In Russia, the risk of a crisis of overproduction of new buildings is growing

More than 30 Russian regions have signs of serious overstocking in the market of apartments in new buildings. In many constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the volume of supply significantly exceeds the level of solvent demand: even a decrease in the volume of launches of new projects does not help to avoid an excessive amount of supply. The market participants have one hope to reduce the key rate of the key rate, which should lead to an improvement in mortgage lending.

At the disposal of Kommersant was the study of a single resource of developers (Yerz.rf), from which it follows that in 28 Russian regions a situation was formed in which the risk of the onset of the crisis of the overproduction of new buildings is evaluated as “rather high”. The list of such regions, in particular, included the Krasnodar Territory, the Leningrad, Sverdlovsk and Novosibirsk regions. Analysts also characterize the situation in Russia as a “high -risk” one.

In five regions-the Oryol, Penza and Chelyabinsk regions, the Karachay-Cherkessia and the Krasnoyarsk Territory-the risk is assessed as high, as high as the 21st region, including the Moscow Region and St. Petersburg, the middle one. In other constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the risk of overstocking in the market of new buildings is low or rather low.

The assessment of the probability of the crisis of the crisis of the market was calculated by the analysts of the ERZ.rf based on the ratio of sales and the withdrawal of new projects, the ratio of the normative and actual sales of new buildings. Analysts also took into account the changes in the weighted average prices.

In a number of regions, the crisis of overproduction has already come, said Alexei Gusev, general director of Glavstroy-Nedvystvo.

According to him, developers actively displayed projects in cities with limited demand, counting on stable growth, but as a result, the proposal exceeded the level of solvent demand. “This led to problems with the implementation of housing under construction,” the expert emphasizes.

In January – May 2025, sales of apartments in new buildings throughout Russia decreased by 16% of the year, to 9 million square meters. m, follows from the calculations of the analytical center « Dom.rf ». At the same time, according to this state -owned company, the total revenue of the developers due to price increased only by 2%, to 1.9 trillion rubles. At the current key rate of the Central Bank, it is harder to fulfill sales plans for developers, the share of non -distributed housing is growing, says Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of Metrium.

The market is capable of self -regulation, which has already been expressed in reducing the number of starts of new projects, Mr. Syrtsov recalls. According to Dom.rf, in January – May 2025, developers brought 15 million square meters into the market. m of housing, which is 20% less than a year by the year. But the release of new projects in the presence of significant non -exposed residues increases the already excessive proposal, Ricci consulting company notes. According to Dom.rf, in May 2025, 68% of the housing under construction throughout the country remains non -distributed, a year earlier – 65% below.

Despite this, developers are in no hurry to reduce prices. Developers are limited in the ability to reduce prices due to project financing features using escrow accounts, Ricci notes. Since the funds of buyers remain frozen until the commissioning of the facility, reducing prices becomes financially inappropriate, the company’s analysts explain. The final price is now strongly dependent on the payment scheme: now popular installments, interest rate compensation also affect the final price, preventing it from reducing it, says Natalia Ryzhkin, head of the analytical service of the Redcat new buildings.

The profit from one apartment is only 10-15% of its cost, says Alexey Gusev. According to his calculations, if you provide a discount by the same 10%, the developers will actually stop earnings, and the demand is unlikely to significantly grow significantly. Moreover, the expert adds, « a decrease in prices by one player will pull the rest, and in the end everyone will work to zero without moving the market from the place. » Already now, many housing construction projects are implemented on the verge of profitability, so any decrease in prices can make them unprofitable, agrees the general director of the RCC Development GC Vasily Bulgakov.

The market participants do not expect a deterioration in the situation. Erz.rf analysts predict that in regions with a high probability of the onset of a crisis in the new buildings market, competition will intensify and more flexible price offers will appear. The reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank in June, although only 1 percentage point, leads to a new round of sales growth, says the founder of Sis Development Yaroslav Gutnov. Buyers actively formalize installments, as they are aware of a change in the conjuncture, anticipating the possibility of a relatively quick transition to an accessible mortgage or a quick refinancing, he concludes.

Daria Andrianova