GDP, Bankitalia cuts estimates: Trump’s duties depress growth, in 2025 +0.6%, in the three -year period lost 0.7 points

The growth of the Italian economy will suffer due to the duties imposed by the USA administration on 2 April. In 2025 the gross domestic product will grow only by 0.6%, but the situation could even worsen for any retaliable measures by the EU and other economies and if they argue tensions on the financial markets. The first official estimate of the impact of the commercial war comes from the Bank of Italy, which has updated its forecasts on the Italian economy of the next three years. Overall, between 2025 and 2028, only the duties imposed by the USA will cost 0.7 points of GDP to Italian growth.

Detention export, support from consumption

The growth of this year’s GDP, estimated last December at 0.8%, will stop at 0.6%, will just come up next year ( +0.8% compared to the 1.1% estimate of a few months ago) and will return to flex in 2027, with a +0.7% compared to 0.9% hypothesized in December. The expansion of the product would be the consumption of families, thanks to the recovery of purchasing power, while for investments a contained growth is estimated. « The progressive transmission to the conditions of financing of the progressive reduction of rates would exercise a positive impact especially in the next two years ». Exports would significantly be affected by the US duties: they would be « stagnant » in ’25 and slightly resumed in ’26 -27. The occupation would continue to rise, even if at a rhythms lower than in the past, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 6.6% of ’24 to 6% in ’25 and would then be stable.

Risks of further worsening

« These projections – warns the Bank of Italy – are subject to high uncertainty connected above all with the evolution of the international context. Exports and investments could be affected to a greater extent than the provisions of the invitation of commercial policies and its reflections on the trust of companies. Particularly marked negative effects could derive from a further increase in uncertainty on commercial policies, from any retracing measures and prolonged tensions on the financial markets « .

Opportunities from the EU plan on defense

On the contrary, the Central Bank underlines, « positive effects may occur following a more expansive orientation of budgetary policy at European level, also in connection with the advertisements for the increase in defense expenses ». Inflation could undergo, especially in the short term, raised pressures « deriving from a retaliation increase in duties by the EU ». In Italy the growth in prices in 2025 would stop in any case at1.6%, would drop to 1.5% in 2026 and is estimated at 2% in ’27.