In 2027, Europe wants to be completely rid of Russian energy. What does this mean?

The European Commission wants all oil and gas contracts with Russia to be fully terminated in 2027. That is stated in the ‘Reportereu-route‘, A strategy with which Europe should become less dependent on Russia, which presented EU energy commissioner than Jørgensen on Tuesday.

How difficult is it to be completely detached from Russia for the energy supply? And what is the price tag of this for Europe?

Ever since 2022, after Putin largely closed the gas tap to Europe and shot up energy prices, Europe has made frantic attempts to never be so dependent on one or a few countries for energy supply. Europe now has more liquid gas (LNG) shifted from, for example, the United States and Qatar. Also, most member states are no longer allowed to get their coals and oil from Russia. An exception applied to Hungary and Slovakia, they still import a lot of Russian oil.

Although Europe is now less dependent on Russia for its energy supply due to all these measures, Russian gas and oil is still coming in. The import of Russian LNG was even on the rise last year. The share of Russian gas in the gas import of the entire EU is now around 19 percent, compared to 45 percent before the large -scale Russian invasion in Ukraine, according to a press release At the route map. « Oil import has fallen from 27 percent in early 2022 to 3 percent now. »

But in 2027 all contracts must therefore be terminated if it is up to the European Commission. « The war in Ukraine has brutally exposed the risks of blackmail, economic compulsion and price shocks, » said European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in the press release. « It is time for Europe to fully break its energy ties with an unreliable supplier. »

Exciting for Eastern Europe

Exciting is the new route map for Eastern Europe, say gas expert René Peters from the TNO research institute and lecturer energy transition at Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen Martien Visser. Peters: « Countries like Hungary are the most dependent on Russian gas, which flows to them by pipeline. They are not – unlike the Netherlands – by the sea and cannot receive ships with LNG. » Not so surprising that Hungary and Slovakia are not happy with the European plans. Whether they can vote the proposal can still be seen. « LNG will soon be able to flow from other Member States at the sea, such as Greece, to Eastern Europe via pipelines, » said Peters.

Breaking the Russian contracts for oil and gas will now be a lot easier than before the Russian raid in Ukraine

All in all, Europe is ready to get rid of Russia without much energy prices rising a lot, say Peters and Visser. Peters: « Breaking the Russian contracts for oil and gas will now be a lot easier than for the Russian raid in Ukraine; now we can get enough LNG from other countries. »

Gas will become slightly more expensive as soon as Europe is going to lean even more on LNG, the experts consulted say. To make gas liquid, it must be cooled to around 162 degrees below zero, and during shipping a little is also lost due to evaporation. On the other hand, the LNG range on the market will rise. This will have increased by around 200 billion cubic meters, five times more than the current EU import of Russian gas, the European Commission writes. When Europe decided to get less gas from Russia, other countries saw their chance and invested in the LNG capacity. The increasing offer on the market will print the LNG price.

Renewable energy

Member States also have to make more and more use of renewable energy sources, such as wind and sun, with which dependence on (Russian) gas will further decrease. Member States must come up with national plans before the end of this year to phase Russian gas, oil and nuclear energy.

The new plans also have consequences for nuclear energy. The European Commission does not want to depend on Russia for new parts and fuel for nuclear energy. Visser: « Nuclear power stations in Eastern Europe were once built with Russian technology. » Even though those countries can get their split fabrics from other countries, they will remain dependent on Russia for reserve parts.

An important comment With the new route map is that Europe will become more dependent on the United States due to the new policy. They are eager to ship more LNG to Europe. Peters: « In the past that would not have been a problem, then America was our ally. But now, under the Trump government, America uses relationships for his own gain and negotiating tactics. »

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