Iran has not yet approached a functional nuclear weapon
What we know about the Iranian nuclear program.
Tel Aviv, BRATISLAVA. Israeli attack on Iranprimarily on its nuclear infrastructure, also raised questions about whether Iran actually reached the functional nuclear weapon, even for a few days, as it is according to New York Times They claimed the Israeli armed forces.
One of the goals of the Israeli attack was the uranium enrichment facility in Nanan. Tel Aviv is so according to NYT He decided to hit the heart of the nuclear program in Iran. In addition to the facilities, he has also targeted the highest -built people of the Iranian nuclear program.
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The experts did not match on Friday whether the terhoran regime really divides only days from the ability to build a functional nuclear weapon.
« Analysts say Iran would be able to get enough cleavage material for a weapon in a few months. Others said it can do it within one or two weeks, although many admit that building a nuclear weapon would take longer, » she wrote in an analysis Council for foreign relations.
Similarly, Tomáš Nagy, analyst of GLOBSEC, commented on the situation for SME. « The consensus is such that it is unlikely, » he said, stressing that there is a relatively long technology route between the enrichment of Uranus and the ability to build a nuclear weapon.
In the article you can read:
- What we know about the Iranian nuclear program so far,
- How far could be from getting a weapon,
- As we would find it already.
Iran spoke about peace. Then he changed it
The Foreign Relations Council recalls that Iran has been working on a nuclear program for more than five decades, and most of that time claimed that the program is focused on non -military purposes.
« Nuclear weapons in our doctrine have no place, » the government spokesman said in April 2024, but in recent months, however, Tehran officials have changed the rhetoric and began to talk publicly about the need for nuclear weapons.
In 2015, the United States concluded an agreement with Iran in which Iran in exchange for the release of sanctions agreed to reduce uranium stocks and reduce the degree of enrichment. While in nuclear power plants he was enough to be enriched with more than 3.5 percent, he would need 90 percent for a nuclear weapon.
In 2018 the US under the leadership Donald Trump From this agreement they resigned and Iran started to work again on a nuclear weapon, at least according to observers.
The events were accelerated by the Maya report (the International Atomic Energy Agency), which published a report stating that the amount of nuclear material enriched by nearby ninety percent in Iran increased by about 50 percent in three months.
The amount would be about ten nuclear weapons, Iaea said.
Tomas Nagy claims that although Iran has not yet reached sufficiently enriched uranium, « a goal of 80-90 percent, that is, one that could be used for the combat head, they would be able to realize in a very short period of time.
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However, he points out that public information information is not publicly available. « However, we know that Iran has a very functional ballistic missile program. To date, we know about fourteen different types of shots with a very relevant range in range. These are the weapons that have a range to hit Israel.
The American Foreign Relations Council cites former US Minister Antony Foreign Affairs Blinkenwho said in June 2024 that Iran could produce enough cleavage material for the production of weapons within one to two weeks.
He also writes that Iranian ballistic missiles may have up to 2000 kilometers, which would mean that they could also intervene part of Europe.
« If they want to have a functional nuclear weapon, it is not only about the enriched uranium, but also about a functional head that is sufficiently miniaturized, AO carrier and integration of individual components.
The next step would be to train military units and set the nuclear doctrine. Only then could Iran speak of Iran as a nuclear power, says Nagy.
Nuclear test would not hide
If Iran had a nuclear weapon and tried it, according to Nagy, something like that could not be concealed. The test would also be revealed by isotopes in the atmosphere and seismic shocks that would record the stations far beyond Iran. In addition, news information must be added directly from Iran.
« We have seen this for several years back in the case of North Korea, » says Nagy, according to which such a test would certainly be captured by CTBTO – the organization for a complete prohibition of nuclear tests.
However, the expert doubts that Israel can destroy the Iranian nuclear program completely from the air. Many Iranian nuclear facilities are fortified or are underground. However, the Iranian program has been sure to slow down the Israeli attack.
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Both states, according to Nagy, have escalated the situation in the past so that they are legible and keep the door open to de -escalation.
« Israel has put Iranian leadership against a crucial role. If they go to negotiations, they will go to them in a very weak geopolitical position. After they have suffered this attack, they will be very difficult to demonstrate their strength. A strong position to degrade the military capabilities of Iran.
In addition to the facilities, Iran has also lost its high -ranking commanders, which could paralyze its command structure.
Nagy notes that after the last major attack of Israel, Iranian retaliating came in about 25 days, so even now may not come quickly.
However, Iran, according to the expert, must prove some form of defiance of Israel, but they can, at least so far, to defend the damage.
