Is Bitcoin a safe harbor or not yet? – Diepresse.com
Bitcoin still moves strongly in harmony with the stock markets, but the correlation has recently decreased.
We are now seeing how Bitcoin decoupled, ”cheered an enthusiastic Bitcoin fan on the platform X on Saturday last week: The stock markets had fallen deeply after the escalation of the trade dispute by US President Donald Trump, gold had also fallen for a short time, but Bitcoin had increased and at times even skipped the $ 85,000 dollar. Bitcoin followed the depths to land at the black Monday at $ 74,000.
Techatter caught harder
That didn’t happen for the time being. On Saturday, the prize settled between $ 83,000 and $ 84,000, similar to Trump’s customs announcements. The stock markets got worse. Gold, however, climbed to a new record high of $ 3,200 per troy ounce (31.1 grams).
However, Bitcoin had given in before the customs escalation and moved away from his Jännerhoch, in the wake of the large technology shares that had also corrected before Trump announced his high tariffs. While the oldest cryptocurrency has slipped by 13 percent since the beginning of the year, it gained individual technology values much worse. Tesla fell by 35 percent Apple has lost 24 percent Nvidia 21 percent, alphabet 19 and Amazon 18 percent. Only Microsoft And Meta got better through the crisis than Bitcoin.
Target group online trading
But how strong is the correlation with the stock market really? In the early years of Bitcoin, which started in 2009, the young asset was largely independent of the stock exchange fluctuations, and it was hardly seen as an asset class. But from 2017, many small investors came onto the market – the same target group that are also customers of online brokers and deal with hyped technology shares there. And so it happened that Bitcoin at times had correlations with the US share index S&P 500 from 0.6 to 0.8. This is a fairly high value on the scale from 0 to 1.
In March 2020, Bitcoin fully came into the suction of the Corona fear and crashed even more than the stock markets, namely by 53 percent, while the minus was limited to a third in stocks. In the case of the stock markets, the concern could be explained that many feared a serious economic crisis with an impact on the corporate profits due to the global lockdowns. At Bitcoin, many still worried about survival. But Bitcoin and stock exchanges quickly recovered again.
Horror year 2020
In the crisis year 2022, when the Ukraine War broke out, inflation huldown and the central banks did such strong interest increases as they have not been for decades, the US stock index S&P 500 fell by almost a fifth, while Bitcoin lost two thirds of its value. However, the bear market, which Bitcoin records every four years, randomly fell into the same year, as well as the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto tour and the collapse of some crypto-assets such as Terra-Luna. No wonder that Bitcoin couldn’t decouple, especially since many investors saw it primarily as cryptocurrency.
The latter has now changed. Many investors clearly distinguish between Bitcoin, which has no central instance and whose rules can only be changed extremely, and other crypto projects that are spent by someone and often do not have the goal of being digital money, but enabling certain explanations on platforms. They can be technically overhauled or fail, they can also be very successful, only you do not know in individual cases – similar to individual shares. The realization that Bitcoin is different from the other crypto values has probably also contributed to the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the USA, which means that investors can now invest more easily in these two values, as well as the fact that the USA has created a strategic Bitcoin reserve that can also be increased, while the other values (including Ethereum) only « stock) see that you don’t want to increase.
Bitcoin is not crypto …
Among investors are increasingly becoming aware that the Bitcoin tends to come back after strong fluctuations. Hardly anyone fears a total failure. With other crypto values, trust is even lower. You don’t have to strive for the Trump token as an example that the new US President has spent on and who now costs a tenth of his highest course. The second largest cryptocurrency Ethereum is only traded by a third of the record from 2021. Bitcoin recently had a market value of 63 percent on the cryptomarkt, as data from Coinmarketcap.com show.
… and not gold either
It should still take a while before Bitcoin is perceived as a safe harbor like gold. After all, gold has 5000 years of history as a value memory, Bitcoin only a 16-year-old. But a lot has happened even in the 16 years. Bitcoin is now considered detached from the cryptoma market as its own asset class, which is safer than « crypto ».
What does that mean for the next few months? If the current stock market crisis is still really worse by, Bitcoin will not be able to decouple. It is also unlikely that it suffers as much as in 2020. You have to tremble more for the well -being of individual companies.
