Government prepares political combat

Most larger than Luis Montenegro asked voters not to free the AD government to predict new headaches to govern in the new legislature that begins in June. Of the good news possible on Sunday night, Montenegro had only two. Not the most determinants, in view of the results, but those that allow us to give some comfort to the government of the democratic alliance: the end result gives a 10 percentage point advantage over the party in second place; AD has managed to elect more deputies than the whole left together.

With a reinforced majority, the PSD leader, who focused the entire campaign in himself, had reason to sing victory. But in the AD headquarters the results began to be read immediately as an orange signal for the next government. No one expected, nor did the polls indicate it, that the elections would dictate a reinforcement of the arrival of such a dimension that they would put André Ventura’s party as the opposition leader. Faced with the facts, the strategy for the future must change.
«Negotiating with everyone, everyone, was the strategy announced by Montenegro in the victory speech. Although it seems more of the same, given what happened in the last 11 months of government, the new parliamentary geography requires other options. With a parliament radically unbalanced to the right, it is no longer possible to marginalize the arrival, or seek understanding preferably with the Socialist Party. The conclusion is obvious, but the execution may not be easy and this is the biggest headache that the prime minister’s hard core has right now.
How will André Ventura behave now that he is the leader of the second largest party? Who will succeed Pedro Nuno Santos at the head of the PS are two questions that AD expects to see answered in the coming days, to be able to draw an action plan for the government.

While waiting, AD officials are clear that government coordination and political direction will have to be very tuned so as not to give wrong signs to an electorate who, once again, gave signs of exhaustion against a stagnant country, which has bored in the last 51 years between PS governments and PSD governments. The idea of ​​’central block of interests’, often repeated by André Ventura, settled in the minds of the Portuguese. Sufficient reason that within the ad one there is the awareness that on the success or failure of the next government, it may depend on the future of the PSD as a great party of democracy.

Reforming government
« We have to work to get the image of reformist government, similar to what happened to Cavaco Silva back there, or Pedro Passos Coelho more recently, » one minister tells the sunrise.
But what reforms can be expected from a government without a majority in parliament? According to the same source, continuing the way of regulating immigration is one of the priorities, but the government is aware that it is necessary to act in other sectors. Among the priorities is labor legislation in which the executive should want to make some changes in the sense of greater flexibility.

Going to meet a theme that has been greatly glossed by arrival, ad also has to revisit social support policies. A greater supervision and even the introduction of new rules for access is the possible way to reduce the perception of subsidiary dependence that has settled in the country.

A new wave of privatization is another topic that is on the executive’s agenda, « we have to deepen the state’s departure from some sectors where it still has excessive weight, namely in the transport sector, » our governor source tells us.

Maintaining tax descent policy (Miranda Sarmento has already committed to a new IRS descent in an interview with RTP), continuing the changes started in the education sector and obtaining health results, are bets with which the government wants to reinforce its image in the eyes of the Portuguese.

The always postponed Social Security reform, should be once again in a water bath, at least in the immediate. The justification given to the sunrise of the sun is the risks that the reform behaves in the immediate. « It has to be done, but it is not an urgency for the next 3 or 4 years. » With the socialists in great difficulties, the government does not want to risk giving the party a good argument to regain a flag against the PSD. According to the sources heard by our newspaper, reconciliation with pensioners is still a process underway and therefore, if the government can handle the legislature, the Social Security reform, it is a dossier that should be relegated to the end of the legislature, or will even be thrown to the next legislature.

AR continues at the center of political activity
To succeed, the government will have to manage negotiations in Parliament, which will have to take place at a daily pace.
Contrary to what happened last year, this time, there is a party (PS) with great desire to make understanding with AD and another (arrives) nothing interested. On the government side, the priority is not to give the electorate wrong signs. In a country that turned to the right, it is indispensable to look for agreements with André Ventura, especially in matters such as the descent of taxes, labor legislation and state reforms. The opening of a constitutional revision process is the first test to the way AD will manage its party role.

Comforted by the idea that there is a constitutional majority on the right, liberal initiative and arrives already made known that they will open the process. Hugo Soares, parliamentary leader of the PSD, said this is not a priority for AD, « not even any Portuguese is worried about it. » The problem is that, whether or not the government parties will even have to confront the issue. At the sunrise, Hugo Soares says that if a constitutional revision process is opened, « the PSD will not lack the call, which has to involve all parties with parliamentary seat, » he should be understood as a sign that social democrats will not align in an attempt to use the constitutional majority on the right, to leave the socialists out in any moxes in the elementary law.

The PSD leader and parliamentary leader recalls that the party has recently proposed a constitutional revision and that if the process progresses, party proposals should not be different from those presented then.
Constitutional revision is just a first sign that, for different reasons, Il and arrives, they will try to oblige AD to take on more radical positions on certain topics, but the coalition orders are to resist left or right pressures.