Illusion of stability: that keeps Bulgaria from slipping into a crisis and what consequences it will have

The unexpected decision of Bulgaria refuse to sell to Ukraine two reactorswhich were planned to be used to complete the units at the Khmelnytsky NPP, became an extremely resonant event that attracted the attention of Ukrainian readers to this Balkan country.

Against the background of this event, domestic political events in Bulgaria remained almost ignored. And in vain.

The country is at risk of immersing in a deep political crisis. And though The latest attempts of pro -Russian forces to send the government to resign Failed, it should not reassure.

Most likely, the current government only saves Bulgaria from the resignation to the Eurozone entry. And when this goal is achieved, new trials will be waiting for the country.

Split in a coalition

April 15 became a very unpleasant day for a government coalition consisting of parties of Gerb-SDS, BSP and ITN.

APS Party (also known as the DPS-DPS and DPS-Dorgan), which at one time supported the formation and continued to support the existence of the Government of Rosena Zhelazkov, without formally entering the coalition, statedthat the government may no longer count on their support.

The reason for Demarsha is the odious oligarch of Delyan Peyevsky.

APS representatives are dissatisfied with the fact that the government has made little effort to dismantle the corrupt system, which was stunted by Peyevsky impunity.

Instead, the government, according to the APS representatives, continued to use it for repression, and in Bulgaria, corruption and smuggling are still flourishing in Bulgaria, and the judicial system continues to lose its independence.

APS representatives criticized the government coalition for not listening to the consistent calls and insistence of their political force, and BPP and ITN parties violated agreements on the « sanitary border », which was concluded in November last year and aimed at politically isolate Delya Peyevsky and his DPS.

The statement was a surprise, because on April 1, Jevdet Chakarov, chairman of the party group of DPS-DPS, reported journalists that his political force will continue to support the government in the publication of a convergent report on Bulgaria’s readiness to join the euro area (which expected June 4).

However, representatives of the DPS-DPS once again voiced the conditions: the mandatory compliance with the signed agreement on the formation of the Cabinet and unconditional distance from the party of Delya Peyevsky « DPS-a new beginning ».

And these conditions may be in doubt. At least, there were facts of direct or indirect support of the government of Rosin Zhelazkov by the DPS of Peyevsky.

The oligarch party supported the government coalition, ambiguous re -immutations in the government and appointing the positions of persons suspected of relations with Peyevsky.

On the same day representatives of Gerb-SDS, BSP and ITN gave respond. They have declared the continuation of the government’s support by their parliamentary groups and will continue to implement the process of Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone and other priorities of the government formed with the support of the parliamentary majority.

Coalition members also called on the 51st convocation of parliament, who believe that Bulgaria should complete their way to full integration into the EU, joining the eurozone, bringing it with their voices and their work in parliament.

However, the stability of the current government, apparently, has significantly weakened.

And this immediately tried to take advantage of the pro -Russian opposition.

The government in hostages in oligarch

On April 17, the pro -Russian parties « Sword », « Renaissance » and « Greatness » initiated (for the second time!) Voting for votus distrust of the Cabinet of Minis.

Among the deputies who voted in favor were: 33 deputies « Renaissance », 18 deputies of APS, 11 deputies « Sword » and 9 deputies « Great ». That is, 71 deputy.

Among the parties that voted against were members of the government coalition (Gerb-SDS-66; BSP-19; ITN-17) and PPEvsky.

Deputies of the Party continue changes-democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB, 36 seats)-another principled opponents of Peyevsky, as during the time the first vote There were no distrust on April 3, were absent in the hall when discussing this issue.

The pro -Western opposition promises that won’t To support the vesicles of the Zhelyazkov government’s distrust of the convergent report, because it is interested in the entry of Bulgaria to the Eurozone.

Therefore, the vote failed, but the issue of stability of the government coalition became relevant again, as the government of Peyevsky saved the government.

