how an excess of dollars and yuan raises the ruble exchange rate

The Russian currency confidently strengthens the positions – the dollar and the yuan are updated by two -year minimums. On the side of the ruble is played by a seasonal factor in the form of a high offer of currency by exporters and low demand for it importers, the payments of which are already 50% in rubles. In the absence of an escalation of the geopolitical situation and while maintaining the strict policy of the Bank of Russia, the dollar exchange rate may drop to 75 rubles/$. While maintaining the trend, analysts allow the introduction of restrictive measures by the financial authorities: too strong the ruble can create a problem for the budget of the Russian Federation.

On May 29, the dollar exchange rate in the over -the -term market reached 77.46 rubles./$, The minimum value from May 15, 2023. This is 2.4 rubles. (3%) below the closing of the medium. The two -year minimum was also updated by the Chinese currency course. During the trading on the Moscow Exchange, the Yuan course decreased to 10.84 rubles/CNY, a minimum from May 30, 2023. Even taking into account the correction in the afternoon, the courses of leading currencies remain 1.2–1.3% lower than the closing values ​​of the past week.

The strengthening of the ruble contributed to several factors, the key of which is the ongoing reduction in demand for currency in the domestic market. According to the Bank of Russia, in April, the purchases of foreign currency in the exchange and over -the -term markets were reduced by 17%, to 1.8 trillion rubles, a minimum since in June 2024 the bidding of the dollar and the euro stopped on the Moscow Exchange. Most of the dollar purchases fell by almost 23%, up to 592 billion rubles.

Demand for currency is reduced, despite the restoration of imports. According to the Central Bank, in April, the import of goods and services reached $ 30.6 billion, adding 5.5% per month and exceeding the indicator of April last year by 8.9%. However, more and more imports are paid by rubles, which leads to a drop in demand for currency.

According to the managing expert of the Center for Analytics and Expertise of PSB Denis Popov, more than 50% of foreign trade operations are already carried out in rubles. A year earlier, the Russian currency occupied a little more than 40%.

The demand for currency is reduced from the residents who reduce the volume of capital withdrawal from Russia. According to PSB analysts, if in January the total increase in foreign assets among residents amounted to $ 7.7 billion, then in April – only $ 2.9 billion.

“This trend, on the one hand, is a consequence of the high attractiveness of ruble assets due to the prolonged stiffness of the DCP of the Bank of Russia, on the other, it is necessary to use its own resources to develop business in the context of a substantial restriction of access to borrowed capital,” Denis Popov notes.

In such conditions, even the completion of the tax period, which traditionally leads to a decrease in the supply of currency by exporters, did not affect the movement of courses. Moreover, companies can sell it in excess of the required in order to prepare ruble liquidity to pay dividends. For example, in May – June of 2024, according to the Bank of Russia, the largest exporters sold 108–116% of foreign exchange earnings against 93% on average in the previous months since the beginning of the year. In the next two weeks, dividends will pay several large exporters (Lukoil, Tatneft, Fosagro, Acron) in the amount of almost 517 billion rubles.

Under the current conditions, the strengthening of the ruble may continue. According to the chief analyst of the Sovcombanus Mikhail Vasiliev, in the basic scenario (without significant geopolitical changes), the dollar exchange rate may be in the range of 75–82 rubles/$, yuan – 10.4–11.4 rubles/CNY. The restraining factor for a stronger reduction in foreign currencies will be increasing risks of budget execution, which, taking into account the right to this week, is calculated based on the dollar up to 94.3 rubles/$ (previously 96.5 rubles ./ $). “The average price of a barrel of Russian oil as a result of a review was reduced from 6.7 thousand to 5.3 thousand rubles. So, at the price of a barrel, 4.5–5 thousand rubles. The budget deficit can be 5-15% exceeding scheduled indicators, ”said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

In case of further reduction in the dollar, the budget deficit will grow, which increases the likelihood of introducing new measures by the financial authorities.

These include verbal interventions about the unwillingness of the ruble strengthening, reducing the sale of currency in the framework of budget operations with the transition to replenishing the currency in reserves. “It is possible to completely cancel the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings, the active release of non -residents from the“ C ”type, weakening restrictions on the withdrawal of capital, a decrease in the key rate with a clear slowdown in inflation,” Mikhail Vasiliev lists. Previously, these measures have proven their effectiveness and will be able to deploy the current trend to strengthen the ruble. The government’s decision to cancel the mandatory repatriation of the currency in July 2022 gave a multi -month impulse for the growth of the US dollar, the result of which was the return of these requirements in October 2023.

Vitaly Gaidaev