Lessons for Spain How to respond to Trump that leave Canada, Mexico and Denmark | Spain

A liberal economist, with vast experience in central banks, who had never held an elected position. A social democratic policy that has passed almost a quarter of a century chaining charges, including the one at the national cusp. An environmental scientist, struggling in student activism and heiress of a Pope of the Latin American left. Thus presented, it does not seem that the prime ministers of Canada and Denmark, Mark Carny and Mette Frederiksenrespectively, have much to do with each other or with the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum. But they are joined by a thread: the three countries have been subject to Donald Trump’s attacks, the three leaders have firmly opposed and the three live a moment of strong social support.

Although Trump’s return has stirred politics worldwide, Ignacio Molina, a researcher at Real Elcano Institutehe believes that only in the three countries mentioned can talk about a clear Trump effect. « It is impossible to extract a pattern from how Trump influences. The singularities in each country tell a lot. What we observe, thanks to Canada, Mexico and Denmark, is that if there is an attack that awakens patriotic feelings, Trump strengthens those who from power are firm ALBANESE, has advanced the elections to May 3 After reaching his Better approval data in 18 months Just when the debate focused on Trump’s tariffs.

As for the position of the parties in the Trumpist orbit, Molina sees « obvious » that they suffer « Contradictions » When Trump makes decisions against their countries, but they are not necessarily reflected in surveys. Taking as reference the means of polls that it makes Politicalin some cases they go down, in others they go up. In Austria, the Freedom Party falls from Trump’s return. Also the formation of the same name in the Netherlands, although there the trend began before. In Hungary, Fidesz first rebounded and then has begun to fall, just like the Brexiters of Nigel Farage in the United Kingdom. In Poland, law and justice falls slightly, but it goes up Confederation, even more on your right. The brothers of Italy of Giorgia Meloni are stable and alternative for Germany, according to Ipsos. Already with a sample at the polls, the ultras have suffered a batacazo the regional elections of Finland.

And in Spain? There is Trump effect? The barometer of CIS It shows the PSOE, with the 32.6% vote estimation, something above that before the return to the power of the Republican leader, although marking a decrease of almost two points in the last month, coinciding with the tariffs. The low PP with Trump from 28.4% to 26.1%. Vox, which reaches 15.2%, rises strongly from the previous survey (11.7%). The series of 40DB., That does not cover tariffs, draws a PP (from 33.3% to 32.6%) and a PSOE (from 29.9% to 29.5%) somewhat down, while Vox rises (13.1% to 14.1%).

With these data, three specialists agree that it is early to draw conclusions. « In Spain, Trump is still an international issue, » says Molina, who is also a professor of Political Science and International Relations at the Autonomous University of Madrid. Although both the government – with the campaign Buy yours. Defend the ours– Like EU leaders – with calls to Europeanism– They encourage adhesions in patriotic code, the situation « does not yet have a gravity that makes Trump a great vote mobilizer, » says Molina, adding: « Now, if it becomes a national problem, the thing would change. » Change how? In theory, he responds, a crisis with a foreign power provides favorable conditions to the main party in government, in this case the PSOE, which could use the strategy of the Flag effectin the style – spreading the distances – of Canada, Mexico and Denmark. Also in theory, he points out, the party closest to the threatening leader, in this case Vox, would have difficulties, although « a follower of Santiago Abascal for emotional reasons will not stop voting because it does not condemn some tariffs. »

Molina points out that, despite her « counterintuitive » rebound, Vox’s position is delicate: « A priori There are no good conditions for its growth. ”Paco Camas, researcher at Ipsos. For a « patriotic party, » he says, appearing « aligned with a leader who damages the interests of your country is objectively negative. » « In Spain, the entire Trump effect is diluted by our membership in the EU. Changes in public opinion will be slow, and greater the greater the damages caused by Trump, » adds the researcher, who believes that a serious, managed crisis « with intelligence, firmness and prudence, » would reinforce the government. As for the PP, he adds, « if (Alberto Núñez) Feijóo shows clear ideas, he can snatch pragmatic voters from Vox, whose growth now comes to a large extent from abstention, which indicates that there is a part of a protest vote that could be diluted when the elections approach. »

