Massacres in Syria can lead to worse violence

The fact that the unrest has flared up now may be due to the fact that it is a difficult situation for mainly the Alawites, which after the fall of the Assad regime retreated to their areas in northwestern Syria. They are accused of committing atrocities during their time in power, they were employed by the state and in the army and have lost their living. There is a breeding ground for violence.

– Now they have been sitting at home for two months and are unemployed and desperate, and only have their Kalashnikov, says Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at FOI, the Swedish Defense Research Institute.

The violence started on Thursday with that the government's security forces were attacked. Subsequently, these and allied groups have struck back and killed and executed several hundred alawites, in regular massacres, where women and children were also killed.

According to the Syrian Human Rights Observatory, SOHR, 311 civilian alawites have been killed in the coastal region of « security forces and allied groups ». The total death toll is up to over 520 people, of which 213 were security personnel and fighting.

According to Aron Lund, the government is squeezed from two directions, it must show hardness to the followers of the fallen regime, but at the same time prove tolerant to minorities to appease the west and be able to unite the country.

But the governing HTS rebels, with Ahmed Al-Shaara at the forefront, which has a background in the terrorist group al-Qaeda, at the same time abhors the Alawites. The management does not have control over the footmen in the security forces, and there are many different armed groups that do as they please.

– Now the security forces have blocked the roads to prevent more groups from going to the Alawites. I would think that this is calming down and that the government forces that are under Damascus control will be guided by it.

– But the risk is that it laid the foundation for major violence, and that many Alawiter believes that they are facing a genocide, says Aron Lund.