Giorgetti: « Solid bases to face uncertainties ». The criticisms of Bankitalia and Court of Auditors at the DFP: « not very detailed »

«In a much more complex context than just a few months ago, Italy
It is characterized by a management of public finance, which allows you to confirm the objectives of net spending and reduction of the deficit and debt established in the plan last October. A state of affairs clearly recognized by the financial markets. Rating agencies are also
improving the judgment on our country, which is particularly reassuring since it occurs in a context of slowing down the global economy ». The
he said Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti In the hearing on
DFP, adding that the state of public finance « represents a solid basis to face the new needs, related to safety and defense as well as the change to the commercial and geopolitical structure « . « Italy – added Giorgetti – will continue to operate in a credible way and will be able to face the
better the difficult context, continuing to defend the solidity of his accounts
and to provide the necessary support for the economic and social system « .

First don’t take them

The priority of economic policy will be the control of public debt, Giorgetti assured, sitting in the hearing next to the Senator of Forza Italia Claudio Lotito, president of Lazio. «We are in the same situation. He plays a fundamental game tonight, and he leaves below two to zero. The first thing is not to take goals, otherwise it’s over. I have a debt that costs me 90 billion interests a year, the first thing to do is to put it safely, don’t take them, « said Giorgetti. The current situation, he added, is full of risks, but also opportunities. The growth forecasts formulated by the government are marked by the utmost prudence, a sign of seriousness, and discount a strong commercial crisis that has not yet materialized, which does not exclude a revision of estimates.

« Check shopping is programming »

Giorgetti has assured that the government will try to simplify the concessions envisaged by the Transition 5.0 plan, as also asked for by Confindustria today, and that an increase in the registry age for access to the pension is not scheduled. Then he replied to the criticisms of the Bank of Italy, the UPB and the Court of Auditors on the contents of the public finance document, which replaces the old Def, just presented to the rooms, and which according to the three institutions lacks programmatic indications on public finance. In the new European framework, the minister said, the spring budget session is « dedicated to verifying the objectives of net spending defined in the budget plan e This is also a programming».

According to the Bank of Italy, the DFP « contains few details » on the budget measures which can condition the performance of the expenditure, the new reference parameter of public finance. And « it is desirable that the future editions of the monitoring documents contain greater in -depth analysis On this point, regardless of what is strictly requested by Community legislation, « said Andrea Brandolini, deputy head of Bankitalia’s economic research during the auditions in the Senate.

Scenarios for debt are missing

« The full understanding and evaluation of the trend of net spending », the new EU reference parameter for public finance «require more details on the contribution of its subcomponents, in particular of the discretionary measures on the side of the revenue. Although the European rules have chosen net spending as a reference indicator for budget surveillance, this remains only an intermediate tool; The ultimate goal is the reduction of debt, « Bankitalia warned. And it may happen that this increases, even if net spending drops, so « it would be useful to have the expected debt trend in the medium-long period according to different macroeconomic scenarios ».

EU rules are minimum requirement

« More generally, as part of the revision of the national public finance legislation, currently underway, the indications of the European Commission regarding the content of the programming and monitoring documents should be considered as minimum requirements. As a country with a high debt, we are subject to the scrutiny of markets and international institutions. The availability of a large set of official forecasts and analyzes on sufficiently extended horizons – recalled the exponent of the Central Bank – constitutes a reference point for parliamentary and public opinion, but also a comparison term for estimates that are produced by international bodies (such as the IMF and the EU) and by private subjects « .

EU initiatives to finance defense

As for the trends of public accounts, Bankitalia recalled, the results achieved in 2024 better than the expectations compensate for the effect of the worsening of the macroeconomic framework, leaving almost unaltered the trends of the main sales compared to the provisions of the structural plan of the last autumn budget. The duties will certainly weigh and the uncertainties about the international economic framework are very high. «The recent improvement of the Italian rating by an important agency encourages to persevere in structural reforms and in an opposing budget policy. They become even more essential in the face of the uncertainty caused by the deterioration of commercial relations. The decision to increase military spending, dictated by recent geopolitical developments, must also be addressed with this approach. The deterrence against possible aggressions and the defense of the boundaries of the continent represent European public goods, and as such must be guaranteed and financed above all through common initiatives « .

Uncertainties and duties remove 0.2 points from GDP

Any persistence of uncertainty and the increase in commercial tensions could have on the Italian economy, according to Istat, a negative impact reducing the gross domestic product of 2 tenths of point in 2025 (compared to the current estimate of a +0.6%) and three tenths in 2026 (when the DFP estimates a growth of 0.8%.

Upb, information is missing

Even the Parliamentary Budget Office, which validated the tendential picture of the accounts procured by the Ministry of Economy, underlined how the new document « contains reduced information compared to what is usually presented in the past « both « a refresher and not programming document », postponing the indications to the main measures and covers of the future budget maneuver to autumn. Even the president of the UPB, Lilia Cavallari, hoped that with the review of the national accounting law, by receiving the new rules of the EU Pattoo, « consider the opportunity to present a picture
tendential on the entire horizon and maintain the start of the annual cycle of the budget programming in the first part of the year « .

Court of Auditors, difficult evaluations

The criticisms of the Court of Auditors have gone further. «In the DFP there is no only programmatic development, but also and above all a decisive information detail on different chapters of financial policy short and medium term. The indications on the composition of spending by sectors are limited, there are no adequate elements and indications on the changes on which you are working for the redesign of the PNRR, there are no indications on the choices that we propose to take on the shopping front for the defense sector. Elements that make it difficult to evaluate the hold of the overall framework and its consistency with what are the priorities of the government action « .