How does The Hague fill the power vacuum: elections, Romp Kabinet-Schoof II or reform?

Now that PVV leader Geert Wilders has overturned the Cabinet Schoof, politicians in the coalition and opposition have to figure out at lightning speed how they want to continue with the poor cabinet and the battered coalition. The initiative lies with VVD, NSC and BBB, but they have not yet decided how they see the future. And what does the opposition want and can also and can the right -wing cooperation have been broken?

Scenario 1: New elections

The most obvious scenario is that the government is writing new elections, which would probably take place in November. Since 1972 it is customary for a political crisis – and in this case there is certainly talk of – the voter is re -enacted. For BBB and NSC, which are decimated in the polls, this scenario is potentially disastrous.

Moreover, it means that the Cabinet Schoof must go through outgoing, which means that politically sensitive topics can be declared controversial, and therefore no policy can be made. After the elections, formation must be made, and the experience of past formations is that it can take a long time before a new coalition agreement has been concluded.

BBB leader Caroline van der Plas finds it a little attractive option. « If there are new elections, you will get a campaign and a lot of things will come to a halt. »

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz leaves the options open: « It seems logical to me (that there are new elections), but it is also possible that there will be another logical variant. I think taking responsibility is very important and implementing the right policy. »

Better new elections than even longer with this political adventure

It is also striking that she does not explicitly exclude in conversation with Sven Kockelmann on Radio 1 Wilders when new elections follow. « I don’t go into any question about political stuff in the future, » she said.

In the opposition there is mainly enthusiasm for new elections. GroenLinks-PvdA foreman Frans Timmermans-who is in the polls with PVV and VVD-writes on Bluesky: « It’s time for new elections, we are ready. »

Also according to CDA leader Henri Bontenbal, who is doing well in the polls, new elections are the best option. He acknowledges that that results in a period of administrative stagnation. But according to Bontenbal, little has also been reached last cabinet term. « Better new elections than even longer with this political adventure, » he tells the NOS.

Rob Jetten from D66 is doing badly in the polls, but joins Timmermans and Bontenbal: « I think the polls is the most sensible as quickly as possible. »

The opposition parties are very important in the coming period, when there are new elections. Among other things because the spring memorandum and the higher NATO standard still have to be guided by both rooms. Timmermans has indicated that he has no need to help the outgoing cabinet out of the fire, but awaits a proposal regarding the NATO standard.

Option 2: Romp Kabinet-Schoof II

A second option is that the three remaining coalition parties continue with the three of them, in a so -called hull cabinet.

According to special professor Bert van den Braak of the University of Maastricht there is a recent example. « It can be as happened with Balkenende III. » Then D66 stepped out of the coalition and the remaining parties, VVD and CDA, again formed a Balkenende III cabinet within a few days. In that scenario, a Cabinet-Schoof II would be formed, with the support of VVD, NSC and BBB. Other parties can then influence those negotiations.

The advantage of this construction is that the cabinet is not outgoing, and can therefore rule without important files being declared controversial. But, Van den Braak sees, the political reality is still that there is little consensus. « How feasible it is that a trunk cabinet can make all kinds of major decisions, you can question that. »

If Rompkabinet-Schoof II is formed, the ‘new coalition parties’ must quickly fill the ministerial posts that leave the PVV empty to rule.

That could be a task, in particular because important and politically very sensitive ministries such as asylum and migration and public health are left vacant by the PVV. It would probably be difficult for NSC and BBB to find ministers who could fill the posts on their behalf.

Certainly not

In terms of controllability, a hull cabinet sheaf would have a major problem-jointly VVD, NSC and BBB have only 51 seats, to find majorities they should seek a lot of support from other room fractions in a tolerance construction. Whether the PVV is willing to do so can be seen. With other progressive-left groups, there is little support to be gained for the right-wing conservative proposals of this cabinet. Yesilgöz said on Tuesday he wanted to work with Timmermans together. « There is no logic, » she says, to enter into a partnership with links, « because they don’t want that policy at all. »

Not everyone is unwilling. The SGP has already said that it wants to be constructively, and ChristenUnie leader Mirjam Bikker writes: « A trunk cabinet with new majorities can still represent our country. » But with the support of the small Christian parties, there is still no majority in sight.

The hull cabinet is a difficult workable option, but certainly for NSC and BBB it can still be attractive to try, compared to new elections.

Option 3: Reform

A third option is that the existing groups reform in the current composition. Then a completely new coalition could arise. It has not happened since 1972, but it is not impossible. During the last formation, the option of a middle cabinet was never investigated, partly because the second group, GroenLinks-PvdA, was held out by the VVD.

Since Yesilgöz still wants nothing to do with Timmermans, according to her statements on Tuesday, a left-right cooperation is for the time being unlikely.

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