From seven to 81 billion euros: EU presents first customs package calculations
Donald Trump’s huge customs package will not remain unanswered. But what reactions the US president from Europe can expect is not yet clear.
According to a first analysis by the EU, tariffs from a total of more than 81 billion euros could be due on EU goods. For comparison: So far it was only seven billion.
EU politicians have long repeated that there will be a decisive and appropriate answer. Therefore, the Trump measures are now analyzed in the European Union and reactions are weighed up. Because countermeasures can also have negative effects on European companies.
On Monday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to discuss the situation with the steel and car industry on Tuesday with the pharmaceutical industry. In principle, several options are available to the EU:
Balance of payments and foreign assets status of the eurozone
In 2024, the current account of the euro area had a surplus of 426 billion euros (2.8 percent of the GDP of the euro area), after a surplus of 243 billion euros (1.7 percent of GDP) the previous year. This development was powered by larger surpluses in goods (from 264 to 372 billion euros), services (from 127 to 169 billion euros) and primary income (from 20 to 54 billion euros).
The estimates for the goods trading according to product groups show that the increase in the excess of goods in 2024 is mainly due to a reduction in the deficit in energy products (from 314 to EUR 260 billion). In addition, the surpluses in chemical products and machines and finished goods (from 244 to 268 billion euros or from 283 to 300 billion euros rose).
The larger surplus in the services in 2024 was mainly due to the expansion of the surplus in telecommunications, computers and information (from 169 to 203 billion euros) and travel (from 52 to 61 billion euros) and a lower deficit for other company -related services (from 60 to 28 billion euros).
EU-USA performance balance
In 2024, the euro area recorded a current account surplus of three billion euros (0.0 % of the GDP of the euro area) compared to the United States, according to a deficit of 30 billion euros in 2023. The euro area between 2015 and 2019 recorded a rather stable current account of the united states of around 1.0 percent of the GDP, which then gradually returned in 2022 Deficit.
Since 2015, the euro area has had a persistent and considerable trade surplus compared to the United States, which increases from 127 in 2015 to 213 billion euros in 2024.
The significant decrease in the current account surplus of the euro area compared to the United States in the past ten years is primarily due to a significant expansion of the deficit in the services (from 21 in 2015 to 156 billion euros in 2024), which is due to a growing deficit for the use of intellectual property (from five to 168 billion euros).
The developments in the bilateral current account of the euro area compared to the United States, in particular the significant changes to be observed since 2019, are partly related to the activities of multinational US companies in the euro area.
Counter -tariff
The first counter -tariffs are to come in mid -April. It is currently exposed to US products such as jeans, bourbon whiskey, motorcycles from the manufacturer Harley-Davidson and peanut butter. However, these levies are not a reaction to Trump’s latest announcements, but on US special tariffs to steel and aluminum imports that already apply.
In the case of the counter-tariffs, it was important not to cut yourself into your own meat, emphasizes an EU official. The EU can also introduce soybeans from Brazil. If there is no alternative to US products, there should be no against tariffs. The Commission had published an almost 100 -page list of goods that could be affected by countermeasures. In addition to food, soap products, carpets and clothing are listed.
The « Bazooka »
Also because of a possible re -election of Trump, the EU had already agreed on a far -reaching sanction instrument in 2023. The chairman of the EU Parliament’s Commercial Committee, Bernd Standen (SPD), describes it as « Bazooka » of possible countermeasures. This option is on the table. But he also emphasized: « This is not the first choice. » Before that, there are more traditional measures that can be considered.
For US tariffs on cars, the first EU counter tariffs are to come in mid-April. Photo: Getty Images via AFP
For example, the so-called instrument against coercive measures is intended to enable punitive tariffs against third countries who, with economic measures, are inadmissible to intervene in the political decisions of the EU or the EU member states.
Access to the allocation of public orders from the EU or market access can also be generally limited as possible sanctions. The chairwoman of the internal market committee of the European Parliament, Anna Cavazzini (Greens), cited examples that access to banking, insurance and capital markets of the EU could be limited to American companies.
