Former head Mi6: ‘Putin has the name to be a big strategist. He’s not. He is an opportunist ‘

Alex Younger fishes up and down for almost fifteen minutes Alex Younger in a glass of hot water. Only then does the former chief of secret service Mi6 carefully take a first sip.

Sir Alex Younger (61) was the longest serving head of the famous British intelligence service, which was made immortal by James Bond. In jokes about ‘007’, Younger laughs at it politely – albeit not entirely wholeheartedly. With soft voice he analyzes the world in the second era Trump, but his conclusions about Europe are hard. « We have been naive and arrogant. »

In 2014 he became the boss of the British foreign intelligence service. Internally referred to as ‘C’, he ran the renowned British spy network from the intimidating fort-like headquarters on the Thames in London. During his six years in Office The Western supremacy crumbled rapidly and Washington and London were openly challenged by Moscow and Beijing. Younger often talks about the tilting world order, such as this Monday at a meeting for business relations of energy company Eneco in Rotterdam.

This afternoon Trump and Putin call each other about Ukraine. Is a sustainable peace in sight?

« No, no. No. »

Younger pauses.

« Of course, talking is good. It is excellent that diplomacy is at work now. You have to give that Trump. And the previous policy (limited armrest, ed.) Of the West was also not very credible, that was that we helped Ukraine to lose slowly. So we have to open for a new approach.

We are following the unnecessary regulation of the tech companies, so that we know for sure that we will never develop a healthy tech sector in Europe

« Where Trump is wrong, he thinks this is conflict about territory. That is not the case, it’s all about sovereignty. When Putin warned us about the invasion, what he did in an essay in 2021, he wrote that an independent Ukraine, and certainly a western country is not an only proof – zero – that Putin has come back. The words you should pay attention to in his language are ‘denazification’ and ‘demilitarization’, which would amount to a defenseless Ukraine. Zelensky can of course agree with that. « 

When does Trump get enough and he jerks his hands off the conflict?

« I honestly worry about that. Putin does not feel any pressure yet, while Trump could exert an enormous influence on him. Putin also has no plan B, the only way to get what he wants is through Trump. If Trump would connect his instinctive support for Putin, then we would like to say DONALD. »

For the time being, Trump has mainly put pressure on Zensky.

« I think Trump encourages Putin to put his heels in the sand. Trumps threat to get out of the negotiations is not a threat at all: it is exactly what Putin wants, especially if that means that there are fewer weapons to Ukraine. So Putin will be able to go further. In 2022, when Ukraine could only get a handful of militia, and now it is not possible to control Ukraine in Europe.

Which deal could take Putin?

« Putin? At the moment none. He will only negotiate when he starts losing and now he thinks he wins. »

Younger has finally come to the conclusion that his mint tea is strong enough and fishes the tea bag from his glass.

« We will have to acknowledge – however difficult – that Russia fears for its safety and we will have to listen to that if we want to come to a long -term solution. But that does not relieve us of the need to put Putin under pressure. »

In the meantime, Europe is on the sidelines?

« That is not fair. But you are right, Europe must find a way to get a voice in those negotiations. And there is a big problem: Europe has none hard power. In the world of Trump and Putin hard power – Military power – your entrance ticket. And we decided to ours after the Cold War hard power take out the door. Idiot, but we did it. Now we have to get it back. And we don’t have to be defeatistic about that. Europe is twelve times as rich as Russia, we really don’t have to switch to a war economy. Defense editions are still rising too slowly, but I think we have found the way up. Although Brussels is another problem, with its ridiculous and arrogant approach to tech companies. ”

What do you mean by that?

« Safety is based on two things. One: military capacity. And two: in the front are in the development of new technologies. That second point is even more important than the first. And what do we do? We do with the unnecessary regulation of the tech companies, so that we know for sure that we will never develop a healthy tech sector in Europe. »

‘Good’ is every option that makes it possible for a significant part of Ukraine to be able to continue as an independent state

Are you talking about the Digital Services Act, which has to restrict American social media?

