Martin Liby Troein: After the 2026 election, Ulf Kristersson will make the unthinkable

The conclusion was immediate: Europe is facing an epoch -making divorce from the United States. Friedrich Merz could not have been clearer Following JD Vance’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference in February, where the US Vice President has raised EU’s liberal democracies.

It is no longer possible to trust the United States, the German Christian Democrat realized.

When the voters said a few days later at the ballot boxes, Merz made his promise to keep the government debt down at all costs on the junk pile. There was also the Social Democratic SPD’s Talk about That you did not intend to sit in government with the CDU leader.

Negotiations between Germany’s two state -carrying parties immediately started. Before the new Parliament even assumed, they got rid of the constitutional debt brake to be able to invest in the defense. At a record card, they then got an agreement on a coalition government. This week, Friedrich Merz will take over the chancellor post.

Germany has had large coalitions before. Angela Merkel then ruled for most of her 16 years in power. But this is something else.

Then it was about parliamentary emergency solutions. The parties have since spent time binding each other. This time they agree that Germany should use their muscles. To kick off the economy, which is in an extended recession. And to equip. 80 years after the end of the Second World War, one should free yourself from American addiction. Germany will travel, and pull up all of Europe.

Because in Berlin it is realized that Donald Trump’s return means that we are facing something new. You still don’t really seem to do that in Stockholm.

The government has announced Strongly increased defense appropriations, yes. But it was telling that Ulf Kristersson (M) at the press conference where it happened emphasized that the goal is to end up with exactly the proportion of GDP that NATO, and by extension Washington, requires – as if it was about keeping the United States, rather than making sure that we in Europe manage to secure us on our own.

Otherwise, the government’s press meetings are mostly about how the Tidö project’s agreed points are progressing.

In Berlin, it is realized that Donald Trump’s return means we are facing something new. You still don’t really seem to do that in Stockholm.

You have only a unity government in a crisis, has been Ulf Kristersson’s mantra when a collaboration between the Moderates and the Social Democrats has spoken. Then one may wonder what to call this state, with war in Europe and an American president who attacks both US democracy and the world economy and turns his back to the country’s friends.

On the other hand it is Hard to imagine something worse than a government with both the Swedish Democrats and the Left Party. In principle, a unity government only aims to keep the country together, not to bring about changes.

But no one advocates one. However, the arguments for S and M are to rule together stronger than ever.

They already have a majority in the chamber today, and it will judge be significantly greater after the next election. In fact, S and M collected support in opinion polls have not been as large as it is right now in a decade – about 55 percent is higher than any Swedish government has been given in modern times. It would give an actionable rule – where only two parties need to compromise with each other – with a strong popular mandate.

The Social Democrats and Moderates are also closer to each other than ever before. When it comes to gang crime, they do basically the same analysis, which has resulted in them- for good and evil- in principle triangulating almost all differences in migration and criminal policy.

Above all, they would have the ability to solve a number of fate issues.

In order to fix the climate change and secure the competitiveness of the business community, a strong expansion of electricity generation is required. This, in turn, requires good and stable conditions for both wind and nuclear power. And only S and M can offer it.

SD hates wind, MP and V do not want any nuclear power at all, KD and L want to build an unrealistic number of reactors in record time. If none of them are given a veto, it is quite easy to imagine a reasonable compromise.

The arguments for S and M to rule together stronger than ever.

But above all, it is about the security situation and what it means for Europe: a sharp deepening of EU cooperation will be needed. The Union members will need to discuss nuclear weapons. We in Sweden should take the step into the euro.

This is not something that is done in the company of Sweden Democrats, or for that matter left -wing parties.

After Donald Trumps First hundred days – with the violent attack on the transatlantic link, the US democracy and the open economic order – we have a new situation. And a new crucial dividing line in European politics: between those who believe that JD Vance’s speech in Munich was « Incredibly liberating » And those who want Europe to switch up.

Magdalena Andersson does not close any doors to Ulf Kristersson. In fact, she seems to see Denmark’s Social Democratic Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen – who is currently reigning with the largest bourgeois party – as an inspiration.

But Ulf Kristersson has so far been completely uninterested. He would prefer to paste the Left Party on Andersson.

And it is easier for her to stretch out a hand, in the knowledge that she is likely to pinch the prime ministerial post in such a constellation. And he found another path to it in the last electoral movement.

Is it really wise to force Magdalena Andersson to take Nooshi Dadgostar in the boat?

The question is how long His quartet exists. And if it disappears after the next election: Is it really wise to force Magdalena Andersson to take Nooshi Dadgostar in the boat, instead of liberating her from the V leader and gaining influence over politics?

One should be careful about prophecies in politics, but here comes one anyway: Ulf Kristersson will talk about his side in politics until the polling stations close. But in September 2026, when the voters said thank you and hello to the Tidö project, then German crisis awareness will have reached Sweden and the Moderates as well.

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