Michael Winiarski: Knife -sharp for Poland’s presidential election
In the first election round, Warsaw’s long -time mayor Trzaskowski received 31.4 percent of the vote, compared to 29.5 percent for his main rival, historian Nawrocki. On Sunday, June 1st, the two will fight for the 40 percent of voters who voted for someone else on May 18.
Judging from the latest election forecasts, the position between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki is either quite equal or with a distance within the statistical margin of error. A measurement from Opinia24 shows that Nawrocki gets 47 percent and Trzaskowski gets 45 percent. Another (Ipsos) gives a dead race of 47-47. This means that only 6-8 percent have not yet decided.
The election campaign has so far been a severe miscalculation for Trzaskowski and his liberal supporter in Donald Tusk’s government party citizen platform. A few months ago he was in clear leadership towards the political newcomer Nawrocki. But in the first round of elections, the management was in practice eradicated. In addition, the outer right candidate Slawomir Mentzen won 14.8 percent and the even more extreme and anti -Semitic Grzegorz Braun got 6.4 percent.
More than 21 percent of the Poles thus voted on the ultra right. The middle and left parties included in Tusk’s government coalition together had to settle for about 14 percent.
This means that Nawrocki has a greater potential to increase, by collecting votes from the right that together received 51 percent of the vote in the first round.
The uphill is steeper for Trzaskowski, who does not have an equally obvious voter basis to conquer votes from. As vice chairman of the citizen platform, he is also associated with the increasingly popular government Tusk.
Nawrocki has steadily risen in the measurements, despite several less flattering revelations about his background. First it was a dirty apartment deal, where it turned out that he was tricked a home of an aging. Then it also emerged that 15 years ago he was an active battle for the football hooligans in Lechia Gdansk.
When I speak with officials In Trzaskowski’s campaign staff, they do not stand under the chair that they are nervous. But they have not let hope go. Until June 1, a lot can happen.
Much depends on that Trzaskowski can attract left -wing voters, even though they are disappointed that the Tusk’s government has not delivered on election promises, such as lightening the abortion ban. General mobilization is also of great importance. In the first round, voter turnout was 67 percent of the voters, the highest figure in the history of democratic Poland. It will be a tough challenge to get more than that out of the sofas.
At the same time, it is far from given that Mentzen voters automatically go to Nawrocki. As a conservative in social issues (for example, abortions), Mentzen is closer to Nawrocki. But as a business -friendly libertarian on financial issues, he is closer to Trzaskowski.
There is a lot standing At stake next Sunday. With Trzaskowski as president, Poland can continue to restore the democratic rule of law that the national conservative party law and justice (PIS) dismantled during eight years.
The election is also attentive from both EU and Moscow. In recent years, Poland has become a heavy player in the region, especially after Russia’s attack against Ukraine. With Tusk as Prime Minister, Warsaw has been again welcomed into EU cooperation. With the third strongest army in Europe, Poland is an important front state against an aggressive Russia. But with Nawrocki as president-both EU skeptics and more hesitant to strong support for Ukraine-that position would be weakened.
Read more:
Michael Winiarski: A cold shower for Poland’s EU-friendly government
