Future Forest Fires may crack Europe’s Fire Defense

It may sound like a paradox. The total area affected by fires in forest and land has decreased both globally and in Europe, thanks to improved opportunities to detect and fight the fires. Despite this, fires are an increasing threat to us humans, our infrastructure and to sensitive ecosystems.

This is because the fires have changed character and that the risk of intense, explosive mega fires has increased, explains Thomas Elmqvist. He is a professor of natural resource management at Stockholm University and responsible for environmental issues within the European Academies of Sciences Scientific Council Easac, which recently released the report « Changing Wildfires-Policy Options for a Fire-Literate and Fire-Adepted Europe ».

– An important conclusion is that we have to think in new paths to protect ourselves, so far almost all the focus has been on strengthening the ability to extinguish fires.

– But if you look at the forecasts in the future, we see that we hardly have the opportunity to control the type of explosive fires that can arise, no matter how strongly we are, says Thomas Elmqvist.

In Europe goes The fastest change in the Mediterranean. But even at Sweden’s latitudes, the development is clear. As an example, Thomas Elmqvist points to the extensive fires that are now sweeping over the third year in a row large parts of Canada. At the time of writing, there are about 200 fires, half of which are considered to be completely out of control despite huge efforts. More than 30,000 people are evacuated from their homesvillages and smaller cities are burning down.

– It is not excluded that what we see in Canada may occur in Sweden as well. We have quite similar conditions. You can also think about what happened in Västmanland in the summer of 2014. Then it was very close that larger communities were destroyed by the huge fires, says Thomas Elmqvist.

– Therefore, it is so important to invest more in preventive measures, so that future fires do not have as serious consequences as they can otherwise have.

In the report, the researchers point out two decisive causes of the increased risk of major fires. One is climate change, which gives more occasions with long dry periods. The second is the extensive changes in nature that have taken place in the wake of large -scale forestry and urbanization.

– The fact that climate change plays a major role can probably most people understand, and it is about implementing the decisions that are already made and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, point end, says Thomas Elmqvist.

– But even without climate change, the fire risk would be greater, because of how we have changed the countryside.

He points out, among other things, that large areas have been dry with extinction and how varied environments with a variety of different plants have been replaced with monocultures, where large areas are covered by one and the same species of the same age.

– A typical case is our Swedish forestry. Large plantings with peers and equally high conifers without deciduous trees and with many extinct wetlands. Then the risk increases sharply for intense crown fires, where the fire can jump between the tree tops and spread quickly over large areas.

In some cases may Such forest fires grow in strength so that they create their own weather systems with local storm winds, which spread the fire further.

– The risk of crown fire in Sweden is to some extent an effect of human planning and planting as pure coniferous forests are a prerequisite for this phenomenon. It is a whole new fire behavior, which can throw the fire several kilometers, says Thomas Elmqvist.

The report also addresses what is called fire traps. They arise as a result of successful control of minor fires. Over time, more and more combustible material is gathered in nature, which can eventually give rise to a giant fire that cannot be controlled.

– It is an important thing that we want to highlight, that all fires are not evil. On the contrary, low -intensity fires are a normal element in many ecosystems. Several plant species are dependent on fire to be able to establish themselves, for example our Swedish fire fist. Those plants may in turn be necessary for different insect species, and so on.

One of the actions As the researchers suggest to reduce the risk of great fires, therefore, to a greater extent are to build smaller, controlled fires under safe conditions. It can reduce the amount of fuel and benefit species that are adapted to recurring fires.

But the most important measures are about recreating more varied environments in both forest and land in different ways, explains Thomas Elmqvist. It often goes hand in hand with several other climate and environmental goals that already exist, not least in the EU’s new law on nature restoration. For example, a larger element of mixed forests can favor threatened, forestry species and give storm -safe forests – while decreasing the risk of great fires.

– And the goal of returning wetlands to bind coal and creating habitats for biodiversity also provides natural fire streets in the landscape and protection for both plants and animals in the event of a fire.

The boundary between nature And urban environments are identified as a particularly important place in the report. This is partly due to the risk that the fire can spread to housing and buildings, and partly because many fires are caused by human mistakes – a risk that increases the more people moving in an area. Therefore, it is extra important to implement preventive measures in these places, the researchers write.

– A great danger is environments that no one cares anymore or manages, which are being triggered and becoming increasingly flammable. There may be abandoned agricultural lands or areas around cities. But what is needed to reduce the fire risk often coincides with nature we appreciate for recreation, such as open forests with high biodiversity, says Thomas Elmqvist.

– So no major changes or new policy decisions are required, but you can raise awareness and work with the tools we already have.

It sounds simple and obvious when you describe it. Is there no hook?

– Yes, it may sound easy, but it is a long -term job that can take several decades. Therefore, we believe that it is important to point out that there are so many synergies with other goals that society has set, so that it becomes easier for decision makers to understand the point, says Thomas Elmqvist.

Read more:

The warning: « especially difficult » situation with forest fires this summer

Rare species get new chance after the fire

So the fires create their own thunderstorms and tornadoes

The forest fire forces whole villages on the run away from the flames

The insurance industry: Prepare Sweden better for extreme weather