Happy EU licks wounds: Poland is not going to reform – but will get money

Another five years of dealing with an arch -conservative president in Poland: the reality that descends after the Polish elections not only provides drivers in Warsaw, but also those in Brussels. The European Union is preparing for new collisions and is there weaker than before.

That is not how Prime Minister Donald Tusk would like to present things. The victory of Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and former Hooligan without political experience, « will not change anything » to the ambitious agenda of Tusks Centrumrecht Government, the Prime Minister herself. On Wednesday, Tusk organizes a vote of trust in the Polish Parliament that must prove that his government in the parliament still enjoys sufficient support.

But in Brussels, few are all about the fact that the election of another nationalist as president will really have major consequences for Polish and European policy in the coming years. Nawrocki, a diplomat sighed this week, « could be more difficult than his predecessor, » the waving President Andrzej Duda.

Opponents frustrate

Polish presidency is mainly a ceremonial function, but the president has an extremely powerful means of frustrating his political opponents: a presidential veto. Since the election of Tusk in 2023, Duda has already made full use of this to be bothered by the new government in his attempts to restore the rule of law. Nawrocki has already announced that he too does not want to know anything about a collaboration with the Tusk government.

Formally, Nawrocki was an independent candidate. Yet he cannot be seen separately from PIS, the conservative nationalist party that was continuously in power between 2015 and 2023, the years in which the independence of the judiciary came to the journey and in which Warsaw came to collect the EU. Pis supported Nawrocki’s candidacy. His task as a president is therefore simple: to make life miserable.

The EU has misunderstood itself. Poland has grown into an influential country within the Union, with the third largest economy of the entire block and a leading role in the defense discussion. Everyone wants to work with Poland, especially since Donald Tusk’s return as Prime Minister after years of Euroscepsis and friction. The recently taken on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz immediately started his period with a double visit to Paris and Warsaw in one day.

And so the Polish government got a lot of credit. Wait, said diplomats in recent months when Poland did not give home in European discussions. Tusks government could not afford controversy in the run -up to these crucial elections. The opposition to the introduction of new European migration rules, against a climate goal for 2040, against the negotiations on the Mercosur Trade Convention: it was all forgiven.

The question is whether the Tusk government will still move in a number of files, because the elections are now lost and there is less at stake for the time being. But no one can count on a signature by the Polish president, and moreover it is uncertain whether Tusk’s partners still want to support sensitive proposals after the election defeat.

Dock

The big question is what the European Union can do now if it wants to tackle the Poles. For years, the European Commission acted fiercely against the erosion of the rule of law under the PIS regime. Poland became in 2018 as the first country ever Interviewed by the rest of the EU and then ended up in a procedure that could have resulted in depriving voting rights in the EU. Often the country was side by side in the dock with Viktor Orbáns Hungary.

The most noticeable consequence of the dissatisfaction in Brussels was a different measure. As a punishment for violating the rule of law, 137 billion euros in EU subsidies was frozen, a loss for the Polish treasury. This involved subsidies from the Coronaherstelfonds and money from the very generous regional funds for Poland.

Everything changed with Tusk’s appointment. He soon came up with a large reform agenda and promised to work as quickly as possible on making the judiciary independent. For Ursula von der Leyen, the chairman of the European Commission, that promise was sufficiently every 137 billion euros in subsidies from the refrigerator to get. Of these, 27 billion euros has since been paid.

But Tusk could never fully realize his promises, because President Duda Vetode plans. With the election of Nawrocki, fulfilling that promise seems even further away. In the meantime, many a diplomat scratches the ear whether the gesture of Von der Leyen was such a good decision.

Accountant

« Officially, the EU hears the fulfillment of those promises as an accountant and not politically evaluating, » says John Morijn, professor of law and international relations at the University of Groningen. « But that releasing the money was of course a gesture to Tusk, also from party -political considerations (Von der Leyen and Tusk are both Christian Democrats, ed.). That makes it difficult to look at it again as an accountant. »

The EU and Tusk have not proven themselves service, says Morijn. « For Tusk it is difficult to urge Von der Leyen to block money for his own country. And for the EU it is difficult to freeze the funds again. You would need a new fact for that. »

« The strategic error from both sides was to release everything in one go, » said Morijn. « Now you have the baked pears. »

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