MFIs, following the results of the first quarter of 2025, showed a drop in issuing loans
Microfinance organizations (MFIs), following the results of the first quarter of 2025, showed a fall in the issuance of loans, not due to seasonal factors. MFIs are forced to reduce the level of approval of applications for loans under regulatory pressure, so by the end of the year the trend is unlikely to change. In this situation, the MFIs of banking, as well as those related to marketplaces, feel most sustainably: even taking into account the fall in the issuance, they will be able to provide the entire sector for profit growth by 5-15%, experts say, and the market share of such companies can grow from 47%to 70%.
The largest self -regulatory organization in the microfinance market – the SRO “Mir” (unites 33% of the market participants, which account for 80% of the total portfolio of microloans) – summed up the results of the first quarter of 2025. The Central Bank data for this period is still inaccessible. According to the statistics of SRO “MIR” in the first quarter, after a long period of growth in microloans, a decrease was shown, dropping by 4% to the previous quarter, and amounted to 328 billion rubles.
Reducing issuance at the beginning of the year is not seasonal for MFIs. The last time the issues showed negative dynamics in the first quarter of 2024. “It was a period of limiting macroprudentic limits on loans. Therefore, the MFI “slowed down” the issuance during the adaptation and restructuring of the processes within the company, ”the“ world ”explained.“ Thus, the trends of the past quarter occurred due to legislative changes. Prior to this, negative dynamics was observed only in the fourth quarter of 2022. ”
At the same time, the dynamics of MFIs outputs much more positive than that of banks. According to the analytical company Frank RG, the situation in the banking sector looks much worse. So, in the cash loan segment, the most similar in meaning to MFI loans, the fall of the issuance lasts three quarters in a row – since July 2024.
The decline in the issuance of MFI loans in the first quarter of 2025 is associated with several factors, says Olesya Kiseleva, managing director of the Lime Credit Group Group of Companies (IFC Lim-Zaim). “Firstly, this is a sharp increase in rigidity in the approval policy: about 80% of applications from new customers and 30% of repeated refusal. MFIs focused on minimizing the risks, outlining potentially problematic borrowers, ”she continues. In the second quarter, the decline will most likely remain. After the holidays, activity is traditionally reduced, and the conservative policy of the MFI exacerbates the situation, Olesya Kiseleva notes. In her opinion, a decrease in approval level will continue. The regulator actively promotes the concept of “smart” lending, demanding from players a more responsible approach to issuing loans. “We expect more to preserve current trends,” says Alexey Imhovik, CEO of the IFC “Summit” (“Dobrosham”). “The volume of extraditions in the second quarter we expect at the level of the first,” he notes.
“Our forecast involves an increase in the issuance of 60%, to more than 2 trillion rubles, according to the results of 2025,” said Ivan Uklein, senior director of banking ratings of the RA. In 2024, the profit of the industry decreased by 7% and amounted to 36 billion rubles. According to expert RA, the increase in profit in 2025 can be 5-15%. However, the potential of the accelerated profit growth rate is present from the banking MFIs that issue high -margin products (see Kommersant on April 23).
According to Mir SRO, at the moment, the share of banking and MFIs of marketplaces accounts for 47%, for the first quarter their share increased by 3 p. “In 2025, such market participants, according to our expectations, will again increase the volume of issuance and will take 70% of the market for this indicator,” said Ivan Uklein. According to Roman Makarov, General Director of the IFC, Roman Makarov, already according to the results of the current second quarter, their share in the total portfolio will exceed the share of independent commercial MFIs. According to the results of 2025, the share of the portfolio of banking MFIs in the total portfolio can reach 55-60%, thereby exceeding the non -bank MFIs, MoneyMan CEO Artem Bykov believes.
“As for the influence of a decrease in the volume of profit on profitability of the MFI in the first quarter, the deterioration of financial results is possible, but only in the short term. Globally, I believe that the observable situation should not adversely affect their indicators, ”says Gennady Fofanov, general director of the Invoskaf investment platform.“ The MFIs are quite capable of adapting their business models to current conditions, which will be expressed in more flexible approaches to lending and communicating with the client sector. ”