The political strategy expert Ana Salazar observes that Vox’s « rapid reaction », resorting to a speech according to which « PP and PSOE are the same and are to blame for everything because they govern together in Europe, » has tried effectiveness to achieve « for now » avoid wear. “What we know is that if the situation is aggravated, the one in power, in this case the PSOE, will have a lot of maneuvering. We not only know it because crises and risk situations They are Sánchez’s favorite land, but for the experience of other countries, ”says the director of Idus 3looking at Canada, Mexico and Denmark.

Three countries with ‘Trump effect’

When Justin Trudeau announced its resignation on January 6the surveys gave him 20.1%, compared to 44.2% of the conservative Pierre Poilievre, according to CBC News. He painted dark for the liberals before the October elections. But not. The successor of Trudeau, Mark Carney, is today the favorite for the elections, which He has advanced to April 28. What happened? Trump has passed, which before take possession on January 20 insists that he wants to turn Canada into the « State 51 » of his country, and that in March He started by Canada – and Mexico – his tariff war.

The firm discourses of Carney, which combines patriotic appeals with the calls to the unit, have become famous in the country while rising in surveys up to 44%, compared to 37.8% of Poilievre, which now weighs that they call it « the Canadian Trump. » Trump has distributed bad letters for Poilievre, who tries to focus the campaign on the economy, but without success because the external “threat” has become the “key issue,” explains Janice Gross Stein, founder and director of the Mock School of Global Affairs and Public Policies of the University of Toronto. Instead, Carney focuses his message on « his leadership capacity » in the face of that « crisis, » he adds.

Trump also put Mexico in the peephole since before arriving at office, when he said he would put tariffs to the Central American neighbor – ya Canada – to stop the drug arrival and immigrants. « We will always have our foreheads up »Sheinbaum replied in a massive act in the Zocalo. The tariffs They entered into force in March. Result? “Trump has caused a greater nationalist feeling and a jump in support for the president. It has been a political blessing for Sheinbaum, with the highest approval level of any president in 30 years (More than 80%) ”, Explains Michael Shifter, a researcher in the Ideas Laboratory Inter -American dialogue and professor at the University of Georgetown, who stands out how Sheinbaum, which It has been in power for six monthshas responded by denouncing Trump’s abuses without abandoning the negotiating path.

The Prime Minister of Denmark and Trump are old acquaintances. In 2019, the same year that Frederiksen came to office, Trump canceled a trip to Copenhagen After she described her idea of ​​buying Greenland as « absurd ». That crisis did not lower the Magnate’s Greenlande fever, which now exhibits its Annexation wishesto which Frederiksen has reacted with a defense of the sovereignty of the island. The Prime Minister is « as kind as she can, but increasingly firm, » explains the political scientist Jesper Willaing Zeuthen, from the University of Aalborg. His colleague Ulrik Pram Gad, from the Danish Institute of International Studies, believes that this challenge has served him to act as a “strong leader in times of crisis”, a facet that already raised his popular pull during the Covid pandemic.

The mixture of forcefulness and openness to dialogue, which sister her reaction with that of Carney and Sheinbaum, works. According to the monitoring you perform Politicalthe Social Democratic party has risen from 20% to 23% since Trump took possession, a stronger rise than apparent in such a multiparty country. His distance with respect to the second has gone from four to nine points.

Zeuthen points out a success in the way Frederiksen Face to Trump: « It is convincing to communicate that he does not deliberately take advantage of his position to gain popularity. » It is something that Shifter also stands out in Sheinbaum, which he has avoided, « he says – » easy populist victories, « being careful to demonstrate that he does his best to give » stability and certainty « to relations with the northern giant.