Let’s make « North Stream 2 » again great? Why does no noise around the project again
In the White House, they argue that as a prompt of the Kremlin to an agreement for Ukraine to use a proposal to cancel the sanctions (Introduced by Donald Trump in his first term) against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, such as « speaking with Putin Billy » for « Bully Domo Rubio and the President of the President The Washington publication « Politico » claims. In the same publication, the two deny that there is such a thing at all.
At the end of March, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow and Washington were discussing the two Baltic « streams ». The Kremlin spokesman said on Thursday that there was no negotiations with the US or Europe about more Russian gas supplies, but left an open door for it. « This is a commercial question. If buyers are interested, if the transit routes work, then of course, the seller will be ready to discuss all this. No one refuses or deny anything, » Dmitry Peskov said. A day earlier, he was quoted in an interview with the French magazine « Le Point » that « Gazprom is ready to renew deliveries » because « we know that there are certain countries in Europe that want to buy from us. »
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But the European Commission works rather on how to do it (for example, with the introduction of duties) market unprofitable imports of Russian gas, put an end to the purchase of liquefied Russian gas by 2027 and how to terminate more valid contracts with the Russians without legal consequences for the European company. Given the impressive political risk of Gazprom’s return to Europe, it does not seem like customers want to be burned with a desire to take it, though Reuters tells a few days ago about small German companies that would not mind. It is difficult to see the US interest in losing deliveries for an already won share of the European gas market when Donald Trump expects Europeans to buy US oil and gas for $ 350 billion.
Why, in this case, did the increasing talk of a potential American interest in the remains of the Baltic Bottom from North Stream have emerged for months?
German Minister of Economy Robert Habek even said this week at an energy conference in Katowice that « it is a public secret that there may be negotiations between Trump and Putin’s boys. » At the end of his term, he warned not to negotiate through the head of Europeans about the future of the underwater gas pipeline.
It is also no secret that three pipes on September 27 on September 27 and Nord Stream 2 are heavy, but not irreparable, damage. Recovery (in the event that they are used) would cost € 633 million. The calculation was presented on December 20, 2024 in a Swiss court by Transliq AG, managing the local Nord Stream 2 AG company, which went into the insolvency procedure in March 2022 due to US sanctions.
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There are also pipes – Ostsee Zeitung (OZ) announced this week that in a warehouse in an industrial zone in Lubmin (Mecklenburg Province – Front Pomeranian), there are about a thousand pieces of nearly € 25 million.
The position of the German government against the use of Nord Stream 2 is unlikely to change with Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But in the Bundestag there are voice supporters of this scenario in the face of the opposition « Alternative to Germany » (at the moment it is even the most popular party in the country), as well as among some MPs from the ruling CDU « in the event of just peace in Ukraine. »
The country does not import Russian LNG to its terminals, but receives one from a mix with other sources of its connection to the gas pipelines to France and Belgium. This does not make Berlin’s position absolutely categorically on this occasion. The version has emerged again that Nord Stream 2 can be used if it is no longer controlled by a Russian company, ie. If Nord Stream 2 AG is bought by an American, say.
It can be said that there is already one and it is called Stephen Lynch. The name of Miami -based entrepreneur with his investment campaign Monte Valley Partners is listed in Politico’s publication as one of the Lobbies to the new administration in Washington. He has experience as a buyer of an energy infrastructure belonging to Russians – in 2007 he bought a part of Yukos at a large discount, then acquired Sberbank Schweiz (the Swiss branch of Sberbank) and is now applying for the US Department of Finance for a license to negotiate. His logic « If you can’t prevent it, lead it » follows the dilemma for and against the return of Russian gas with the idea that the second will happen.
Another of the lobbyists (and acting separately from Lynch) was Matthias Varnig. The former Stasi agent has been sanctioned by the United States, but with US investors, it tries to have President Trump’s environment, Politico added.
Sergei Vaculenko Foundation Carnegie commented on Nord Stream 2 that interest in it has also intensified because the Kremlin is trying to include alleged economic benefits for Washington in the detention of Trump’s team in negotiations to normalize US-Russia and fate Ukraine. But since there are not many suitable projects available, the gas pipeline is probably the only example to quickly demonstrate business cooperation between the two countries. It also helps that the main negotiator of the Russian side is the designated business experience – incl. In the US – Kiril Dmitriev, the president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with other countries.
| He has a fertile ground for work – Trump himself, to some extent Vice President J. D. Vance and the White House people when they come from the investment business and understand diplomacy as a transactional relations: you find a bargain, you make it, you quickly finish it, increase the value of the acquired asset, you win, you go out of the deal, you move on. |
« When he looks at the Russian -Ukrainian conflict and his role in it, Trump’s team thinks primarily about what dividends – and in direct, commercial, and not in a figurative political sense – he can extract, » Vaculenko commented.
| « Dividends may not be so big, but work without a fee seems to be contrary to the principles of this team. Accordingly, the Trump administration is looking for where and how to take its share of conflict sides to settle the conflict. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians understand this concept: in the vast spaces of the former USSR, this role is » |
Ukraine is a difficult time in the war and that is why the agreement has emerged, suggesting the US involvement in almost all state revenue – from the production of raw materials to the right to the first refusal to export these goods. But Vladimir Putin cannot, even if he wants to offer something extraordinary at the moment, which is valuable here and now. He is obviously ready to continue the war and in economic difficulties, including reducing civilians, ie. Access to a market with 140 million Russians does not seem as attractive and requires patience for profits. Of the same order was the idea of a new aluminum factory to a specially built dam with a hydropower on the River of Enisei – a project that would make a profit in many years.
Over 40 years of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine ended what follows
But for payment for intermediary services, it seems a profitable asset that is currently not worth, but it can acquire one if peace is established in Ukraine.
Another suitable project was the Sakhalin-1 and the Kardo Sea for oil and gas extraction with the participation of ExxonMobil. But a number of factors – market and geopolitical – are currently making unattractive similar Arctic projects.
Asked the US, the US would give up its LNG share in Europe Vaculenko responded with the Goldman Sachs forecast that in 2026-2030, and probably afterwards, the supply of American gas would outstrip demand, which will reduce the price and profits from it (with relatively high costs of transport to Europe) abroad.
There are also internal American scenarios – even before Trump’s second and final term of office ended, the search for the internal market for the power supply of artificial intelligence centers or the president will have to observe the election promise to reduce the prices of the voters and impose a temporary moratorium on the export.
And where is the Russian interest in giving way to such an asset and control over a possible transfer to Europe?
- Putting aside that « Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that the considerations of prestige and status may be more important to it than financial interests, » the Russians would prefer some return to Europe to the current almost position.
- It is not excluded that the Kremlin wants the gas to pass exclusively along Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, thus continuing to isolate Ukraine from the Russian-European energy relations. It may not be necessary to release « North Stream 1 ». But the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Central Europe not only brought revenue from Kiev, but due to large volumes and provided lower prices for the Ukrainian market. Putin would have made all this advantage not to renew. Whether it would be able to predict the Americans with such a condition.
- In any case, Lynch and his team consider this problem in applying for a license and propose to give Ukraine a minority share in the future owner of Nord Stream 2. There is something difficult to predict here too – whether Kiev would accept such participation, which is economically and politically less than direct control over transit through Ukrainian territory.
There are also details such as what jurisdiction the coastal infrastructure of the American gas pipeline in Russia will operate. Will the new owner accept the project to work according to Russian laws?
Like a lot of Trump administration’s initiatives around Ukraine, this scheme raises more questions than to answer, Vakulenko concludes.
