Mexico’s avocado farmers fear the day that Trump enters his rates

The green hills, as far as the eye reaches, stand out against the very dry fields that lie like a discolored tablecloth. Over a bumpy sandy road, winding through the landscape like a snake, the pick-up truck of Antonio Ayala, avocado farmer from the mountains of the Mexican state of Michoacán. A wide dust cloud slowly descends on the green leaves of the avocado trees on either side of the road.

The heart of the avocado industry is called Michoacán. Avocados that are of very high quality due to the volcanic soil. The largest buyer are the United States: around 85 percent of the fruits go to the northern neighbors. The import duties of 25 percent, which the American President Trump hangs as a sword of Damocles hanging over the Mexican economy, would be felt loudly here in every possible way.

« Not much of their guacemole is left! », Ayala laughs aloud. If the US introduces rates on Mexican products, fewer avocados will be exported, he predicts. « Someone has to pay those taxes. The Americans are not going to do that. Neither are the transporters. So it ends up on the board of the avocado farmers. »

Ayala has an avocado plantation of three hectares. The period in which an avocado grows until harvesting can be done takes at least a year, says Ayala. A farmer can choose to let the fruits hang a few months longer, for example if the market price is not good. « That is what is happening now. There is a lot of uncertainty in the sector. The price for a kilo of avocados has already fallen 15 pesos. That is a lot for us. »

« The government must do more to protect us, » he continues. « We are one of the most important industries for the Mexican economy. The uncertainty that the American government entails must be taken care of by the Mexican government. But they remain silent. »

Ayala gives gas again and sets a course for Urrapán, the city from which daily trucks full of avocados make the long trip to the US. A few ripe fruits fall from the trees in the wake of the racing truck of Ayala.

Rollercoaster

Entering import duties on Mexican products is a weapon that Trump is constantly threatening. On the day of his appointment, the Republican President President of 25 percent promised all products that were exported from Buurlanden Mexico and Canada to the US. It is a violation of the USMCA free trade agreement, negotiated and signed in his first term by Trump himself.

In February, Trump announced that they would postpone these rates for thirty days, to give Mexico the opportunity to achieve tangible results in the field of migration and the smuggling of Fentanyl. The Mexican authorities sent ten thousand soldiers to the border, took record quantities fentanyl, handed out dozens of drug bosses and ensured that the number of illegal crossings to the US fell to the lowest point in years.

It turned out not enough: on March 4 the taxes were still introduced, to withdraw them again a day later and postpone them until the beginning of April.

It is a rollercoaster that has a major impact on the Mexican economy, says Gabriela Siller, head of economic analysis at the Mexican bank base. « We see that foreign investments are declining. The threats of Trump ensure that investors are waiting for what will happen. Instead of 1.5 percent, the economy will grow by only 0.8 percent this year, we expect. »

We started exporting more to the US every year. We have given them the position of power they now exploit

In 2024, Mexico exported more than 505 billion dollars to the US, 83 percent of the total export of the country. It underlines how enormously dependent Mexico on the US. A dependence that Siller calls a legacy of previous governments. « (Claudia) Sheinbaum has only been there since the end of last year. But the previous governments have not done anything to diversify the economy. Hardly work has been put into chatting ties with Europe and other markets, » she says. « In fact, we started exporting more to the US every year. We have given them the position of power they now exploit. »

Siller emphasizes that the Mexican government has no other option than giving in to the sometimes excessive demands that the Trump government sets. Nevertheless, she wonders whether the taxes will be introduced in a month, as announced by the US,. « Also for the US these taxes ensure inflation and less growth. But Trump will continue to use this weapon. »

Millions of kilos to the US

With 90 hectares of avocado trees, Los Lobos in Uruápan is one of the largest plantations in this region. Furthermore in the mountains of Michoacán, the owners have another two plantations, with another 110 hectare of avocado trees together. In the nearby Jalisco region, land is also bought to plant avocados. Despite the current uncertainties, avocados are a profitable product with a large market: in 2024, Mexican farmers exported more than 120 million kilos of avocados to the US, worth more than 3 billion dollars.