Thanks to the APS, the power coalition had exactly 121 votes in parliament. Formally, after its release from the arrangements, there was a lack of votes, but as you can see – this vacuum was quickly filled with Peyevsky’s party, and now even a situational majority of 131 votes emerged.

Instead, there are only 109 deputies in the opposition.

In other words, the government’s support in parliament has increased, but ideological differences among those who support the government are explosive.

While Peyevsky and the coalition members believe that the government is acting in their interests, they will guarantee the officials immunity and during new votes for a vote of distrust, but of course, Peyevsky will seek to receive a reward for their assistance or at least impunity in the embodiment of their interests.

Expremier Nikolai Denkov already called The current policy of the Minister of Internal Affairs, Daniel Mitov, serves as a « umbrella » for smugglers.

In addition, Peyevsky no longer hides his good relations with the leader of the party of the coat of arms of Boyko Borisov, they together use political influence to pressure the Constitutional Court.

After the departure of the APS party from the government of the majority, the government is hostage to Peyevsky.

And accordingly, it either has to put up with his wishes and bumps, or lose the majority, and the country can again immerse themselves in a swirl of early elections.

Peyevsky himself understands the situation and, it is possible, already uses it.

An alarming bell in this regard was a recent strange situation With the robbery of the House of the APS leader Ahmed reprimand, one of Peyevsky’s main opponents. The robbery was the reason for the further raid of the police, which found the AK-47 and eight other firearms units on the territory of the reprimand.

The party considers it pressure and even an attempt to arrest the reprimand.

First – euro area and then – resignation

In such circumstances, the issue of the collapse of the Zhelyazkov government is already resolved.

Among the key dates, when this may happen, will be exactly June 4, when a convergent report is published and it is known if Bulgaria will be able to join the euro area.

Another important date is January 1, 2026. On this date, subject to the existence of the Government of Zhelyazkov and successful entry into the euro area, the parties of the government coalition will have the question: « Why are we continuing to be here? »

The key factor in the collapse of the coalition will be the one who now preserved the government from collapse – Delyan Peevsky. However, the Cabinet of Ministers may also be influenced by the Russian War against Ukraine, as the Coalition is a pro -Russian BSP party, which has become less active in its anti -Ukrainian rhetoric, but in the conditions of government doom, it can again take up the old one.

An unreliable player is the Party of Glory Trifonov ITN, who is known for his / her readiness to turn on any question, at any time and for any reason.

Not the only player to save the current government is the Gerb SDS party.

Currently, they control the majority of ministries that have a significant impact in parliament, so they lose the most. Moreover, the presidential election will take place in 2026, and the current political schedule would be a good springboard for Boyko Borisov to hold a presidential chair or plant one of his associates.

However, even this situation remains neutral and positive for Ukraine.

During his reign, Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev demonstrated his commitment to Ukraine and a negative attitude towards Russia.

It is significant that a positive assessment in the Prime Minister’s behavior on foreign policy noted Even Cyril Petkov, the head of the largest opposition party PP-DB, who unambiguously supports Ukraine.

But now there is uncertainty about voting on Ukraine in parliament.

Also since December 2024 It remains In the suspended state, the security agreement between Bulgaria and Ukraine, which was refused to sign the then Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev’s duties, because he did not receive permission to sign an agreement from Parliament (in particular, from the Party of Germba-SDS and Boyko Borisov), and this issue was decided to postpone.

But under the current conditions of the trick of the government, this agreement may be « not on time. »

* * * * * *

The situation of the political crisis includes not only Bulgaria, but the whole region.

The fateful presidential elections in Romania and parliamentary in Moldova, the polarization of society in Slovakia and Poland can soon turn the whole region of Central and Eastern Europe into a belt of instability.

And the Bulgarian scenario of a permanent crisis can be dominant.

And of course, neither the European Union nor Ukraine will benefit from this.

Authors:

Serhiy Gerasimchuk, Deputy Executive Director of the Ukrainian Prism of Foreign Policy,

Vladimir-Nazarius Havish, expert of the Foreign Policy Council « Ukrainian Prism »