In 2025, the issuance of a mortgage will be reduced by 30%

Against the background of smooth growth of the portfolio of mortgage loans, the expert RA expects a decrease in the share of early repayments and refinancing. For many borrowers, the placement of free funds on deposits with higher rates becomes a more profitable strategy. At the same time, experts expect a noticeable growth of delay in a mortgage portfolio. However, its share will remain at an acceptable level, and the increase in reservation will be insignificant against the background of banking profit.

Against the background of persistent high rates and limited volume of state support, the issuance of mortgage loans in 2025 will be reduced by 30%, the agency « Expert RA » predicts. Given the fact that, according to the Central Bank, 1.3 million mortgage loans were issued in 2024 for 4.9 trillion rubles, the total issuance in 2025 will amount to about 3.4 trillion rubles. More optimistic estimates by the Domklik service, which expects a mortgage in the amount of 3.8 trillion rubles.

Among the reasons for the decrease in the issuance, the “expert RA” distinguishes “tightening macroprudential regulation in the most risky segments of the mortgage market”. In particular, from January 2025, protection standards aimed at combating risky schemes in mortgages have been enforced, and from July 1, the Central Bank introduces macroprudentic limits (MPL) in relation to borrowers with a high debt load (PDN). It is assumed that at the first stage the restrictions will be affected by borrowers with PDN of more than 80% of their income and having a low down payment (not more than 20%). Even taking into account the fact that over the past year the share of zaksed borrowers has declined, they have a rather impressive mortgage portfolio. In particular, at the beginning of 2025, the director of the Department of Banking Regulation and Analytics of the Central Bank, Alexander Danilov, estimated the share of a mortgage issued to borrowers with PDN above 50%, at 9%.

However, despite the significant reduction in the issuance, the portfolio of mortgage loans, according to the expert RA, will show an increase of 5%, reaching 21.1 trillion rubles. Analysts of the agency believe that this will happen due to low indicators of early repayments. So, in 2024, the share of early repayments already amounted to 3.9% of the total portfolio, which has become a minimum since 2020. According to the results of 2025, the share of early repayments may decrease to 2%. The reason for this decrease is a change in the financial strategy of borrowers who issued a mortgage earlier (as part of state programs or on conditions operating in 2019–2020, when the market mortgage rate was 8–9% per annum). Now a more profitable option is the placement of free funds on deposits. So, according to the Central Bank, in the third decade of March 2025, the average maximum rates for deposits of the largest banks for up to one year were 19.5% per annum, for a period of more than one year – 17.7% per annum.

Bankers pay attention to other reasons. According to the director of the Department of Retail products of Absolut-Bank Vitaly Kostyukevich, due to a significant increase in real estate prices “even at low rates, customers have significant expenses for servicing a mortgage loan, so a significant share of customers does not have the opportunity to extinguish a loan ahead of schedule”.

At the same time, the expert RA expects some deterioration in the quality of the mortgage portfolio in 2025. So, the share of problem loans will grow to 0.8–1% against the background of a slowdown in portfolio growth. At the same time, according to Vitaly Kostyukevich, an increase in overdue debts can also occur due to « that the issuance of new loans occurs more slowly than the repayment of the current ones. » As a result, the volume of portfolios is reduced and, thus, “the share of overdue debts in the total portfolio increases,” he notes. Among the reasons for the growth of the share of overdue debt, the senior director of the group of ratings of financial institutions of AKRA Irina Nosova notes « the ripening of loans, as well as the fact that mortgage loans were issued against the backdrop of mitigation of banks for issues. »

Independent expert Alexei Voylukov believes that the lower boundary of the delay rating (0.8%) is an optimistic forecast. “If the monetary policy will be softened quite actively and significantly, then this is possible. Otherwise, while maintaining the current situation, most likely, the delay level will significantly increase and amount to about 1%, ”he said. In this case, the total amount of overdue debt can reach 160-170 billion rubles, the expert estimates.

Nevertheless, experts believe that such a state of affairs is uncritical for banks. The leading analyst in banking ratings of the expert RA Aleksey Kiryukhin draws attention to the fact that “thanks to the previously introduced measures of the Bank of Russia, such as increasing macro -supplies and tightening the requirements for the initial contribution, the situation remains controlled and does not carry critical threats for the banking system.” The PSB estimates that an increase in overdue debt to 1% “involves additional reservation by about 100 billion rubles”, which with a potential volume of the banking sector of 3-4 trillion rubles. « It looks insignificant. »

Elena Vanyushina, Julia Provivskaya