« Crazy work, really idiot. That is something that will really have to change. »

But there are those rules because social media have enormous influence, you can’t just let the tech bosses go their own way?

« Like many people, I am worried about unelected tycoons who tell our children what to think. Got it. But regulate within the context of the international competition that is going on. You can ask for insight into all internet cookies that companies use. Has that also made someone safer? I would say: no. Does it smaller that a small internet company in Europe makes a breakthrough because of the enormous costs of this? I would say yes. Our companies must be able to grow and innovate. « 

In the meantime, Europe also has to pull the leg, you say.

« First of all, we have to put our energy in Trump. The American military aid for Ukraine is still the most important, so we have to keep Trump in the competition. But at the same time we have to think about what we are going to do without the Americans. Even with a re -election of Biden, Ukraine would ultimately have become the problem of Europe. »

And what can Europe do itself?

« Originally everyone in Ukraine screamed for more weapons and ammunition, now it is about helping Ukraine to help themselves. In the meantime, the country has built up a huge military industrial complex. Now it is about money, resources and infrastructure. And that is what we Europeans can contribute. It is starting to become a Europe -shaped problem. »

If a sustainable peace is not feasible, do we race on a frozen conflict?

« That would be a good outcome. » Good « is every option that makes it possible for a significant part of Ukraine to be able to continue as an independent state. »

If the war in Ukraine is frozen, will Putin focus on Europe?

« Putin will not immediately move to Warsaw. That is not the case. »

The most heard scenario is a raid on the Baltic States.

« If we were to abandon Ukraine, the Russian armed forces need for at least five years to recover. But I think Putin will transfer the baton to my former opponents in the secret services, and a mean hybrid campaign will start. Putin has the name to be a big strategist. He is not this war. He is an opportunist too. »

So do we get five years of instability, from hybrid warfare?

« Yes, exactly. But this would happen anyway. This is the new normal. The situation we had first was artificial, the result of the American Unipolar Moment (the American force majeure in the world, ed.). That would stop anyway. That is my privileged experience as a spy: my world was always so. Our Think that we could handle that very well if we want.  »

Our enemies have not received that memo about ‘the end of history’ and the victory of democracy

The multipolar world that Putin dreams of.

“Yes, Putin is good for living in the world of Peace of Westphalia (1648, ed.), In which power is justice. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping even literally speaks about the Westphalian treaty. And I think Donald Trump is sympathetic to the idea of ​​strong men of the center. So we have to learn that again. « 

What is the sphere of influence of Europe?

Younger laughs: “I think Europe would be a good start. But seriously, I think we should be more active. On the western Balkans. In the relationship with Turkey. And if I were the French intelligence chief, I would be intensively concerned with North Africa. Europe is strongly influenced by what happens there, both positively and negatively. Principle: that’s how you have to do it. « 

Europe must go for self -interest and no longer talk about human rights?

« I find that contrast between values ​​and interests rather sterile. It is no longer in our interest to no longer be there. That does not mean that I, as a former intelligence officer, preach completely relativism, I do believe that our democracy is better. We just have to acknowledge that both our opponents and allies can have a different vision. »

Will the new hostile world remain upset between the Western secret services in that new hostile world?

« I don’t see any signs that it is taking. And that would surprise me very much. »

What do you mean?

“It is all well anchored, hardwired. The collaboration is based on the starting point that the exchange of information is not politized. People understand that if you do, you quickly destroy something very valuable that originated during the Second World War. And it is also a reciprocal system. The US is dominant, but Europe also gives a lot back. But two things have shocked me. That the US temporarily stopped the information to Ukraine at the beginning of this year – that had immediate consequences for the war. And that Trump fired a number of secret services. That is asking for mistakes. If you dismiss people who tell you things that you don’t want to hear, that’s a recipe for failures.  »

When did you realize for the first time that a new era had arrived?

« After Putin’s speech In Munich, in 2007 (in which the Russian President criticized the West, ed.) Then I understood that the easy -going assumption that democracy had overcome and we could now focus on fun things, rested on quicksand. « 

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