Loading ports of the Russian Federation Russian oil increased by 22% compared to week by week

The decrease in freight rates caused by the return of European shipowners to the Russian oil transportation market and the formation of tonnage surplus increased last week the loading of Russian oil terminals at once by 22% in relation to the decline. Separately revived the transportation of oil against the backdrop of the solution of the Turkish tupras refineries to return to the purchase of Russian raw materials through the Baltic ports. Analysts are waiting for a relatively stable exports against the background of growth of OPEC+ and high seasonal demand.

The average daily load of the ports of the Russian Federation Russian oil from April 14 to 20 increased by 22% compared to a week by the week, to 423 thousand tons. This is the maximum indicator over the past three weeks, follows from the report of the center of price indices (CCI). In the conditions of the increased presence of Western shipowners in the Russian market, the competition for the transportation of Russian oil intensified, the Central Civil Procedure Code notes.

So, says the senior analyst of the CCI, Alexei Politov, among carriers of Russian oil appeared shipowners based in the EU countries or G7 or having an insurance coverage of the liability of shipowners (P&I), drawn up in the EU or G7 countries. Also, he notes, the share of the Greek fleet is noticeable in the transportation of Russian fuel.

The analyst indicates that market participants expect the growth of the presence of Western shipowners while maintaining the price of Russian oil below the ceiling of $ 60 per barrel.

According to the CCC, at the end of last week, the average Urals price in Russian ports was $ 54.9 per barrel, according to the results of March – about $ 59. Such conditions allow Western shipowners to work with Russian raw materials, the analyst states.

According to data Bloombergthe average level of marine shipments of Russian oil in four weeks, expired on April 20, increased by 2.9% more than four weeks, ending on April 13 – up to 3.21 million barrels per day. The agency reports that growth was due to an increase in oil supplies through Kozmino and Primorsk.

The loading of the Baltic ports increased by 16.1% week by week, to 181 thousand tons per day. The main increase fell on the port of Ust-Luga, where the average daily load increased from 48 thousand to 95 thousand tons and became maximum since the beginning of the year.

The largest Turkish Tupras refineries resumed the purchases of Russian Urals after its stop at the beginning of the year due to US sanctions. According to data Reutersthe plant acquired three parties with a volume of 100 thousand tons with shipment from the Baltic ports, the first is already directed to the consumer. For shipowners, this means activating traffic on routes from the Baltic to the Turkish ports and the return of demand for capacitance, noted in the CCI. According to the center, the loading of Novorossiysk has also increased from the beginning of the year to the maximum. The indicator has almost doubled – from 34 thousand to 75 thousand tons per day.

At the same time, from April 7 to 13, a decrease in export of Russian oil was observed by 15.1%, to 347 thousand tons per day. Alexei Politov explains that in early April, the fall of global oil quotes was recorded, which led to a sharp decrease in Russian oil and ESPO prices by about $ 9 per barrel.

Therefore, market participants associate a decrease in oil shipments with the reluctance of its implementation at low prices, he adds. Now the CCC is observing the increase in prices for Russian varieties and the restoration of shipments.

Senior BCS analyst Kirill Bakhtin says that the consequence of the latest US and Great Britain sanctions in relation to the Russian raw material was expanding the Urals discount to Brent by $ 4–5 per barrel in February – March 2025, in addition to $ 10-11 in the fourth quarter of last year. With significant volumes of supply of such an increase in the discount, it is enough to actively create new chains and, as a result, reduce the discount due to the appearance of competitors in delivery schemes, he adds. In the coming months, Mr. Bakhtin expects relatively stable export supplies, because, on the one hand, OPEC+quotas increase, and on the other hand, demand will grow into a traditionally high summer season.

According to the analyst, due to the sanctions of the European Union against Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk, introduced in February, discounts in the western ports of the Russian Federation have grown and are still stable. At the same time, the expert of the financial university under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor Yushkov notes, sanctions against ports do not affect the number of shipments, but on which tankers the raw materials are transported. Now, when the price of Russian oil is below $ 60 per barrel, new tankers are connected and will continue to do this while maintaining the price, he adds. However, if the price of Russian fuel was higher than the G7 ceiling, it would still be shipped, but already a shadow fleet, Mr. Yushkov is sure.

Olga Semenov