Forecasts for all the world’s savings, given over the head
The S&P Global Financial Agency announced on Friday that it reviews all its macroeconomic forecasts, against the backdrop of Customs announced by President Donald Trump on Wednesday, a decision that will probably feed the fears of a new wave of credit ratings.
The size and extent of the new rates have exceeded the most expectations. Revised forecasts will be advertised next week, although initial estimates include inflation increase in the US almost 4% by the end of the year, compared to a 3% forecast level. Also, the impact on the US economy will depend on the level of retrival measures and how the income is used from customs duties, especially if they will finance tax reductions, informed S&P.
Even in a scenario in which there are fiscal reductions and ‘relatively modest’ retrival measures, GDP growth will probably be three to four-point decisions lower than the most recent forecasts of the agency.
‘We still do not see a recession as defined by NBER (depth, duration, broad dispersion of weakness, not just two consecutive quarters of decreased economic activity) in the next 12 months. But we admit that the subjective probability of a recession in the next 12 months has now climbed to 30%-35%, from 25%in March ‘, the agency appreciates.
And in the rest of the world, you will probably worsen the growth forecasts.
The big savings, such as the euro area and China, will probably have lower adjustments, about a quarter percentage per year, while the lighter economies, which depend on the US commercial point of view, will probably record wider reviews.
« This is the case, for example, for Ireland and Switzerland in Europe and the rapid growth in the Asia-Pacific region, » S&P explained.
The analysts of the Agency expect other countries in the following days to respond, by various methods, to the customs duties announced by President Donald Trump on Wednesday. ‘These potential retrival measures will put additional pressure on the evolution of the economy’, warns S&P.
