how to affect loans to individuals
One decrease in the key rate to restore consumer lending is not enough, according to banks. In anticipation of reducing the Bank of Russia rate by 1 percentage point to 20%, the market showed disappointing dynamics. In May, the growth of retail lending slowed down, and the volume of issuing cash loans decreased. To break the trend, mitigation of the macroprudent policy of the Central Bank is necessary, bankers believe.
According to the Frank RG analytical agency, in May, the volume of retail loans (cash loans, mortgages, car loans, POS loans) amounted to 660.5 billion rubles, which is 55.1% lower than in May 2024. The total issuing loans to individuals showed an increase of 0.54% to April, however, the issuance of cash loans decreased by 2.7%, to 237.7 billion rubles. The average volume of the issued loan per month decreased to 153.3 thousand rubles. (minus 9.5% of April 2025).
On June 6, 2025, the Bank of Russia, after almost three years of raising or preserving the key rate, reduced it by 1 p., To 20% per annum (see Kommersant on June 7). However, to activate credit growth, a more important factor is the expectation of its further decrease, said Mikhail Polukhin, director of the group of ratings of financial institutions of ARRO. “Some revival of lending in all retail segments in the medium term can be expected not because the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 1 p., But because it is expected to begin to reduce it,” said Yuri Belikov, managing director of the expert RA rating agency. According to him, banks adjust their credit policy not to separate decisions of the regulator at the rate, but for its cycle.
According to the review of the NRA about the meeting of the Central Bank on June 6, the average level of rates of 24-30%is expected in the lending segment (excluding support measures) of non -financial organizations. The maximum percentage rates on the population deposits to 90 days can begin to decline to 16-19%, they note there.
At the same time, “tightening the regulation of the Bank of Russia has a more significant impact on issuing than the level of bets,” said Konstantin Borodulin, managing director of the ratings of the financial institutions of the rating service. Thus, “in the absence of changes in the hard macroprudencial regulation of a noticeable restoration of this segment, you should not expect,” Mikhail Polukhin points out.
The need to combine the two factors to restore the segment pay attention to banks. The VTB noted that a decrease in a key rate of up to 20% will not have a significant impact on sales volume in the near future: although loan rates will become a little more accessible, a serious turning of the trend is possible only if the key rate is reduced and macro -regulation weakening. The Chief Analyst of the Socialist Republic of Council of Ministers Anna Zemlyanova notes that the monetary conditions remain strict, and the current macroprudent regulation still restrains the growth of the loan. “Cash loan segment will gradually recover as the Central Bank’s policy is softened,” she said.
According to the forecasts of Yuri Belikova, « the issuance of cash loans in the second half of 2025 will almost certainly be significantly more than in the first. » At the same time, according to the director of the group of ratings of the financial institutions of the NKR agency Yegor Lopatin, some revival can occur in the summer, but it « will be more than a seasonal factor, and for a year we will see the preservation of the decline. » According to the results of 2025, VTB also predict a decrease in lending in all segments.
Yuri Belikov emphasizes that the growth rate, as in 2023–2024, we will not see for a very long time. However, he believes that they should not strive for such a pace, because « they were close to abnormal and led the segment to overheating. »
