Germany, Merz’s « bazooka » (which is worth a thousand billion): so Berlin wants to leave after the crisis

Become chancellor of Germany was the dream of Friedrich Merzcultivated for years and always remained such. He had found on his way Angela Merkelwhich not only did he detest his hasty style, not very inclined to compromise and his neoliberal propensity: The leader for 16 years was also the political figure who gave a kindergarten to the Germans In a phase dotted with crisis but basically not dramatic. It was the right guide of the moment. Now, Merz is making her enter the Berlin chancellery: but in a period of great German structural crisis, this in many ways dramatic.

Farewell to the debt brake

His decision -making is already in deployment: passing the brake to debtinvestments in infrastructure and for the defense and urgent convocation of Parliament Vecchio to pass his proposal with a majority of two thirds – indispensable for changes to the Constitution – which he will not have in the new one. A chancellor who promises « Germany’s return to Europe ». In a conscious leadership positionno longer reluctant as in the past decades.
It is a fundamental development for the entire continent, for its safety and economics. That the country is the most relevant in Europe is not new: it is the geographical center, it is the largest economy, since the post -war period it has had an almost absolute stability, it is an indisputable model of democracynot to mention its cultural relevance. Now there is a new fact that makes Berlin’s role exceptional: there, the only great European government capable of sits mobilize resources and, hopefully, political direction in a phase in which the Europe has to face the major challenges of its existence: the political-military one and the reforms to relaunch the stagnant economy. In parallel.
Thanks to not having made deficits in recent years, Its relationship between public debt and GDP is around 63%: this makes it the only one among the EU countries to be able to plan the mobilization of 1,000 billion in twelve years (debt) without being massacred by the markets (as, to say, it happened to the government of Liz Truss In the United Kingdom And as would happen to Italy that it has a debt/GDP around 140%).

The coalition

The one of Merz and his government (in definition) will not be a walk between theCristianodemocratic Union CDU-CSU and the Social Democrats of the SPD. It is a Kleiko, a small coalition to differentiate it from the big koalition of when the two parties were truly mass: at the Bundestag he will have strong opponents, starting with the far right of the AFD. Above all, the country’s economy is in poor condition: It comes out for two years of substantial recession; The prospects induced by a new decision maker government are raising moods in industry and a little among consumers but the prestigious Think -ank IFO of Monaco provides, in its latest analysis, a growth of only 0.2% this year. Is that The model of the Merkelian years – Energy at a good price from Russia, a market open in China, zero reforms in 16 years of chancellor – is upside down. In addition, the digitization of the economy and the country was very evoked but did not happen, The financial system is rigid and the banks are not very efficient, The pension plan is expensivethe unions in some cases brake renovations, Innovation is scarcethe regulatory system is not always in favor of business, the population ages, there is a scarcity of workers in several sectors. The profound crisis of the car industry, a flagship of Germany’s historical eyelet, is the most evident sign of the need to change.

Bureaucracy

Not easy in a Slow country and with a pervasive bureaucracy. In addition, it is to be redone and relaunching the entire system of the Safety and of the Defensethe shield of America and NATO was so neglected. Merz must be sure that the billions that he will put on the table must be used efficiently: Not everyone is sure that waste and inefficiencies will be minimal; Above all, he will have to accompany them with reforms and liberalizations, also in the military supply system.
Merz and Kleiko project for now consists of the greater tax expansion from the post -war period. On three levels. One is a 500 billion fund financed by debt and out of the public budget. Will develop in twelve years And it will be used to improve infrastructure, which today are in bad or bad conditions: digitization, roads, railways, bridges, schools, power lines, etc. A second is the elimination of the constitutional brake to debt for military expenditure When they exceed 1% of GDP: it means that, up to 1%, defense costs (in an enlarged sense) will enter the public budget which remains constrained to a maximum deficit of 0.35% of the GDP, those that go beyond will have no limits. For example, for 2025, 1% of the GDP will be about 44 billion but the defense forecast budget is 53 billion: the nine difference will be free to become more, in theory without a roof especially in the years following this. The third level allows the 16 federal states to no longer respect the budget tie and to debt up to 0.35% of their GDP. Allianz provides that public debt will touch 68% of GDP in 2027.

Urgencies

But not only money money is lived. These first decisions were obliged by the urgency to pass them before the new Parliament enters office on March 25. Then, there will be the plans for investments and, above all, Put your hand to liberalizations and reforms, those of the marketthose of the work, those of the financial sector. In parallel, Berlin will have to go objective to create A defense system a credible minimum. There is also the possibility of reintroducing the Call for lever for the armysince the military today are insufficient. Open question both from a political point of view and from the economic one: always the IFO believes that The lever is too expensive for the entire economy, preferable would be significantly increasing the wages of the military to attract younger. In all this, Merz and the government will have to convince the Germans to be in control of the situation and to know how to conduct the country on a new road in non -biblical times.
Summary: The Germans face a cultural revolution in economics and defense. Precisely for the indispensability of Germany, the whole of Europe, iTalia in the lead, can only cheer on Friedrich Merz, the man who is not Merkel.