Today there is plenty of harvesting. Men are under the leaves of the avocado trees, they have aprons to which pouches are bound. With long sticks with fishing nets at the end, they pull the avocados that are ripe enough between the branches. The leaves rustles, sometimes a dull taste can be heard when an avocado falls to the floor.

With his arms crossed, Juan José Tamillo, agricultural engineer on the plantation, approves how full pockets are emptied in crates, and then dragged by two men to a truck.

« To be honest, I am not worried, » says Tamillo. « Avocados are called the green gold all over the world. People eat them everywhere. If the US does not want our avocados, we are looking for other markets? » In front of his eyes, the doors of the truck are closed, which is now filled to the brim with crates. « The problem is only the distance. The avocados that are harvested here are on the board of an American in Texas or California within 40 hours. If we export to Europe, India or Dubai, the fruits will arrive less fresh. »

Tamillo comes from Uruapán. He sent agricultural science at the local university and has never done anything other than working with avocados. « The challenge is in the market. Because we export to the US, we are demanded that the quality is high in all respects. » Tamillo says that American inspectors visit the Plantage several times a year. Anyone who wants to export to the US without taxes, as part of the still applicable USMCA agreement, must meet the requirements of the American market.

When the men with the aprons and long sticks have left in the wake of the truck, Tamillo starts to talk softer. « These guys come here from the region, we pay them a day. If we can no longer lose the avocados, for example because the US is no longer profitable because of the taxes, those guys will be the first to feel it. Because if we don’t earn it, we have to fire people. »

He points to the dust cloud that has left the drove away truck. « That’s how it always works. Ultimately, the people who earn the least are hit hardest. »

‘We do everything they ask’

The truck drives down the site in the distance. The next stop is Aztecavo, a factory a stone’s throw from the plantation. The company specializes in packaging avocados, after which the boxes, with names such as Toscana Avocados and Green Goddess, are again loaded into trucks. The drivers then drive the 1,100 kilometers to the locations of Supermarkten Walmart and Costco on the American side of the border.

The avocados that have been harvested this day on Plantage Loobos have just arrived here. In a cooled hall, men and women are waiting, mouth caps and hair nets. With flashlights a first check is done to see if there are no flies or worms between the fruits. A few avocados are cut open for an extra check. The crates are driven to a huge machine with hand trucks.

Sebastián Velasco, foreman at Aztecavo, is visibly proud that his company can export to the American market. « The checks here are strict. In the field of hygiene, we must meet all requirements. » He points to a number of boxes, also packed with avocados, which are set up further down in a corner. « They don’t satisfy there. They are used for the Mexican market. »

Velasco shows how remaining leaves are cut with the hand of the avocados. « Women’s work, because they have a finer motor skills. » Then the avocados roll through a machine that makes twenty photos per second of the fruits. Damaged fruits automatically fall due to a hatch. Fruits that are too small also fall off. At the end of the band, the avocados fall into the American supermarket boxes. « Good, right?! », Velasco laughs. Then, more seriously: « We adhere to all the requirements for export, do everything the Americans ask of us. Why would you want to impose import duties? »

Every day people come to ask if they will still have a job in a few months

He points to the full boxes. « Every day a hundred trucks leave Uruapán, with thousands of kilos of avocados, to the US, » says Velasco. According to him, the reports from the US cause uncertainty within the company. « People come to ask every day if they will still have a job in a few months. And every day we have to tell them that we cannot promise anything. We do not know what the rates for impact have on this industry. But that they will touch us, and with that very Uruapán, that’s for sure. »

Velasco is starting to list. The women in the company, often single mothers. The men who have to maintain entire families. The buses with which staff are picked up and taken away every day. The stalls outside the factory, where the employees get their tacos during the break. The truck drivers who drive to the US. « Even the restaurant owners and car buyers here in Urapán will notice if the avocado industry is hit here. » Then, with a nervous smile: « Do they not want our avocados in the Netherlands? »

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