Mes, why don’t Salvini’s failure to ratify the spread? Politics and markets, what has changed

The Sheet Dedicate to Matteo Salvini an editorial that it is worth mentioning massively. Beyond the sprinkling tones towards the League leader – who sooner or later should also reflect on why so much of the country is a stove of him – it is useful in fact to think about What changed from the short season in which Salvini dominated On Italian politics, with complicity – but also with the brake – of the 5 stars. Italy, according to the terrible definition of Giuliano da Empoli, is The Silicon Valley of populismsand in fact we also invented the prototype of the European one of the ten years of this century, which reached the apogee with yellow -green government (Count 1). The key word – even if not the only one – is always spread.

Trump and the « Panicans »

In the last three months, it is the premise of the article that the starting point offers, or in the first three months of Trump 2, we saw how a few words of the American president were enough to upset the markets (whose operators, as this newsletter explained, were stamped by Trump Col neologism of « Panicani » Until their panic forced the erratic leader to late but significant corrections).

The effects on the spread

The Trump administration, writes the Sheet« It is for us Italians a sort of déjà vu on a global scale of what has been in 2018-19 the Conte 1 government. To each version of the « Government contract », to each declaration on the will to break the rules of the stability pact or which evoked the exit from the euro by the two vice premiers Di Maio and Salvini, The spread was gone. The statements of the trusted men of Matteo Salvini, supporters of the NO euro line, such as Claudio Borghi and Alberto Bagnai (now comparable to the ultrà Trumpians of the duties Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro), while Minister Giovanni Tria tried to dispense common sense (a bit like the Treasure Secretary Scott Beesent does)».

What has changed

But that something very important has changed for Italy demonstrates the comparison between the effect of the League sorties of the time and that of today. In these days, both Salvini and his Eurofobi dioscuri have returned to launch Fire and flames on the MESthe European stability mechanism which, although reformed, Italy continues to block by preventing any access to other countries (Here the point by Valentina Iorio: what MES is, how it works and why Italy continues not to ratify the reform). But despite the League trio he asked to leave the Mes and to « recover the money » that Italy paid you – «  »A decision that for the function that MES has in the architecture of the Eurozone It would be the prelude to the exit from the euro», Warn the Sheet – In Europe no one has made a plissé: «This time the spread did not get angry, on the contrary it went down to 100 points. Yet Salvini is vice -premier of the Meloni government and leader of the League, exactly as at the time of the Conte government».
How come? The answer is terrible for the League but excellent for Italy: « The indifference of the markets is the perfect measure of how politically Salvini has politically today: not even a spread point».
However, think about the League leader, it makes sense to think about the reasons for his decline. They can identify four of them four:

1. The political suicide of August 2019when Salvini broke up with Conte thinking of voting and immediately repeating 34% collected to the Europeans two months earlier. Instead He was immobilized in the health cordon Promoted by Renzi with the reversal of Conte 2 and the casual passage of the premier from the alliance with the League to that with the Democratic Party. And he lost the lottery ticket he had in his pocket.
2. The entry of the League into the national unity government led by Mario Draghiafter the two count. Perhaps The best thing ever done by Salvini For this country, but badly managed, with the continuous questioning of the premier’s moves – in particular on Covid – also shared by the League governors. A choice of government spoiled by the opposite masking, so as not to be climbed by Giorgia Meloni. But this ambiguity it was out -of -the -one.
3. The continuous sliding towards the far rightboth in Italy and in Europe, with increasingly Eurofobe positions and the recruitment of a character such as General Vannacci.
4. Giorgia Meloni’s effectiveness and luckwho has made on his role as a single Draghi opposite and crossed his moment of ascent with the political vote, in September ’22. Since then there was no more match: The League reels below 10% and brothers of Italy sails around 30.

Riding, Meloni had and wanted to file his populism, at least abroad and at least until Trump’s return. Salvini gave her the role of « moderate right »but she does not seem resigned to losing values ​​and representation (also) of the extreme right. So certain saved He cannot officially share them, but not even the condemnation. On the other hand, it is a tactic that has allowed her to « triple him ».
The real game between the two It will now be that of the next regional ones (between autumn and spring). The rendering of the accounts. Because despite his peremptory ascent, Fratelli d’Italia does not guide any of the five northern regions governed by the center -right, and the League claims not to yield Neither Veneto nor Lombardy.

Now, if brothers of Italy has a historical function that is shared even by those who would never vote for itthat is to put this certain Northern League transition once and for all, the claim to represent the Northwith attached the threat of the agitated session for decades and now converted into permanent stress inflicted in the country in the form of an « autonomy » that only the League players want And that is indigestible to anyone who cares about an idea of ​​Italy. That function has not yet been properly carried out, the League has been fiercely reduced but remains necessary for the premier to make majority. And keeps in the north a completely disproportionate share of power.
If melonism wants to glue power, and wants it, it will necessarily have to wipe out all this. Will have to take the North. To then definitively free from Salvini’s votes to govern even without him. And deliver the Northern League to history.