IMF due

In the circumstances of the greatly increased trade and customs risks and uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shaped half -percentage points for global economic growth for this year by half a percentage point and slightly increased inflation forecasts. If it predicted in January that World GDP would increase by 3.3 percent this year, global growth will be only 2.8 % by new screenings. Even more modest is the revised world trade forecast, which is expected to increase by only 1.7 percent this year.

A noticeable downward correction is also for Slovenia. As early as October last year, we were predicted by 2.6 % economic growth at the IMF, and new projections show that it will be only 1.8 %, which is 0.8 percentage points lower. It is expected to increase growth to 2.4 percent for the coming year.

The consequences of Trump’s customs duties will be most affected by the US itself, which is expected to record only 1.8 % economic growth this year, which is 0.9 percentage points less than the last, January forecasts. Since then, forecasts for the euro area have also been reduced by 0.2 percentage points, which is expected to reach a modest 0.8 % economic growth this year. Our most important economic partner, Germany is expected to experience economic congestion this year, with zero growth, from a low base, as its economy shrinks by 0.2 percent last year.

The trade war will also slow down the Chinese economy, which is expected to grow by four percent this year, which is 0.6 % less than previous forecasts. The consequences of the Customs War and very increased uncertainty will result in impaired economic dynamics worldwide, and according to IMF projections, this year they will most affect US neighbor Mexico and delete 1.6 percentage of economic growth. Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said last week that the world would avoid the recession despite the customs duties introduced.

The global economic system is set up on a new

“The global economic system in which most countries have been operating for the last 80 years is set up and runs the world into a new era. The existing rules are challenged and the new ones must still be created. Since the end of January, a multitude of customs duties have been announced in the United States, first for Canada, China, Mexico, and culminating in almost universal duties on April 2. The American effective customs rate has exceeded the historical levels from the time of the great depression, and the countermeasures of the main trade partners have significantly raised the global customs rates, « the Chief Economist of the IMF Pierre-Olivier Gourichas described in the accompanying blog of new circumstances.

The new economic forecasts are published at the beginning of the Spring IMF and the World Bank in Washington. Finance Minister Klemen Boštjančič and Deputy Governor of the Bank of Slovenia Primož Dolenc will also attend the meeting of world financiers.