How ps and be ‘fed’

When a few years ago I was interviewing André Ventura and he told me he wanted to be a prime minister and that he would quickly reach 20%, before I arrived at St. Benedict, I asked him if I was drinking the same wine as me, because I had some hallucinogenic effect. Three or four years later, the arrival becomes, everything indicates, the second political formation in number of deputies, and so I have devalued your speech. At this moment, without the four deputies still ascended from Europe and the rest of the world, the arrival and the PS have 58 deputies, and in 2024, André Ventura’s party got two deputies, while the PS was one.

The electoral night implied the fall of Pedro Nuno Santos from the PS leadership, a party that suffered one of the greatest defeats in his history, having gone from 1,759,998 votes to 1,394,491. In Lisbon alone, the socialists saw more than 64,000 voters, while in Porto the fall was even more dizzying: less 74,000 votes. Of the 77 deputies of 2024, the PS should go to 59, if it can elect a deputy in Europe or the rest of the world. At the time of the farewell, Pedro Nuno Santos explained that he will never endure an AD government that violates its principles and therefore will give the place to another. Already yesterday, when commented the elections in TVI/CNN, Sérgio Sousa Pinto was not sweet to the leader of the PS. «The future of the PS is concerned. Either the PS understands that it has to end this direction, or this direction ends the party. It is as simple as this, ”said the former leader of socialist youth, before learning the resignation of Pedro Nuno Santos.

AD, who was the winner of the night, was far from the absolute majority, even with the deputies of the liberal initiative – at most they should reach 98. AD has 89 deputies and IL 9, increased one. Obviously, the President of the Republic should give possession to a government led by Luís Montenegro, who, it seems, should have ministers of the liberal initiative. But these are stories of another rosary.

Looking at the half-filled bottle, the arrival was the big winner of the night, went from 50 to 58 deputies, and could reach 60, then becoming the second force of the Hemiciclo. In addition to AD, who won the elections, which was therefore inevitably one of the winners, also the free of the winners of the night, increased the number of deputies from four to six, having achieved another 50,000 votes.

Let’s talk now about numbers: AD, arrives and Il got 395,628 more votes than in 2024. Already on the left, the losses were even greater. The PS lost 365,507 votes, the BE went from 274,029 to 119. 211 (four deputies, only Mariana Mortágua and 154,818 votes). The CDU lost a deputy, now has three, and saw flying 21,382 votes. If we join the PAN, which went from 118,579 to 80,850 (37,729 votes), but kept deputy Inês Sousa Real. Together they lost 579,436 voters.

As for the Left Block, who saw many of the more than 150,000 lost votes go to the free line, failed throughout the line, namely with the return of the ‘dinosauros’ Francisco Loução, by Braga, Luís Fazenda by Aveiro and Fernando Rosa in Leiria. Loução ‘managed’ losing more than 11,000 votes, farm saw the party pass from 17,110 votes to 7,015. Fernando Rosas, in his return to the electoral lines, saw the Be from 11,736 votes to 5,099. It cannot be said that they were weight reinforcements…

The liberal initiative is that it kept almost everything in the same: of the 312,064 votes in 2024 reached 330,149 votes, managing to elect another deputy.

In the southern kingdom

Looking at the numbers, you will easily realize that it is the left that has fed the arrival. If a few years ago it was the PCP electorate who transferred his vote to André Ventura’s party, now it is the PS and even the BE who see their voters say arrives. Let’s go to some undeniable facts, and start from the south. In the district of Faro, which arrives already won in 2024, the party of Ventura went from 64,228 votes to 78,168 (over 13,940), managing to elect another deputy – got four. The AD that went from third political force to Monday, got 6,468 votes. And the PS? Lost 12,830. And what happened to the be? Had had 13,579 votes in 2024, now descended to 5,724 (minus 7,855)

Let us pass Beja, land where the PS has not lost for many years. Of the 24,408 votes from 2024, he went to 19,536 (4,872 less), becoming the second party force. Already the arrival increased from 16,595 to 20,447 (plus 3,852). AD continued third, but had another 2,517 votes. And the be? Of 3,393 was 1,365 (minus 2028).

