Is Trump a « Taco »? Perhaps XI and Putin think of yes (and the consequences could be devastating)

You may have read the story. Here’s how the correspondent of the Courier from the USA, Viviana Mazza: «A reporter asked Trump what he thinks about the term »Taco/Trump Always Chickens Out»(Trump always pulls back for fear), recently coined by the opinionist of Financial TimesRobert Armstrong, and which is becoming popular among the Wall Street analysts to describe the trend of the markets – who collapse after his duties threats to go up when he gives up and gives more time to negotiate. The American president did not like the question at all, he called it one of the most unpleasant who can imagine: « Ask a malicious question like this. It’s called negotiating: you establish a number, a ridiculous number, and then you already go a little, a little. « 

Trump and his « art of the deal »: dollars and not values

In short, other than fear, it would be a studied negotiating strategy. A chapter of his « art of the deal », the ability to make agreements.
It must be said that Armstrong himself now says he is a little worried, fearing that, on the alive point, Trump of (healthy) marches back, in particular on the duties, now he no longer does it (unless the judges impose them). However, it is perhaps worth taking a step more, widening the perspective. Because Trump, notoriously, is convinced that international relations can also be managed as commercial relationships.

The so -called approach «Transactional», That Aamer Madhani, correspondent of the Associated Press for the White House and surroundings, had summarized as follows:« For Trump it is a question of ability to exert pressure, not friendship; of dollars at least as of values; Of hard power against soft power. (…) politics and presidents, to a certain extent, are always transactional. But Trump, who contributed to making a name giving a polished to his image of intrepid real estate businessman, is going to another level in navigating in an increasingly complicated world. The Republican President, in his previous life as Titan in the real estate sector, saw every contract as a pact in which there were clear winners and losers. In his return to the White House, a style approach « What do I earn? » Is introducing more evidently?  » in his relationships with friends and enemies ».

Foreign affairs? They are still business

Also the appointment as a plenipotentiary for Ukraine and the Middle East of a former immobiliary player like him, Steve Witkoffis the confirmation that, for Trump, foreign affairs are, after all, even business.

The historian Edward Franrtzof the University of Indianapolis, however, explained to Madhani, with a sports metaphor, because things are not exactly as the tenant of the White House thinks: Trump, 78 years old, baby boomer and American football fan, seems to be inspired by his foreign policy to the ethics of the legendary American football coach Vince Lombardiwho notoriously said: «Winning is not everything. It is the only thing « . « But diplomacy, especially in a complicated world, can be more similar to football – says Frantz -. Sometimes you need a draw. Sometimes it is only necessary to survive and go on ».

The not always winning tactic and Trump’s showers

For example, the doubt, seeing the periodic threats of abandoning the negotiation on Ukraine if he does not go as he says, is that, when he thinks he does not win, Trump is attempted to abandon the game, taking the ball away and perhaps leaving that everything degenerates in a fight. And it is a doubt that is strengthened concerning the video investigation in which Mondi He asked himself if Trump is a really good negotiator. It emerges that so much the real estate donald that Donald President play, after all, always the same four cards:

1) intimidate by leveraging the relationships of strength;
2) speak directly with what the boss considers;
3) follow what the instinct is said;
4) Break the schemes.

From the treatment reserved to Volodymyr Zelensky in the oval studyto the trust in the power of phone calls with Putin and XI, to the proposal of a « Riviera Gaze », it is not difficult to find the scheme. But does it work?

In the business of the real estate Trump, yes and no, given that, together with the successes, some not negligible financial reverse had it. As for international relations, there is an uncomfortable previous Trump I that Trump II prefers not to remember: His attempt to agreement with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-unto block the race to the bomb. First there were the threats.

Then the three face to face (inevitably defined as « good, very good ») and the handshakes « between leaders » that no one would have expected. But, in the end, he changed anything. Kim continued with his rearmament and his nuclear and non -nuclear experiments (albeit with alternate fortunes) and he has also allowed himself to send a few thousand of his soldiers to fight with the Russians on the Ukrainian front (according to some observers, he could even tear a very advantageous agreement to him soon and very dangerous for all the others right from Trump: here an article by Victor Chas on Foreign Affairs).

Chat and distinctive? The risks with Putin and XI

Whether it works or not, there is no doubt that the « Trump method » likes electric and American voters, who have elected him twice as president (even if, in all probability, without having foreign policy on top of his thoughts). And, in dealing with « strong men » and dictators, it is not that all its predecessors to the White House can wave applause curriculum. The real question, however, is: what happens if they are Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping To think that Trump deserves the Taco label?

After all, that’s what he wondered Danilo Taino, on Courierspeaking of Taiwan: «The ambiguity, in diplomacy, works until someone interested decides to test it. This is what is likely to happen in times not far to the famous « strategic ambiguity » of Washington compared to Taiwan status. (…) The American president had to have raised the tones with Putin and the Ayatollah and then make a low -level transaction, XI and the Communist Party would be convinced that the same would do in the Far East in the event of their attack on Taiwan: strong rhetoric and then trap with Beijing. The American president with ambiguous policies risks losing ambiguity where it takes most ».

The calculation error

Reasoning not too different is that of Philippe Gélie who, in an editorial on Le Figarospeaking of the relationship between Trump and Putin stuck to the American president a perhaps even worse label from Taco: « The swindled consenting ». «Donald Trump seems to go from one disappointment to another with Vladimir Putin. The first error of calculating the « King of the agreements » was to believe that a phone call would have been enough (from head to head, we add to us, editor’s note) To reconcile him with the master of the Kremlin: peace in Ukraine would naturally follow, as a secondary question resolved immediately by their reconciliation.

When he realized that the question was more complex, the Head of the White House made all the possible concessions (out of any diplomatic scheme, which would like any concession to be made during, not before the negotiations, editor’s note): Ukraine would not have restored the lost territories and would remain out of NATO; Echoing the Russian request for a change of regime in Kiev, Volodymyr Zelensky was described as a « dictator » and publicly mistreated in the oval study (intimidation, editor’s note). All this has not yet been sufficient to reassure the Tsar. The only gesture – not even a concession – that was asked, one ceased for thirty days to start the negotiations, was welcomed with a save of unprecedented missiles and drones.

The American is playing with his irritation and his outbursts (perhaps because a Putin who « seems to be crazy », contradicts what, on the Russian president, had always told him the instinct, editor’s note), but without following following his threats of sanctions, nor questioning the goal of reconciliation with Moscow. Not enough to impress the Kremlin, where the kind words addressed to Trump exudate condescension, sometimes judging him « emotionally overwhelmed », sometimes « informed evil » ».

« Whoever scams who » in the geopolitical chaos of Trump

On how it could end, Gélie’s forecast should not, at this point, be surprising: «Having produced only mirages, the » sheriff « of Washington is now threatening to make a bundle and leave the others to hurry up alone. This is exactly what Moscow’s strong man wants: to reduce the involvement of America in the Old Continent, leave Europeans to their safety deficiencies and isolate Ukraine as a prey to his mercy « .

Only one doubt comes to the French commentator: «We wonders if the novell of the White House has been cheated by the veteran of the Kremlin, or if the two are hoping at the expense of Europe, which both detest. Zelensky fears it is so ».

In any case, the risks of the « Taco effect » remain: « What the President of the United States does not seem to see is that the contempt of the Russian extends to his country and himself. From Moscow to Beijing, Trump is seen as an accelerator of the decline of America, which makes him a man paradoxically treated with regard by those who do not wish him anything good ».

Paraphrasando Andreotti, to think Taco gets a sin, but it can be a trouble if you get right.