Is a Russian attack possible against Finland?

Even before Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron said that in conversations with him, Putin had repeatedly used the term « Finlandisation ». A term indicative of the Russian obsessions for « domination » above « nearby abroad », of which, alas, Bulgaria is also not excluded.

After 1886, the dethronement of Prince Alexander I Battenberg Principality of Bulgaria was spared by the fate of the vassal « Grand Finnish Principality » (1809-1917), as well as by violent Russification only thanks to the steadfast resistance of Stefan Stambolov and his adherents who set their lives. But what New Bulgaria escapes at the end of the 19th century, is not saved in the least after 1944 and the injuries, if judged by today’s Bulgarian politics, continue to be present. They even grow into a kind of « Stockholm Syndrome » in the circles of Bulgarian Russophilism.

But the term « finelization » is quite specific as it is used in a different context. Its author is considered the Austrian Foreign Minister Carl Gruber, who in 1953 strongly opposed such a future for his country – a « special vassal relationship between a strong armed neighbor and a small neighboring state ». Because after 1948, this is exactly the situation of Finland, which has been difficult to soften its relationship with the neighboring « brute power » for decades.

The last anxiety signals

The clump of Russian troops for several months along the Finnish border has awakened in Helsinki a lot of concerns about the thoughts of the Big Evil neighbor.

All this may be just a game of nerves. And so it is. A kind of punishment for the fact that Finland (along with Sweden) joined NATO. Because Putin, instead of writing his eyebrows, allegedly « disarming » Ukraine, actually took his eyes, and the Russia border with the North Atlantic Alliance only after Finland’s membership in the Pact has grown by about 1300 kilometers.

Accordingly, in the last week we have been watching « the empire responds to the impact. » And the trend according to satellite photos is quite disturbing. Here are just some of the examples that give Finnish military analysts.

In Kamenka, about 60 kilometers from the Finnish border, a tent camp with 2,000 Russian soldiers has been crucified. And with this shortage of living force in the war against Ukraine.

Another indicative example: huge halls are being built in Petrozavodsk, and satellite photos show the deployment of tanks and armored vehicles. The construction of these facilities has accelerated since the beginning of April.

To the north of the Arctic Circle, in the Northomosk -2, a large helicopter Russian base is urgently built – a project frozen in 1998. Finnish historian Emil Castelhelmi in his analysis indicates that there is a huge drona base there, and for this purpose the realms of the Kremlin from any of the Kremlin is the neighboring areas.

Does Putin think of provocation in the fall? To test Article 5 – the mutual clause of the NATO Member States – relying on the fact that Donald Trump will prevent US forces from responding? And this is part of the « bargain » for the fate of Ukraine?

Satellite images confirm the concentration of Russian forces near the border with Finland

The Finnish War of 1939-1940

Analogies, as we know from Aristotle, are not historical evidence, but they do allow us to be more clearly oriented in the present. In this sense, the case with the « Winter War » of 1939-1940, which Moscow leads against neighboring Finland, is particularly indicative.

In September 1939, World War II erupted and soon Poland was divided between Hitler and Stalin. According to the secret clauses of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact (since August 23, 1939), Finland is in the field of interests of the Russian zone. That is why since October 1940 the Soviet press and diplomacy began its cannonade against the small northern country.

Stalin, like Putin today, wants to get his « his ». But how? By asking the « security security ». It turns out that the huge Soviet Union is under a real threat and the source of this threat is not another but Little Finland.

A conversation was preserved by Stalin with the members of the then Soviet Defense Committee, recorded in the memories of Marshal Mertskov, Chief of the Leningrad Military District. He recounts how in October 1939 Joseph Vissarionovic walked back and forth, burning his pipe and reasoning aloud. There were two coalitions in the world – the « German » and « Anglo -French ». At some point, one of them would use Finland, which, under their guidance, would attack their large neighbor. Therefore, Moscow’s measures and counterattack should be considered urgently. Did the Soviet Marshals believe that Little Finland could attack the huge Soviet Union, whose army almost exceeds the Finnish population?

Finland’s fate was resolved. The propaganda machine has been released at fast rpm and is only looking for an occasion that is not a minor detail. Because the USSR, like present -day Russia, is never an aggressor. This is a peacemaker country. Accordingly, every war of Moscow is « imposing peace », implemented by other means.

