Gold quotes grew due to foreign policy of Donald Trump
Gold quotes on the global spot market for the first time rose above the level of $ 3100 per triple ounce. In many ways, the game of increase is related to the fears of a decline in the US economy against the backdrop of an aggressive foreign policy conducted by Donald Trump. At such prices, institutional investors are already starting to fix profit. But analysts are waiting for further prices, up to $ 3300–3500 per ounce, due to high demand from the central banks.
According to Investing.com, on March 31, the cost of gold on the global spot market rose to $ 3127.88 per troilian ounce, setting a new historical record. This result is 1.5% exceeded the closure of Friday. Since the beginning of the month, gold has risen by more than 9%, from the beginning of the year – by almost 20%.
Gold quotes increase against the background of multidirectional prices of other noble metals. So, the cost of silver decreased by 0.7%, to $ 33.9 per ounce. Platinum quotes increased in 2%in a week, to $ 995.7 per ounce, Palladium added 3.3%in price, and his quotes rose to $ 984.6 per ounce.
Ahead of the growth rate of gold price increased by an increase in geopolitical risks. Last weekend, US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and warned that he would introduce secondary restrictive measures against Russian oil. In addition, he threatened Iran’s bombardment, if Washington and Tehran are not reached an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program.
The concern of investors is also the influence of the US Hard Trade Policy on the economy of the country and the world.
Last week Donald Trump announced On the decision to apply duties in the amount of 25% on vehicle imports. He also did not rule out the introduction of new tariffs for goods from the EU and Canada if they cooperate with the goal of harm to Washington. In such conditions, an increasing number of analysts does not exclude recession in the American economy. “Investors are selling American actions, fearing that the new wave of Donald Trump’s duties will lead to an increase in inflation and will negatively affect economic growth, it may cause a recession in the US economy. Therefore, selling risky assets, investors go into a quiet harbor, where the main demand is formed for treasury bonds and gold, ”said Mikhail Shulgin, chief analyst of the Center for Investment Analytics of the Rosgosstrakh Life.
Adam Smith, Scottish philosopher, “Study of the nature and causes of the wealth of peoples”, 1776:
“Like all other goods, gold and silver are changing in their value: they are cheaper or more expensive, it is easier or more difficult to buy.”
It is noteworthy that against the background of the accelerated increase in gold, the demand for it is reduced by institutional investors. According to Bloomberg, over the past week, the assets of exchange funds (ETF) investing in gold decreased by 0.12 tons, to 2.73 thousand tons. This is the first weekly result with a minus sign over the past two months. “The institutions actively increased the investments in gold at the risks of geopolitics and recession at the beginning of the year, but now they have already reached their targets on allocation, including due to explosive prices,” said Astero Falcon, Astero Falcon Alena Nikolaeva. Therefore, according to her, since mid -March, large players « began to fix part of the profit and transfer to bonds. »
At the same time, analysts are waiting for further prices at the expense of other categories of investors, in particular central banks. So, at the beginning of the week, Goldman Sachs analysts increased the forecast for the purchases of precious metal centrobanks from 50 tons per month to 70 tons. In addition, the forecast for gold prices in 2025 was increased from $ 3300 to $ 3,500 per ounce. “In the conditions of deoglobalization, trade protectionism and open armed conflicts, the demand of the central banks for gold, the purpose of which is to diversify the structure of reserves is likely to remain,” says Mikhail Shulgin. According to the basic forecast SBERCIB Investment Research, the average price for the second quarter is $ 3100 per ounce, for the third quarter – $ 3200 per ounce, for the fourth – $ 3300 per ounce. “These figures suggest that the size of the geopolitical prize over the fair price is average 22%, which is comparable to the levels of the 2020 pandemium,” said Anna Pilgunova, senior Sbercib Investment Research.
Even in the case of de -escalation of conflicts, analysts are not waiting for price reduction. “After the victory in the fight against inflationary pressure, the global central banks will begin to reduce key rates, which will also support gold prices, reducing the attractiveness of investment in local currencies,” said Natalia Pyryeva, a leading analyst in the investment of the Broker Figure.