Digital tax
Taxes on digital services from US companies in the EU could make the platform X from Trump supporter Elon Musk and companies such as Google, Amazon or Netflix. For them, the EU with around 450 million inhabitants is an extremely lucrative market.
ILEA: « Customs pose existential threats »
Trump’s tariffs hit the automotive supplier industry in Luxembourg with its approximately 9,000 employees. Because Americans will ask fewer cars from Europe if they are too expensive.
Julian Proffitt, President of the Luxembourg supplier Association Ilea and Managing Director of the Raval company, which produces in Nieder Kerschen tank ventilation valves, recently told the « Luxemburger Word »: « For European automotive suppliers, including those from Luxembourg, present these tariffs an existential threat that tightens and the workplace loss Could further weaken investment activity. «
The United States alone generates a quarter of the EU trade surplus in automotive components. Every fifth car and every fifth car section export the European manufacturers to the USA.
The companies are now facing difficult decisions: shift production, absorb costs or lose market share?
The European auto industry therefore needs new sales markets, be it in Asia or South America. The EU is now benefiting that a free trade agreement was only concluded with the Mercosur countries of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in December. Together they have more than 700 million inhabitants, twice as much as the USA. (Update: 9:25 a.m.) Mem
In addition, the EU Commission emphasizes that the USA will export significantly more services to the EU than imported from the EU. According to EU numbers, it is around 396.4 billion euros exports compared to imports of 292.4 billion euros.
negotiations
Brussels continues to signal willingness to negotiate. « The European Union does not want to escalate, it wants to negotiate. From a fair position, but also a position of strength, » said an EU official.
EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic has announced that it is looking for a conversation with the US side today. « We will be calm, carefully staggered and act uniformly, » he wrote. So far, talks between the EU and the US representatives have not produced any tangible results. Sefcovic was only a few days ago for talks in Washington.
Donald Trump: This is how the world reacts to the US customs package
According to Lange, offers were always made to talk about concrete compromises, which had been rejected. First of all, one must know where there is a willingness to negotiate on the American side, emphasizes the trading policy. « This is the big problem at the moment. »
More intensive trading partnerships
While talks with the United States are currently running tough, the drastic policy of the US President could breathe new life into other, long-standing projects. The EU Commission recently completed negotiations on a huge free trade zone with the South American state alliance Mercosur. However, the agreement can still fail, in any case the EU Parliament has to agree.
EU Council President António Costa called after US President Donald Trump’s customs announcements that it is now time to ratify the agreement. In addition, it is checked to what extent other partnerships could be intensified, for example with Mexico or with countries particularly affected by US tariffs.
Trump’s customs orgy is also painful for Americans
Germany’s executive Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) said that now it shows how important it was to expand free trade relationships with partners around the world. As examples, she cited the Indopazacific region, New Zealand and Australia.
(Update: 10:20 a.m.)
Luxembourg Foreign Ministry: Services not (yet) recorded
When asked, the Luxembourg Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that transatlantic trade was an important mainstay. « The United States is one of the most important commercial partners of Luxembourg. We regret that the American administration has announced further tariffs, » says the Luxembourg Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
These would have negative consequences for the global economy, the ministry sums up. The transatlantic trade remains a « source of prosperity, stability and well -paid jobs on both sides of the Atlantic ». Services would make up most of the exchange, but these have not yet been recorded by the tariffs.
Now it is important to analyze the influence and consequences of the tariffs carefully and « then present a common European answer » which brings us to the negotiating table « .
Luxembourg continues to rely on dialogue with the USA and the avoidance of an « escalation that harms both sides ». One will continue to work for a fair and fair international trade, “together with the EU and the other partners in the world.
(Update: 12:35 p.m.)
China reacts violently
China announced on Friday afternoon (CET) counter-tariffs on US imports of 34 percent. The tariffs should come into force on April 10, as the customs commission of the Chinese State Council announced.
