« It is not written that China will be the first power in the world » | Spain

Rafael Dezcallar (Palma de Mallorca, 70 years old) was an ambassador of Spain in Beijing between 2018 and 2024, culmination of a career that led him to Germany, Ethiopia, Russia, Israel, Cuba or the Vatican. In March 2023 he accompanied Pedro Sánchez on his first official visit to Chinawhere the president of the Government will return this week for the third time in two years. The diplomat has overturned his knowledge of the Asian giant in a book, The rise of China. One look at the other great power (Deusto editions. 2025), which serves as a travel guide for the disoriented reader in a convulsive world. « TO China Do not demonize it. That means not understanding why he has grown up as he has done. But you also have to speak clearly when their behavior is not acceptable. ”

Ask. We assume that China will be the first power in the world in the coming years. Is it an irreversible process?

Answer. In recent years, serious problems have emerged in the Chinese economy. One is the real estate bubble; another, the demographic decline, which is aggravated by the refusal to accept immigrants; Also the low productivity of the public sector or the indebtedness of its provinces. My conclusion is that nothing is written. It depends on how good they do and good, or badly, that we do it.

P. Tariffs imposed by Trump to Asian countries Can you throw them into China’s arms?

R. It can happen. Trump has tried to avoid the diversion of Chinese products through those countries, which have tried to protect China’s growth because they are close. Now that balance can be broken.

P. With 1.4 billion consumers, China could live on its domestic market.

R. Perhaps the most serious problem of the Chinese economy is the lack of trust. China has a very low consumption and that is due, among other reasons, to the absence of a social security network. In a country in communist theory and with great inequality, the lack of sufficient social services leads people to save in case or have to send the child to study.

P. China presents itself as an adalid of free trade but does not apply it to itself.

R. Although something has been opened in recent years, the Chinese market is very closed. They are not just tariffs, there is local preference, subsidies, non -transparent contracts. The Chinese have to understand that trade must be beneficial for both parties. What happened to the solar panels cannot be repeated, that the European industry was laminated by a brutal subsidized Chinese import.

P. China does not just assume its international responsibilities.

R. For me there is a very revealing example. Although there was a pandemic that originated in China and had dreadful effects worldwide, The Chinese have not accepted an impartial international investigation, Establish the causes of what happened so that it is not repeated again. It seems unacceptable to me.

P. You write that in China a kind of « social contract » operates by which freedom is sacrificed in exchange for prosperity.

R. Confucianism is a cohesive element, by subordinating the individual to the community. If there were a serious deterioration of the perspectives of economic growth, that could affect the opinion of the population. There are already generational differences. Young people do not value what they have as their parents. If the basis of economic legitimacy deteriorates, there is another agglutinating factor, which is nationalism. The Pcchino is different from the Soviet, practices self -criticism, has a real meritocratic system, fights corruption … but the last control resort is repression and, if it needs to apply it, it does not blink.

P. ¿A visit like Sanchez is useful?

R. Spain and China have a good bilateral relationship, an interlocution capacity that allows you to pass difficult messages. Do not forget that, for the Chinese, the economy is political.