How likely is a Turkey -Israel war?

« Could the war of statements between Israel and Turkey escalate in a real war? »

This is the question raised by Deutsche Welle, reflecting the concern in several European staff and the West as a whole of the possibility of another armed conflict in the long -awaited area – this time, in fact, between two opponents with wide -ranging,

« Israel and Turkey turn into deadly enemies in Syria, » Economist estimates in his own assessment of the situation that tends to form.

To note, at the same time, that « the two most powerful forces in the Middle East apply their regional ambitions » to the territory of the particular – and de facto fragmented – country.

The above comments were not of course made of insignificant cause.

On the contrary, they came after the recent bombings carried out by Israel on the territory of Syria, with the aim of military bases of the overthrown Assad regime – including two airports – which could, under conditions, host Turkish forces.

In order to prevent such a move, which would further strengthen Ankara’s close relations with the new rulers of Damascus and consolidate Turkey’s (anyway) influence in Syria.

For a long time, moreover, the plans of both sides have been known to conclude a defensive deal, a matter discussed during the visit to Ankara of the transitional president of Syria (and former jihadist leader), Ahmet al-Sara.

And this is something that for Israel seems to be a « red line ».

« Israel has made it quite clear that any change in the regime concerning the presence of foreign forces in Syria – in particular Turkey’s military bases in the Palmyra region – is a red line and will be considered a violation of the rules, » a Reuters source told Reuters.

As for Turkey, it has proven in many cases that it has more confidence in its potential and does not hesitate to set the bar high. This is an element that was also reflected in what her foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said, after the Israeli attacks: « We will not sit with arms crossed. »

Conversations after Trump intervention

But are all this to do the two countries – which had been close allies by the end of the 2000s – to raise their weapons against each other?

The truth is that the above analyzes of both Deutsche Welle and Economist, as well as most with similar content, agree that this is extremely difficult, despite the bad level of bilateral relations.

For this reason, during Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the White House, at the beginning of the week, Donald Trump allegedly said to him: « Whatever problem you have with Turkey, I think I can solve it. It is enough to be reasonable – and you have to be reasonable. « 

He, in fact, praised the very good relations he has maintained with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who also seeks to visit Washington in April.

It is no coincidence, then, that a day later, delegations of Turkey and Israel officially began with US blessings, talks on the territory of Azerbaijan, in order to set up a mechanism that will be able to prevent « warm incidents » in Syria.

For the time being, however, the two sides seem to persist in their positions and the hard line, without letting their real intentions be clear – while « counting » their allies.

It is certain that the particularly violent shuffle of the deck that takes place in the Middle East, which reaches the border change (Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen), has opened Aeolus’ bag, releasing forces that can become uncontrollable.

In this background, Turkey and Israel, it would be unlikely that they would not attempt to exploit their power and privileged position in the region, in order to have a clearly more upgraded role in the new order of things – when and when it is created and stabilized.