How much would it cost to supply energy independent of Russia?

• The European Commission plans to eliminate Russian energy dependence until 2027

• Hungary’s energy management relies heavily on Russian natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel

• How could the Russian raw material be replaced and the effect of detachment on overhead protection?

The European Commission adopted a plan this week on which Member States should completely divorce from Russian energy carriers by the end of 2027that is, gas, petroleum and nuclear heating elements. (In the case of the latter, this would be a softer rule, but they would make rules that would make it difficult or become too expensive.) Long -term gas transport contracts for Hungary’s territory Based on the end of 2027, gas could still be brought into the Union. When the draft was presented, the Energy Commissioner also talked about the ban on oil transport at the end of 2027, while so far We have been exempted from the EU The Russian piped gas and oil imports, as our energy supply is largely based on this. According to MOL yet do not have the conditionsthat Hungary and Slovakia completely give up Russian crude oil. The Company sees that, in the absence of the implemented EU plans would lead to price increases, shortages and economic difficulties.

According to Viktor Orban measures proposed by the European Commission are at risk of state overhead. If the price of the gas is raised – and the detachment involves it – then Hungary has to pay HUF 800 billion more for the energy purchased from abroad. This is the amount that they support families today to get gas and electricity as it is currently. If EU will realize, families will pay twice as much for energy as before the prime minister said.

We are a transit country in terms of gas

Will it really be that big if there is no more gas from Russia? Attila Holoda is an energy expert according to Not at all because the Hungarian natural gas transport system is part of European natural gas infrastructure, so practically We can buy natural gas from anywhere, and natural gas in Russia is no cheaper than these.

– Very serious natural gas trade in Hungary. Incoming natural gas is carried by many merchants to Slovakia, Ukraine and elsewhere, as it is a completely liberalized activity, he said. Last year, the country used about 8.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas while crossing its area of ​​16-17 billion cubic meters, which is about double.

If we queue up the accession points, the Romanians sell gases of Romanian origin, not Russian, but in significant quantities of Romanian origin. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Croats can come from America through Australia to Qatar. As Austria will not receive Russian gas directly in the fraternity pipeline from January 1st, natural gas from Germany and France can also come.

It is also very often said that gas can also come from Central Asia, ie Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It also seems that these countries are now a little awakened and try to take advantage of the possibility that the Russians are not or not to distribute in quantities.

The point is that As the Hungarian natural gas transport system is part of European natural gas infrastructure, we can buy natural gas from anywhere.

Neither Hungary nor Slovakia are threatened by not being able to supply themselves without Russian gas, says Attila Holoda.

According to the expert, the fact that the European Commission and his energy insurance have proposed a ban on Russian energy by 2027 does not mean that this will happen. In the meantime, many things can change, even the war can end. Of course, this would not mean that the EU would immediately open the pipes and storage to Russian raw materials, as Russia always liked to take advantage of the energy weapon in its hands.

For many domestic actors, Russian gas is important for economic interest

According to Attila Holoda, in addition to physical and political aspects Money also plays a major role in sticking to gas from Russia.

– We don’t see what the long -term gas contract looks like, what various mediation companies include between MVM and Gazprom Not too many added values ​​get serious revenue after traffic. Last year, 7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas came from Russia. For this amount, twenty cents per cubic meter is large enough. In fact, I think these economic interests are protected by security and political arguments with Russian natural gas. Not only in our country, in Slovakia this is the same.

Two wires are better than one

« In the case of crude oil, no one can be happy if one of the current two delivery routes is discontinued, » the expert added, « because then we will be more vulnerable, and no matter how disturbed, a technical problem can pose a greater risk in the care. Beyond whether we can work on non -Uralic oil -obviously we need to add technological modifications, but yes -two supply routes are always better than one.

No one wants to give up on this benefit

– It is also important to know, however, that much of the oil coming to Hungary comes from Russia because MOL is the only processor in the region that is more favorable for Russian oil for business reasons, as it gets at a much better price. THE The World Market Price of Brent Petroleum has fallen to $ 62-63 in recent times, but Russian oil ranges from $ 49-47 in the unofficial market, which is $ 10-12 per barrel. Nobody is reluctant to give up on that. Neither Mol nor the Hungarian state, which draws part of the difference as an extra profit tax.

The replacement of nuclear fuel has been resolved

– When the Hungarian state signed in 2014 in Paks II. a contract was also complained of in the European Union why only the Russian heating element was considered. At that time, the explanation was that the cassette -type heating element, which fits in with the technology, was only manufactured in Russia.

Since then, the US Westinghouse and French Areva have been producing it, and there are already Russian nuclear power plants in several places, such as the Czech Republic, which are not equipped with fuel of Russian origin. It is no coincidence that our Foreign Minister also discussed the involvement of America in the domestic nuclear electricity production.

It is undeniable that the Russians sell a lot and cheaply enriched uranium, as they are less interested in environmental and other regulations, but Urán is elsewhere. The French also provide dozens of their own power plants, so the replacement of this can be relatively easy for us.

Overhead protection costs the same as if the gas comes from elsewhere

According to Attila Holoda, it is not realistic that if we will not buy natural gas from Russia, it will cost enough to endure full overhead.

– The reduced price is the result of a political decision, as we see the state intervene in other areas. The overhead headquarters is filled with extra income coated from extra profit taxes. Which is very important from this point of view that Say anyone anything, Russian gas is not cheap. Russians pricing follows the international stock exchange, they sell us for the same amount as others. We only paid less for it during the Soviet period. As a result It doesn’t matter where the gas comes frompolitical decision how much the population pays for it. It costs the same amount of regulation to maintain the gas in Russia as if we were to get it elsewhere, according to Attila Holoda.