Is Trump back on the duties? What happened and what are the important numbers

« Maybe on the duties we made a little wrong ». With this sentence on Tuesday 6 May the President Donald Trump admitted for the first time that his commercial strategy may have had harmful consequences for the American economy. Promises « flexibility », knowing well that this approach will mean chaos, as has been in the last 5 weeks, from the so -called liberation day, which April 2nd He officially launched the United States Commercial War against the planet.

Two key numbers They probably triggered this partial movement: the contraction of 0.3% of GDP in the first quarter, compared to +2.4% marked in the last 3 months of 2024, and a commercial deficit exploded to $ 140.5 billion in March, new historical record. According to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, The goods deficit reached 163.5 billion (16.5 billion more than February), While the surplus in the services dropped by 800 million to 23 billion. Trade with China has been collapsed at the minimum for five years, but the one with most of the partners (from Mexico to India) has risen to the maximum. A race to import to anticipate the duties, which aggravated the commercial imbalance.

So much noise for nothing? It will be seen. So far the commercial policy of the Trump administration has generated significant economic and diplomatic turbulence. The start kick of the new wave of protectionism dates back to February with duties of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, suspended and then reintroduced in March, when it dates of 25% were extended to all countries on steel, aluminum and cars. On April 2, With a real show, armed with a blackboard, Trump announced « mutual » duties between 10% and 50% of 180 countries. Essentially He wanted to punish the countries with which the US have the highest commercial deficits.

At the European Union they touch rates of 20%because the EU is accused of imposing rates of 39%. But these are to say the least questionable. At Vietnam, for example, by 46%. China is affected by additional rates of 34%. For global markets it is a mullioned window, including Wall Street. So much so that the large bosses of the major American companies, from Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, the first US bank, to Larry Fink, number one of Blackrock, the major savings management company, take the field. They ask the president to back, except for a lot of money from trading, as he will emerge from the quarterly accounts of the greatest financial institutions.

Treasury Minister Scott Bessentformer Hedge Fund manager and partner of George Soros, flies to Mar-A-Lago in Florida, on the weekend to convince the president to take a step back. Who arrives on April 9, one week exactly from the liberation day. In the morning, with the markets again in free fall, the president with a post on his social truth invites « to buy actions ». Then three hours later, suspends all mutual duties for 90 days, lowering them to 10%, except for China, against which customs taxes rise to 125%.

The markets celebrate: A Wall Street the Dow Jones rises by 7.9%, the Nasdaq index gains 12.2%. A group of democratic parliamentarians accuses Trump of market manipulation and insider trading. In a video stolen in the oval studio of the White House and published on X you can see Trump himself arguing that Charles Schwab, driving one of the most well -known brokerage companies, has earned 2.5 billion that day. At the US commercial war, Europe alternates diplomacy for threats: hoping for a friendly agreement, it takes time, but after mutual duties announces retaliation on assets imported from the USA for 26 billion, which yesterday increased up to 100 billion, after the EU commissioner to trade, Maroš Šefcovic, made several missions to Washington without results.

Note that the closure to the west opens new roads to the east: The EU reopens the channels with India, Indonesia and South Korea to reduce the addiction to the United States. The president of the Ursula von der Leyen Commission, accompanied by the EU Prime Minister Antonio Costa, flies to Samarkand to explore new markets in the center of Asia. And yesterday United Kingdom and India signed a called historical commercial agreement. On the Chinese front, however, the commercial war remains at the highest levels: at American rates climbed up to 145% (with temporary exemptions on smartphones and some electronic products after the protests of the Apple Tim Cook CEO), Beijing reacted with duties of 125% and has limited the export of rare lands to the USA, hitting tourist flows. Yesterday Trump claimed that « China wants to treat, we will meet at the right time. But the agreement must be fair ». For now, however, everything is stopped.