Igor Eidman: There was no and no threat to Russia from Ukraine’s NATO membership

In a telephone interview with Diary, Aidman commented on the reflection of Washington’s new foreign policy course on the Kremlin – and the prospects for the Vladimir Putin regime.

– This is the way, strange these words of Peskov, who rarely tells the truth, and in this case it does not speak the whole truth. But his words have to do with reality.

The over -the -law of Russian rule, not just with Putin, but from Soviet times, is how to destroy the Euro -Atlantic unity, how to destroy the union between Western Europe and the United States. Soviet authorities have been trying to achieve it for decades. Putin’s Russia has also been trying to achieve it in recent years. And now, suddenly, help has arrived from a completely unexpected direction – from the Americans themselves.

President Trump, his deputy JD. Vance and the others of their surroundings, such as Ilon Musk (Officially, he is simply a « special civil servant » – note.), for the first three weeks, actually to destroy what was created for decades after World War II. The unity between the US and Europe – even if it is not yet completely destroyed, it suffered enormous damage.

And this is undoubtedly in the interest of Putin’s Russia. The Kremlin’s innermost dream comes true.

However, how deep is the transatlantic break, is this process reversible?

– I think the process is reversible. Another question is how far it will go and how quickly it can be turned over. But I think they can be returned to their old channel.

I hope Trump will not remain in power after that. Because it does not represent all of America all over, it is not all American public opinion behind it. He is voted on « The Forces of the Past »; His supporters are in the « American Waste, » the deep province – people with a look at the dying social and religious institutions, extremely conservative. And who dream of reviving the dying economic industries, ie. The material production that Trump promises to revive them.

But in my opinion this is absolutely impossible. The president will not be able to turn the world trends. So this process will not stay long. But we still cannot judge what consequences it will bring in the near future.

Trump and Putin were already talking on the phone about Ukraine. After these conversations, the impression seemed to be that Ukrainian desire for NATO membership was indeed one of the reasons for the war and a significant reason for Moscow’s concern. However, what is behind this « red line »?

– Let me first emphasize that there was no and there was no practical threat to Russia if Ukraine joined NATO. This threat is invented, mythical.

If Moscow was afraid of Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Pact and the war began to prevent it – as some Trumpers are lying now – then why does it annex Ukrainian territories? Moreover, territories for which Russians have never claimed, such as attachment and Kherson regions. Even if there were any conversations about Donbass, it was not at all about these areas. That is, this is a predatory, imperial, aggressive war of Russia against Ukraine. And she has nothing to do with NATO. Bonding it with Ukrainian membership is simply speculation.

Another issue is that Putin likes to talk and focus on this – using the fact that many in the West do not like NATO. The Russians skillfully speculate on these anti -national sentiment among certain environments.

And how to do Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski – Should he succumb to the pressure from Washington and withdraw from office, in the name of peace and the end of the war?

– It is obvious to me that if Zelenski withdraw from the presidential post, no end to the war and no peace will come. And rather, the opposite: we will see escalation.

Putin has even said it in a straightforward text, for example in the ultimatum to NATO since December 2021, just two months before the invasion: for Russia it is at least to restore the sphere of Soviet influence. To expel NATO, to banish European structures from Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria. In this ultimatum, Moscow insists that NATO will return to its boundaries since 1997.

And, believe me, this is not a maximum program, this is a minimum program. I am afraid that they will not be satisfied with this; They will not stop there. Therefore, if Ukraine falls, we will not see the end of the war, only its expansion.

In this war, Ukrainians show phenomenal endurance. Is it due to any national conditionality? What is the main difference between the Ukrainian national character and the Russian?

– You know, the « national character » is significantly « reflected in nothing », a kind of empty imitation (« simulacrum » if we use the term from postmodern philosophy). Just an idea.

There is, of course, a complex of some national traditions that has been passed down over the generations, but it is something different. There is a different nature in different public strata and groups. However, in Russia this differentiation is very strong. I’m not even talking about the fact that many nationalities live in the Russian Federation (Over 190 ethnic groups, according to the 2021 census. – ed.), each with its traditions and culture. Even among the Russians themselves, within the community, there are quite a lot of cultural differences: between Siberia and the European part or between the North and the South, etc.

By the way, the fortress law in Ukraine is finally introduced only to Catherine II (In 1783 – ed.). There are different intermediate moments – but the serfdom is fully enters into force, on the whole Ukrainian territory, only with the Russian Empress. The loss of freedom, the suppression of Ukrainian culture comes with the Russian kings, under the influence of Moscow expansion.

How much more will Putin’s regimen?

– This question is very complicated to answer, because in history it is of great importance. Remember, for example, June 2023, during the rebellion of Evgeny Prigozhin – when Putin’s regime was in the hair of death.

By the way, Putin recently said he was bored when everything goes well; that some movement was needed, « seconds to whist like bullets by the temples« *. I think he meant the Pucha of Prigogin when the bullets actually shone very close. Ah, and the regime would have fallen – if Prigogin had not returned his soldiers from the road to Moscow at the last moment. But here, this threat did not happen.

Therefore, it is difficult to say whether such a threat will be realized in the next few years. We cannot make a short -term forecast whether the regime will fall in the near future.

It is similar to the TRPM experiment in America – an attempt to go back time, to stop progress and social development, to end world trends. The world should return to the archaicism of the nineteenth century, to revive imperialism in the style of that century, to return the clerical, religious influence in education, in culture, in society, etc.

All this is an attempt at a conservative revolution – but as we know, all conservative revolutions have failed; The progress still did not stop.

Is it worth it to hope at all for a Russian rebellion – be it and « meaningless and merciless », according to the famous phrase from Pushkin’s « Captain Daughter »?

– There is no chance of any « Russian rebellion » at the moment. Therefore, it is not worth the hopes of it. There is only one reason why the regime can collapse – and it is a schism inside the elite, among the head. And subsequent palace coup, in the style of the conspiracy against Paul I (The Russian emperor was overthrown and killed, with the consent of his son and heir to Alexander, in March 1801 – ed.) or the removal of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in October 1964.

The more his war problems deepen, the more the situation of the Russian troops there is worse – and the Ukrainians respectively resist – the more the likelihood of such a development increases. The head may demolish Putin if he realizes that his stay in power, as well as his attempts to realize his confused imperialist ideas, only lead to even greater problems for the lead. Problems that can become destructive. And only then can they decide to remove it.

In Russia, of course, this does not go without babies, but it will eventually end this insane Russian expansion.

Igor Eidman is the author of the books « Breakthrough in the Future. The Sociology of the Internet Revolution » (Moscow, 2007), « The New National Idea of ​​Putin » (Moscow, 2014) and « The Putin System. Where does the new Russian Reich go? » (published in German in Munich in 2016).