Forecast for the growth of tourist flow in Russia and abroad
The volume of the visiting tourist market this year can increase by 5–8%, the internal one – by 10-15%. The increase in travel abroad is restrained by the restrictions on traveling for part of the population and logistics difficulties, although the strengthening of the ruble and the development of air traffic increase their availability. The main driver of the domestic market is budget travelers.
The number of tourist trips abroad in 2025 can grow by 5-8%, in Russia – by 10-15%, they predict the NEO consulting company. In natural terms, the indicators, based on these analysts, have reached 28.4–29.2 million and 101.2–105.8 million trips, respectively. Yandex travel has a similar forecast. According to the FSB border service, for the first quarter of 2025, the Russians made 5.57 million travel abroad, of which 2.24 million for tourism. For a year by the year, the indicators increased by 4.6% and 10.7%, respectively. The number of guests in the means of accommodation within the country in January -March 2025, according to Rosstat, amounted to 18.3 million people, adding 5% a year to the year.
Oksana Bulakh, commercial director of the Alean tour operator, says that in January -May 2025, the demand for traveling around Russia increased within 10% of the year by the year. The island notes that the volume of reservations abroad for June -December of the same year increased by 24% year by the year. In the overall structure of demand, they account for 17%, against 15% in 2024. Oleg Kozyrev, marketing director of Travelata.ru, says the demand for package tours abroad increased by 17% per year. In the first four months of the year, the head of the international projects “fly.ru”, in the first four months of the year, noticed the increase in demand for foreign tours by 27.3% a year by the year and counts on the maintenance of the trend.
The Neo Business Development Partner Albina Koryagina notes that the growth of the exit market is restrained by the actual prohibition of traveling abroad for civil servants and military, high cost of traveling, limited by the amount of available directions, difficulties in obtaining Schengen visas, blocking abroad of Russian bank cards. The visiting market, according to the expert, can grow mainly due to trips to the countries of Asia and the Middle East. The island notes that in January -April of 2025, the demand for Oman grew by 90%, Vietnam – by 50%, Cambodia – by 40%. The growth, according to the representative of the service, is largely provided with the expansion of the route network of carriers.
An important role for the exit market is played by a reduction in the exchange rate, adds Voronin’s love. The availability of trips abroad has grown. The average cost of air tickets to far abroad countries purchased in January -April, according to Yandex Travels, amounted to 49.1 thousand rubles, decreasing by 3% year by the year. Inside the country, the indicator grew by 5%, to 13.7 thousand rubles. Accommodation abroad for the year, according to Ostrovka, has risen on average by 4%, to 9.8 thousand rubles. per night, inside the country – by 11%, up to 5.6 thousand rubles.
Mrs. Koryagin calls the development of individual directions – Baikal, Altai, and the North Caucasus for the domestic market. But, she notes, the stream grows mainly due to budget tourists, including car travelers. High inflation can negatively affect them: under the pressure of real income reduction, spending on travels can decrease, the expert said. Among other problems, Albina Koryagin identifies infrastructure wear, an increase in the cost of its creation and shortage of personnel.
Mrs. Bulala calls the restraint a limited message between neighboring regions: tourism develops largely due to short -term weekend trips, usually in nearby locations. Voronin’s love notes that this year the domestic market can have an additional negative effect on the pollution of Anapa’s beaches after the mazut spill at the end of last year. But in the future, the growth of tourist flow will remain. In the framework of the optimistic scenario, Neo expects that the number of trips around the country in 2033 will reach 120-140 million, pessimistic – 100–110 million.
