International Markets: At a critical crossroads with three scenarios
A thin thread seems to be hanging on international markets in the wake of duties on the US imported products by Donald Trump. From Trump’s announcements last Wednesday to the closure of markets on Friday, the most important US brokerage indicators (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nyse Composite) lost from 9.4% to 13%, reaching a very low level, similar to which they were about 20%.
The total losses in the stock markets worldwide amount to about 5 trillion. dollars, while the richest people on the planet have also suffered difficult losses.
The three biggest losers are Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), Jeff Bezon (Amazon, Blue Origin) and Ilon Musk (Tesla, Spacex, X).
On April 3, shortly after the announcement of the duties, which Trump named – Oh, what irony – « Day of Liberation », Trump’s three powerful « bodyguards » lost almost $ 45 billion in total.
Market fear indicators now point to an important crisis that may cause even larger chain reactions.
Already, China « responded » by imposing 34% duties on imports of US products, while in Europe it has burst the debate on the next steps of the Union.
The fragile balances and the risk arise from the consequences that will be on the markets, if for some reason foreign investors (non -Americans), who hold 18% of US shares, panic or anger for some reason.
If this happens and sell their shares massively, then markets can collapse. According to figures from June 30, 2024 of the US Finance Ministry, foreign investors owned 16.9 trillion US shares. dollars and US bonds 12.9 trillion. dollars.
Finally, analysts, such as Deutsche Bank, are processing scenarios (basic, recession, good) for the S&P 500 index depending on the provisions for profits per share of the companies.