Let us continue in Alentejo, now in Évora where the PS was able to maintain first place, however, from 29,309 votes to 23,616 (less 5,693). And who won these votes? The arrival that from 17,846 reached 21,080 (plus 3,234). AD, who exchanged places with arrival, still had 1021 votes than in 2024. And the be? It went from 3,816 to 1,487 (less 2329).

Let us now pass to Portalegre, another once socialist bastion. If the PS had naturally won in 2024 with 20,658 votes, it was now 16,125 (4,533 minus). The arrival, which won the district, rose from 14,915 to 17,220 (plus 2,305). The AD, which maintained third place, ‘drew’ also 1326 votes to the PS – from 14,132 to 15,458. And the be? Of 1,894 reached 733 (less 1161 votes).

But let’s go to the most surprising victory of the arrival, which was in Setúbal. Once one of the Communist Baskets, the Choco Frito district, saw the arrival at 129,569 votes, against the 102,077 of 2024 (plus 27,492 votes). The PS that was left without first place, lost 34,487 votes. AD was in the last, place of Podia, but had 16,884 votes. And the be? From 30,161 votes descended to 13,068 (less 17,093). Here the free man was able to elect a deputy. The others were three in Lisbon and two in Porto.

It is not therefore necessary to be a master of voting transfers to realize that it comes – and AD – mainly feeds on the left. Suffice it to see that in Alentejo AD was never popular, and after the fall of the Communist Party, the PS took over the Alentejo districts. Now, Évora has resisted, everything else has been swept through the arrival.

To further clock the transfer of votes from PS to arrival, let’s look at the case of Lisbon: the PS had won in 2024, with 365,838 and now went to second, with 301,492. Lost 64,346 votes. The arrival remained in third place, but won 41,078 votes-surprising is the victory of André Ventura’s party in Sintra… here you also need not be magical to realize that the areas that have the most Gypsies vote mostly on arrival… A ad that pushed the PS from the leadership, got another 5,808 votes. And the be? From 65,438 votes went to 29,914 (less 35,524).

Let’s talk about Porto. AD reinforced its vote, another 36,510 votes, the arrival kept third place, 55,896 votes, while the PS lost 74,291! And the be? Of 51,909 was at 22,192 votes (minus 29,717). In Braga the story was not much different: AD had 13,527 votes, the PS kept the second, but less 31,570. The arrival grew 26,091. And the be? From 21,388 fell to 10,029 (less 11,359).

The surprise of the wood

In this first summary of the electoral night, it should be said that in Madeira together for the people (JPP) managed to elect his first deputy to the Assembly of the Republic. AD got another 4,455 votes, the arrival that exceeded the PS, had 2,742 votes, while the PS lost 11,019 voters. But in Madeira there is a curious phenomenon, as the Madeirans look at the regional elections, to which the president of the local government, differently from the legislature. In the Regional, of March 23, who reappointed Miguel Albuquerque in the lead of the island, the PSD alone got 62,085 votes. Now, as AD, they have only reached 57,447, although this number is much more generous than it achieved in the last legislatures of 2024. On March 23, the second most voted party was Together for the People (JPP) who convinced more than 30,000 Madeiras to vote for their lists. The PS had been third with 22,355, while the arrival had not gone beyond fourth place with 7,821 votes. Less than two months later, the arrival can reach 29,038 votes and stay with second place. The PS reached the third and JPP fourth place, but, despite everything, allows it to elect a deputy.

If it arrives surprised in many districts, there is one that is still far from being able to convince Bragança’s people – it is the only district where arrives can not elect any deputy, although the distance to the PS is decreasing.

Finally, it should be said that yesterday 5,965,322 people voted in a universe of 9,265,493 subscribers, when in 2024 they had gone to the polls plus 174,947 voters. And there were only 5,986 names in the electoral notebooks.