How the conflict of Iran and Israel affects Russia

If you leave aside humanitarian considerations and start reasoning extremely cynically, it could be assumed that the new round of the Israeli-Iranian confrontation is even beneficial to Russia to some extent.

Firstlyobviously, any escalation in the Middle East region automatically leads to an increase in world prices for hydrocarbons, including Russian ones.

The larger the fighting is – and they can even include the blockade of Tehran of the Strait of the Ormuzian Strait – the higher the global demand for Russian oil and gas.

Secondlyany Middle Eastern exacerbation distracts the attention of opponents of Moscow from the Ukrainian topic, changes the priorities of Western military assistance programs.

It is easy to predict the strengthening of disagreements on the Middle Eastern agenda between the United States and its European allies, which again meets the interests of Russia.

ThirdGiven our allied relations with Tehran, theoretically, Russia could act as an impartial intermediary between the conflicting parties, promoting, if not a resolution, then at least the de -escalation of the crisis. Thus, Moscow would strengthen its influence in the region after the fall of the Syrian regime Bashar al -Assad.

However, the ongoing escalation is associated with serious risks and potential costs for Moscow.

The fact remains: Russia could not prevent A massive blow Israel on the state with which she signed an agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership with a five months ago. Moscow is clearly not ready, not limited to political statements with condemnation of Israeli actions, to provide Iran also military assistance.

In addition, escalation in the Middle East is fraught with additional difficulties in dialogue with the United States. While Vladimir Putin condemned the Israeli action, Donald Trump supported her, although he did not confirm Washington’s involvement in its holding.

It is hoped that the discrepancies in the assessments of Israeli’s actions will not provoke an acute crisis in Russian-American relations, given that Putin and Trump have quite different topics for discussion.

Risks for Moscow in the long run can only increase if you imagine that the main goal of Israel is not to suspend the Iranian nuclear program and not even in a change in the regional behavior of Iran, but in the change of political regime in the country. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated this goal in his appeal to the Iranian people on June 14. Such a prospect is fraught with a new threat to the Kremlin, since the change in the political orientation of the current Iranian government, if it occurs once, can make Tehran less supportive towards Moscow.

Fortunately for Iran’s international partners, the ambitious goal of Israel is still unattainable.

If the Iranian regime is destined to fall, then only as a result of deepening the contradictions and conflicts within the ruling elite and society. However, the margin of strength of the institutions of the Islamic Republic remains very significant. Moreover, the actions of Israel at the current stage will only contribute to the consolidation of power and society.