Soon TASS reports to the world that the Finns – in their preparation for war! – They attacked a Russian part of the border, several Red Army were killed. Shame and shame! But the Red Army was always prepared for aggression, so the tanks (then with Petolas, not the letter Z) on November 30, 1939, invaded the northern state.

It turns out that the task is not as simple as they imagined it in the Kremlin. There is a single railway line from Leningrad to Murmansk, which cannot quickly transfer the necessary living force. And the Finns have the « Manerheim line », reliable enough shelters. Their soldiers are equipped for a winter war, skiing and determined to defend their land.

Meanwhile, Moscow is launching its « Plan B ». Stalin presents to his marshals the famous Comintern figure and Finnish communist Otto Kuusinen. He turns out to be the head of the « new Finnish government » and comes out with a « prepared proposal » to the Finnish people. It says that the Soviet army is coming to release the Finnish people from the bourgeois reaction and the military click. The words « fascism » and « Nazism » are then used carefully, since the Soviet Union has been an ally with the Nazis for one year.

Kuusinen has a National Union program – for the first time, the Finnish will unite with the Karelians living on the other side of the border. Thus, Finland will become part of the USSR. And the union will happen in the great and vast country that occupies one sixth of the world. There will be a Finnish democratic socialist republic. There is even a prepared capital of the united country, but in Soviet territory – in Zelenogorsk. Therefore, the « Soviet-Finnish government » calls on the Finnish soldiers not to fight for the criminals who rule them, but to go to their homes or to give themselves in captivity where their life will be preserved.

It is announced that with the « new united Finland » there will be a non -aggression contract by Moscow. That she will be given « comprehensive support » – economic, political and social.

However, the « military operation » does not go according to the preliminary plan. Then Stalin again convenes the marshal and asks: How long will the new Finnish army from Karelia (supported by the USSR) win old Finland? The Marshal of Armed Forces Voroshilov replies that everything will end for 12 daysS Stalin is pleased, of course. He even generously relaxes for the operation whole « two weeks ». Like Putin in February 2022, this is not the case.

Moscow’s losses are huge. They are still arguing and the truth is silent. About 120,000 Russian soldiers leave their bones in northern land. A Finnish journalist in time describes how young Russian soldiers with glazed eyes will contemplate the cold Finnish sky forever.

Then it was the « Molotov Cocktails ». For the Finns, this war is national and patriotic. In response to their stubborn resistance, Soviet aviation carries out brutal bombing over Finnish cities. USSR is off as aggressor On December 14, 1939, from the Society of Nations (a precursor to the UN) on December 14, 1939, the World Press reports that the Russians commit war crimes over civilians. In response, Soviet diplomacy leader Vyacheslav Molotov cynically told foreign journalists that Moscow does not throw bombs over Finland, but « bread baskets » for starving locals.

Moscow’s wars even then were « humanitarian operations ». In response, Finnish citizens welcome Russian tanks with bottles of ignition mix with which they want to get Molotov. Cocktails to the food lowered from the sky.

During the war, the small Finnish army melted, no ammunition. The plan for the « Western » (Franco -British) military aid – Sweden and Norway refuse to miss such a military contingent through their territories.

Moscow sends more and more troops. Meanwhile, the government of Otto Kuusinen melts and disappears into nothingness, just as suddenly as it has emerged. From the Soviet documents, the declassified documents today, it turns out that his ambition was even greater – to create a Scandinavian socialist republic, which would include Norway, Sweden and Denmark. But the stubborn resistance of the Finns fails these plans.

And after the Second World War, the principle of « fineization » was continued. From an essay by writer Sophie Oxanen, I realized what this meant to the Finns themselves, this « iron grip of Moscow », despite the Western economic model. Anyone who wanted to succeed in Finland must have avoided topics considered « anti -Soviet » and not annoy Moscow. The children studied textbooks in which there was a glory for the « big brother », the freedom of the media on this issue was greatly cut. « Finland, » she writes, « is so arranged that it will always back down if Russia growls. »

Today, the attitudes in Finland are radically different. Only Russian appetites do not subside. How long?