How many votes does a deputy cost

With a week of campaign ahead, the scripts of Luís Montenegro, Pedro Nuno Santos and André Ventura pay attention to the bet on districts where, with little more votes than they had in 2024, they can simultaneously win a deputy and steal deputies to the main opponents.

What happens in almost the entire national territory is that to conquer another deputy, the three largest parties cause losses with each other.

AD can steal deputies to the Socialist Party in seven districts and, in other six the dispute is with the arrival.

Already the PS if you want to win another deputy in seven districts, it has to cause casualties to AD. But the socialists’s dispute is slightly greater with André Ventura’s arrival. To win a mandate in eight districts you have to be able to win them up.

If André Ventura wants to increase his bench of 50 deputies, he has to conquer them to AD in nine districts. In other eight districts of the continent, another deputy to arrive, means less one deputy for the PS.
The accounts for this exercise were made by Professor João Telhada, from the New University, who has long studied the electoral system.