From quorum to abstention: the stakes for the parties in the referendums of 8 and 9 June

The quorum It is a very high mountain, a company scares it. But for The five questions on which the Italians are called today and tomorrow to the vote – four on work safety and Jobs Act and one on citizenship – The battle is fiery, beyond the repeal of the laws or not. Many parties and their leaders play slices of power and also of the future. Why The fight, quiet for monthsis now visible and explicit.

The abstentionists

It is only in the last month that he has entered the heart of the competition, paradoxically with an exit of those who immediately called themselves out of the tenzone: Antonio Tajani in fact he said, first, that His party was deployed for abstentionalso creating a certain discomfort to Fratelli d’Italia, who would have liked to avoid a direct contrast precisely for miss the quorum focusing on poor attention to the questions.

The FDI line

Initially Giorgia Meloni’s party He was crossed: « Our line? Pretend to us dead … », ironized a big one, precisely that the spotlight of the politics remained off and the game was alone « A regulation of accounts » inside the Sinistrto. In reality, as the days pass, the PD with Elly Schlein he married more and more strength The questions defended to the bitter end by the CGIL secretary Maurizio Landiniaccording to the center -right, the real deus ex machina of the countryside with a double strategy: to force the dem leader to insist on the typical issues of the union left and prepare the way for its direct entry into politics, with a new movement or climbing the Democratic Party.

The challenge to the left

« They are all my business, they are exploiting the referendum » have thundered in the last few days both from Fi and from the League of Matteo Salvini, The least exposed party. But the tam tam, also thanks to the strong contrasts on the management of International crisis And Security decree, He has led to increase attention on an « weapon » that can cure the government’s certainties.

« Quota 12.4 million »

Here is the direct lunge of Schlein, however summarized by the words of the party colleague Francesco Boccia: «If we reach 12.4 million votes, it is a eviction of Meloni». « The government is afraid, » Landini insisted with less exposed conte. A non -random figure, because it is precisely the votes that the center -right to the policies obtained. And in fact, A mass of voters Of this type, in a consultation that does not create easy debate among citizens, it would be a remarkable result, view the turnout continuously.

Meloni and the cards

Precisely for this too the premier, After exponents of his party as the President of the Senate La Russa had claimed (among the controversies) the choice of abstention, took the field to say that she would be gained to the seat but without collecting the cards Because « there is no obligation to vote on a referendum », but also because the campaign to go to the sea does not seem coherent if fueled by those who govern. So much so that the leader of us moderate Maurizio Lupi (and with him also the blue governor of Calabria Roberto Occhiuto), they said they will vote five no. Then Meloni entered the merits, saying « very contrary » to the question on the halving of the times to obtain citizenship, theme on which Forza Italia with it ius scholae Play a game entirely inside the majority.

The numbers

Everyone will look at the numbers. If you get to the quorum, it would be a half earthquake for the governmentgiven the choice of abstention. But also a share around the 40% would play like strong alarm bellsince all votes of the center -left and not fully in practice would be: there are in fact Pd, M5S, AVS compact on the yes to all questions, while Action and Italy Viva are much more warm. Under 25%, the threshold of 12.4 will span millions of votes indicated by the Democratic Party, The government could also exult. But Patatrac are not predictable in any case, without least sensational results in one sense or another. The verdict tomorrow, calculating every vote or not vote. This time everything will count.