Kiev’s dilemma short of patriot and ammunition: defend the factories of weapons, cities or the presidential palace?

From our correspondent
Odessa – While Donald Trump does not seem to have decided what to do yet Regarding his military and diplomatic support to Ukraine, he is clearly explained by the risks caused by this uncertainty is Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst who monitors the war for the Finnish group Black Bird. More urgent theme: the Patriots.

If the Ukrainian army remained without the most sophisticated air defense system of its arsenal« Kiev would find himself having to choose ». And the dilemma would then be between defending a weapon factory, a city (and therefore save human lives), or the presidential palace (to preserve the stability of the country)

Refusal

To give the alarm on the possibility that Ukraine will remain without the Patriot and therefore discovered in front of the Russian attacks from the skywas two days ago the Washington Post. The question begins in March, when Trump refuses to Zelensky the opportunity to buy new batteries accusing him of being « one always looking for missiles ». In the face of the Tycoon move, try to remedy Berlin putting the sending of 100 old Patriot Pac-2 missiles to the agenda to Ukraine purchased from the United States.

The green light arrives on May 20 from the American secretary of state Marco Rubio who confirms: Washington is asking other NATO nations to provide Patriot in Kiev. But the problems are not over. Why The Patriots of Berlin are not enough to let the Ukrainians sleep peacefully. Pac-2 are less effective than the most recent PAC-3 that Washington denies to Kiev because They cannot intercept Russo Oreshnik, the new medium -ray ballistic missile used by Moscow to attack Dnipro in November. In addition, the PAC-3 are designed with a precision aiming technology « Hit-to-kill », of which other systems are without. And they are smaller, lighter and maneuverable.

A gap that would once again leave vulnerable Ukrainian cities. And – he warns the Washington Post -If the only other air defense weapon potentially capable of breaking down Russian ballistic missiles is the Aster, a Franco-Italian missile, it is the theory not yet tested on the field. That the German air defense package can be less effective than the US one is a disturbing scenario For Kiev after Three consecutive nights of large -scale Russian attacks and after the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat explained how Moscow has enhanced its Iskander ballistic missiles with fake radar and evasive maneuversmaking them potentially more difficult to intercept even for the most avant -garde patriots, let alone the older ones.

The warning

But it is not just the anti -aerial. It was March when Michael Kofmanmilitary analyst and senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaking to Financial Times I warn that Ukraine could have remained without US weapons by summer. And now that summer is upon us the problem actually arises. Not by chance Berlin puts the revocation for the restrictions for the use of taurus on Russian soil on the plate.

In Europe they know well how Himars multiple launches provided by the United States that have allowed Ukraine to destroy high -value objectives in Russian territory and to hit the ATACMS up to 300 kilometers away, They now risk staying still. And it is not better with the supplies of the other European allies, such as France and Italy. An anonymous source reported to Mondi That Ukraine has exhausted the ammunition for its two Samp/T aerial defense batteries, the Italofrancese systemwhile the Crotal Crotal ray anti -head systems of Paris sent to Kiev have not received new missiles for a year and a half.

Drones

To feel less the impact of the absence or deficiency of allied weapons is perhaps the line of the front where The bulk of the fighting sees the use of explosive drones that Ukraine produces almost everyone at home. The lack of artillery bullets could be partially compensated by the efforts of Europeans who have put 2 million shots into production. But it is not enough: if the aerial defense and long -hauling systems become less efficient, it is clear how the Russian army can benefit from it thus giving Putin a further advantage on the diplomatic table.