In Russia, an office real estate deficit is growing
In 2025, almost a third less new office space will appear in Russian millionaire cities. In the context of economic turbulence, regional developers are afraid to launch tale projects. At the same time, the opposite situation develops in Moscow: developers in the capital have the opportunity to compensate for construction costs due to relatively high rental rates.
In general, in all Russian millionaire cities (with the exception of Moscow and St. Petersburg), according to the results of 2025, office real estate will be introduced by 31% less than a year by the year, Kommersant reported Core.xp. The total area of such objects will be 28 thousand square meters. m is the minimum value over the past few years. New areas will appear mainly in Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Voronezh and Kazan.
In the regions, there are practically no new business centers due to the low profitability of such projects, says Valentin Kusov, deputy director of the office real estate department of the Nikoliers consulting company.
In conditions of low rental rates in the regions, large office objects will not be able to pay off, and if developers decide to raise the rental rate, then such premises simply will not be in demand, the expert explains.
In Moscow, the situation is diametrically opposite. In the Russian capital, the voluminous segment of the office market has already formed, which allows the effect of the high cost of borrowed funds, the partner of the NF Group consulting company Olga Shirokova adds. This is possible due to high lease rates compared to regional markets. By the beginning of 2025, this indicator in class A business centers A on average amounted to 33 thousand rubles. for sq. m per year, in class B – 25 thousand rubles. for sq. m per year, according to Core.xp.
In the regions, large -scale offices are especially acutely felt, since large federal companies are looking for rooms from 1 thousand to 40 thousand square meters for their branches. m, notes Ekaterina Belova, head of the office of the office premises of the IBC REAL ESTATE Consulting Company. In such conditions, it adds, potential tenants and customers of office real estate in the regions most often consider the option of independent construction of business centers for their needs.
The vacancy in regional business centers according to the results of January-Marot of 2025 decreased by 1.5 p. A year by a year, to 2%, Irina Khoroshilova, head of the office real estate department of Core.xp. The expert adds that the vacancy in the office market of Yekaterinburg, despite the largest supply volume among millionaire cities, according to the results of the first quarter amounted to 1%. The same level of share of free space is recorded in Novosibirsk, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan and Ufa. For comparison, the same indicator in Moscow by the end of 2025 will be reduced by 0.8 p., To 4%, in St. Petersburg-by 0.4 p., Up to 3.2%, predicted to the IBC Real Estate.
The acute shortage in the regions of an affordable office offer, in turn, pushes rental rates for growth.
The cost of lease in class A offices A in million-plus cities, according to the results of 2025, will increase by 15–25% of the year by the year, to 16 thousand rubles. for sq. m per year, they say in Core.xp. However, rates of betting growth are more pronounced in the regions. In the capital, indicators are increasing with restrained pace due to a stable entry into the market of a qualitative offer, says Sergey Okunev, senior manager of investment projects of the NEO consulting company.
On the horizon of the next two years of prerequisites for the breaking of the trends that have prevailed in the regional office market yet, experts surveyed by Kommersant say. The volume of class A offices in Russia in Russia, as a result of 2026, can decrease by 12% of the year, counted in Core.xp. However, according to consultant forecasts, already in 2027 this indicator can increase almost twice a year by a year, to 64 thousand square meters. m.
