IOBE: US duties reduce Greece growth – at 2.8% inflation in 2025

In a small review of both growth and inflation in Greece this year, the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) was carried out this year, as recorded in the quarterly report that released today.

In particular, Greek growth is expected to reach 2.2% (from 2.4% previously), while inflation is expected to be 2.8%, from 2.4% earlier, as a result of the imposition of duties by US President Donald Trump.

What do they « see » Retsos and Vettas for Greece

« If and when a state of higher duties is consolidated in international trade, this inevitably increases the costs for products and services, » IOBE General Manager Nikos Vettas stressed to complete:

« It reduces the potential of consumers and businesses. » He also added: « The above implies a decrease in prosperity that we can see by alleviating the rates of growth and higher inflation. Even if this does not happen, the high sharpening of uncertainty postponed investment decisions and especially the medium -term and more productive. « 

Concerning the time of turmoil, Mr Vettas noted that the risk of turmoil in the capital markets is increasing and there is a great volatility in the continuation of a global economy that has fallen very liquidity.

Regarding our country, he noted that « we have returned to pre -crisis levels to many elements: unemployment, real estate, banks, credit rating over the line ».

However, it remains the question of whether the Greek economy is resilient towards turmoil, but also whether there is a momentum to maintain the growth potential of the economy.

For his part, IOBE President Ioannis Retsos estimated that this global turmoil is not expected to negatively affect Greek tourism at least this year. « I think we will do well, » he said, adding that there may be a problem with the medium -term honey if there is a continuation of duties, which will affect Europeans’ income.

The basic forecasts

Regarding the basic macroeconomic forecasts for Greece, the main factors of GDP evolution in 2025 include positive circumstances, such as maintaining the growth potential of consumption (although with obvious signs of fatigue), the lowest cost of money, and accelerating the implementation mainly derived from international developments, such as the escalation of the trade war, the uncertainty about the EU fiscal figures (re -equipment plan), and the maintenance of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.

In particular:

• Assessment for domestic development of +2.2% in 2025.

• Significant enhancement of fixed investment (+9.5%) and a marginal slowdown in private consumption (+1.2%).

• Borderline improvement in current account balance mainly due to the predicted growth. Exports (+2.2%) increase more than imports (+1.5%).

• Estimation for annual inflation (ETK) at +2.8% and unemployment rate at 9.3%

See here the IOBE quarterly exhibition

Source: OT