Inflation: Raised to 3.1% in March – What do Eurostat figures show

Inflation in Greece was 3.1% in March (from 3% in February), while 2.2% reached the eurozone from 2.3% in February, according to Eurostat preliminary estimates.

It is noteworthy that our country is rising the largest monthly level (+1.8), which shows that accuracy in Greece continues.

Concerning the whole eurozone, examining the main components of euro zone inflation, the services are expected to be the highest annual rate in March (3.4%, compared to 3.7%in February), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9%) stable compared to February) and energy (-0.7%, compared to 0.2% in February).

Structural inflation, which excludes the volatile energy and non -processed food measurements, also paid to 2.4% per year, from 2.6% in February.

It is worth noting that inflation in Germany has slowed down. Consumer prices rose 2.3% annually, remaining at the same level as the last two months. Economists involved in a Bloomberg poll had predicted an increase of 2.4%. Inflation in France (0.9%) and Spain (2.2%) also ran slower than analysts’ estimates. In Italy, on the other hand, prices rose more than forecasts, reaching 2.1%.

BoG’s ‘uplifted’ prediction for Greece

The Bank of Greece (from 2.5% earlier) sees inflation at 2.9% this year (from 2.5% previously), which implies that the accuracy will be higher than the initial estimates. Based on the new forecasts of the Central Bank, inflation will fall to 2.3% in 2026 (will remain above the 2% limit set by the ECB) to rise to 2.5% in 2027 again.

This evolution is raising slight concern, as we are in the midst of a trade war, which may lead to a new dominoes of appreciation around the world. At the same time, it is worth noting that the BoG is « downloading » and the provision for growth, noting that during the period 2025-2026, the Greek economy is projected to grow by 2.3% and 2.1% respectively (2.5% and 2.3% previously), according to the « Note on the Greek Economy » today.

In particular, inflation based on the harmonized consumer price index will only decrease by 0.1 this year compared to 3% of 2024. By the end of 2026, inflation will converge towards the 2% threshold and specifically to 2.3%, but will remain slightly above. However, 2027 is expected to rise in inflation based on the harmonized consumer prices at 2.5% due to the ETS2 effect on the energy sector.

The core of inflation (excluding volatile energy and food values) is expected to be reduced to 2.2% by 2027, mainly reflecting the inflation of the inflation of non -energy industrial goods and to a lesser degree of services. Of course, it is worth noting that the reported structural inflation will remain at 3.6% this year as in 2024, while in 2026 it will fall to 2.8%.

Source: OT