How does Switzerland deal with Trump's revolution?

Karin Keller-Sutter has prepared. During the Christmas holidays she read Donald Trump's biography “The Art of the Deal”.

Recently, the Federal President summarized her findings on the “Infrarouge” program of West Switzerland television: “The Trump system is an announcement system, a shock system. You say something and then see how it develops. » This is difficult: «We are used to making politics within certain framework conditions. If someone suddenly breaks out of this framework, that's brutal. »

And it obviously overwhelms the Federal Council. If you want to know how to deal with Trump's geopolitical revolution, you have to collect the speeches of the government members – and try to get an idea of ​​it.

As of today, at least three strategies can be identified.

1. Navigate between the blocks

Keller-Sutter already spoke of the danger of « getting between the geopolitical blocks » at WEF in Davos. Independent navigating as an internationally networked, open market economy is the federal strategy to date. Of course, it was based on the fact that the big blocks also adhere to multilateral rules. This has been less and less true for a long time. And with Trump's taking office, a return to multilateralism is off the table in the long term.

In order to maintain legal certainty, despite everything as possible, the federal government tries to expand its network of free trade agreements together with the EFTA countries Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein and, where necessary, renew.

This is the preferred strategy of the bourgeois parties SVP and FDP. Many of their exponents also want a free trade agreement with the United States. Some therefore suspect behind the praising words of the freedom-minded Federal President Keller-Sutter on the controversial speech by US Vice President JD Vance an attempt to « add up » at Trump, as SP National Councilor Jacqueline Badran said.

At the Munich Security Conference, Vance had alleged circumcision of freedom of expression in Europe as a greater danger than Russia or China. In some of the speech, Keller -Sutter recognized a plea for direct democracy – which led to a storm of outrage. With the appearance at “Infrarouge”, the Federal President tried to deal with her statements.

2. Approach to Europe

A second strategy is approaching Europe. Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis promoted this in a speech at the end of January. The new order is « without clear contours ». Therefore, Switzerland has to strengthen its relationships with the direct neighbors: « We have negotiated an excellent agreement with the EU, » said Cassis, « it is time to raise courage and overcome the last internal obstacles. »

The National Council's Security Policy Commission went in the same direction last week: It wants to commission the Federal Council to « intensify the cooperation with regard to the security policy cooperation with Europe ».

The approach to Europe is the preferred strategy of the left parties, green liberals and parts of the middle. An important argument: geopolitics may change, geography does not change – and Switzerland is in the middle of Europe.

The problem: The European strategy would result in the new contracts negotiated with the EU. However, the SVP, parts of the FDP and some business representatives still reject the institutional approach to the EU. The topic also divides the Federal Council. That should be one of the reasons for his silence.

3. Dive diving

A third strategy recently addressed Federal Council candidate Markus Ritter. Switzerland is doing well to « stay under the radar in the current discussions, » he said in an interview with the NZZ.

A comprehensible wish. However, if, for example, Switzerland is fighting to sit at the table with the largest economic nations in the G20, diving is hardly possible. Especially since the USA and the EU have proven several times that they always have Switzerland on the radar – whether we want it or not. Keyword bank secret or newsless assets.

Does the Federal Council find out of its speechlessness?

In the political debate, the two most important options are often played against each other: either more Europe or more free trade. And recently also: either Brussels or Washington. A shortening that does not lead to the political and economic reality.

In between is the Federal Council, which has to pursue both options forced. In view of the importance and the close integration with the United States, he wants to, yes, he has to quickly establish a good contact with the Administration Trump. At the same time, Swiss Ukraine policy, which is based on international law, contradicts Trump's desired dictation peace. This is a fundamental conflict. The Federal Council has obviously not yet found a recipe for the relationship with Trump and his entourage.

The starting point is also difficult for European policy: the Federal Council will soon have to give the threads out of hand. As soon as he has passed the message about the new EU contracts in spring, the parliament takes over. And there it is becoming apparent that the big government parties FDP, middle and possibly also the SP will play temporarily – until after the 2027 elections.

In the past few days it has been heard that the Federal Council was aware of the need for clarification and explanation. Bloss: The responsible bodies continue to pass the hot potato among themselves. The next Federal Council meeting is on Friday. Let's see if the government finds out of its speechlessness until then.