If the Russian army leaves from Ukraine now, it will face NATO very soon, according to a report
In March, Ian Bond, director of the European Reform Center – one of the best non -governmental British research centers, told the BBC that even if a long -term ceasefire in Ukraine would be agreed, it would not stop Vladimir Putin from trying to try something else. Danish and Dutch military intelligence reports, in the meantime, have indicated that Russia’s willingness is shortened to a major provocation against NATO.
This week, the Swedish International Institute for Strategic Research (IIS) presented its scenario with another component – the withdrawal of the United States from NATO engagements in Europe below the threshold of nuclear confrontation. The result is that despite the losses in Ukraine at the current pace of recovery of Russian weapons and numerical composition, if in the middle of 2025 the battles there stopped, Moscow would be able to resist the alliance in 2027 in a scale that could afford incidents with sufficient confidence that NATO will not answer.
- « No one who thinks he is with all of them does not want to think that a European war is again around the corner. But the reality is that more and more European intelligence agencies officials tell us it will happen in three, five or ten years, what they say is that the idea is not yet. Ian Bond.
- In a speech to the US Senate in March, Gen. Christopher Cavali, commander of the US forces in Europe and the highest-ranking NATO commander, said: « The Russian military is recovering and growing at a faster rate than most analysts expected. In fact, the Russian army … today it is bigger than it was at the beginning of the war. »
The Russian economy is currently on military rails, approximately 40% of the federal budget is spent on defense and internal security, and an increasing part of the economy is turning to the production of war materials.
According to IIS, as of 2027, Russia’s ground forces could restore their active reserves from weapons to the level of February 2022 by a combination of the renovation and production of new systems. Air Force and Navy are not largely affected by the war.
Russia has engaged 97% of its army with Ukraine, but it only achieves so much, according to London
If Americans also decide in the middle of this year that the conflict in Ukraine is sufficiently mastered and frozen and start withdrawing pessonal, weapons and storage available, European allies will face a huge challenge. The compensation of the American capacity will require – in a common 25 -year survey cycle, order, production, introduction of a new new and removal of an old – an additional amount of 1 trillion. dollars.
In addition to being allies who will not want to increase their defense costs significantly, there are restrictions on both the capacity and capabilities of the continent’s arms industry. Which means you will need to quickly look for stocks abroad.
Often, questions can be heard on the type of « Is Russia really threatening NATO with an attack and which alliance country? », Which implies a large -scale conflict. In fact, a major operation would stretch on a wide front Russian units (ie, the forces behind them would be « thinner » dangerous) and most likely this is not the main threat.
Ed Arnold, a senior research associate of European Security at the Royal Institute of United Forces, said that such a large -scale operation would scatter too little forces Russia has. That is why it is a focused provocation with a limited contingent and affecting a relatively small NATO territory in order to start to hesitate the Member States whether it is worth activating all the power of the Allies under Article 5 of the Washington Dotovor « only for that ».
| « It would be very difficult for Russia to launch a broader-scale attack on numerous goals in the NATO North and Eastern Flangs, » said Ed Arnold, a senior research associate at the British Rusi Institute. « However, there is a significant likelihood of a smaller, more targeted operation organized by Russia against NATO, which is intended to defeat NATO politically. » |
This moment is logical to be chosen when Americans have withdrawn a significant part of their present probably 128,000 power in Europe and restricted their presence in key domains, IIS authors write. A « window » of vulnerability to NATO will open and because all the defensive architecture has been built around and a constantly trained for decades, mostly by the standards of the US Army, and Europeans will not yet have built their alternative.
Russia redeveloped old tanks after losing 3000 in Ukraine
What different military say about the estimated period in which Moscow would restore its army to the state it was in February 2022.
- Last year, the Chief of Defense of the United Kingdom Adm. Tony Radakin calculated Putin, it would take him five years plus five years to correct the weaknesses the war revealed. «
- The Estonian Intelligence Service agreed to the ten-year schedule, stating that « within the next decade, NATO would face a large-scale Soviet-type army, which, although technologically more abandoned than allies in the alliance, poses a significant threat due to its size, its fire power and its reserve. »
- The Chief of Defense of Norway Gen. Airik Christoffense said the Allies had « a window for two to three years to prepare before Russia restores its capacity to carry out a conventional attack. »
- In early 2025, the Danish military intelligence estimated that within six months after the end of the war, Russia could wage a local war in a neighboring country, be ready for a regional war in the Baltic Sea region, and after about five years, a large -scale war in Europe could begin.
Iiss states that they are more likely to accept the evaluation of the Danes.
According to the report, the Russians’ priority will be to restore their ground forces, where 1400 main combat tanks were lost in 2024 only (a total of over 4000 from February 2022), and the many outdated platforms sent to the front would probably be discarded when the conflict conflict
ended or returned to stock. But because of the return to Soviet time doctrines, it is betting on the table, not so much on quality as an advantage.
This will help all places for the retrofit and modernization of armored equipment that will be re -established for new production. Only the impact parts of the brigades consolidated in divisions are enough to be modernly equipped. Complete rearmament seems to be achievable – while maintaining the current pace – earlier by 2030-2035.
But to create a threat to the Baltic Republics with the advantage of the first to begin action, the current capacity of the defense enterprises of Russia must – and according to the report – it can be brought to the required readiness by 2027. About 3,000 main combat tanks, 11 thousand armies (for infantry, intelligence and intelligence).
If the script studied by IIS is triggered this summer, the withdrawal of Americans will be a process that has been going on, but Europeans in the meantime will have to find substitutes for hundreds of billions of euros – especially in the Air Force and Navy.
The authors’ estimate is that you will need to quickly find about 400 EUROFIGHTER aircraft; F-15; F-16; F-35; Gripen and Rafale, which would cost between $ 48 and $ 64 billion (18.58% of all estimated change). Only 20 destroyers will need to be replaced (such as DDG-51; Horizon; KDD-III; Maya; LC-Fregatten; Type 45), but they cost 2-2.5 billion dollars one and the total is within 40-50 billion euros (14.52% share).
The following are a few finely written pages with tables for the replacement needs and the careful costs of them.
The text states that they deliberately set aside the topic of NATO’s nuclear weapons in Europe.
But without explanation, the topic of drones, radio -electronic struggle and all the innovations that happen on the front in Ukraine with such a pace are absent where there are places where the war is not like the beginning of 2022. The former commander gene. Valery has been stunning in several publications in recent months, insists that Europe in this sense is not ready for the 21st Century War and only the Ukrainian army possesses and develops in a significant volume of such skills against the Russians.
Finally, it should be recalled that in the case of reports such as those of IISS, experts warn that they talk a lot about the number of weapons and the army, the expenses and a share of GDP, but in reality the wars are significantly won by the military spirit of the soldiers and the resilience of societies.
