IMF warns of new economic era – scraping forecast
The uncertain and complex situation after the Trump government’s customs shock means that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not publish any traditional forecast in this spring’s edition of World Economic Outlook.
« Existing rules are being challenged and new rules have not yet been designed, » writes IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in a blog post where he presents the report’s main feature.
The IMF economists choose Instead, to report a so -called reference forecast, based on which you sketch on conceivable scenarios.
The reference forecast describes a future where global growth falls to 2.8 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2026. It is based on the information available on April 4 this year.
It is not a global recession. But this can be compared with 3.3 percent in global growth last year and the IMF economists’ January Emphasis of 3.3 percent in global growth for 2025–2026. According to the IMF, the historical average for global growth is 3.9 percent.
According to Gourinchas, the growth forecast would have only been reduced to 3.2 percent if US President Donald Trump had refrained from the Customs shock on April 2-which resulted in new US-tariffs in about 180 countries and a full-scale trade war between US and China with customs duties of 145 and 125 percent respectively.
The prospects have deteriorated rapidly For almost all countries. And the IMF warns that there is a great risk that it may be significantly worse development than the reference forecast. They also lift warning flags for new large breeds for the value of different types of assets, currencies and dramatic capital flows.
The tariffs that have now been introduced are described as the highest in over 100 years by the IMF’s economists. But if they were to be lowered or removed – maybe replaced by new trade agreements – the scenario can change quickly for the better, Gourinchas adds.
The report is presented in conjunction with the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington, USA, which takes place this week.
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