Five weeks of Trump in the White House, what happens to the US economy?

What happens to the American economy? The president announced 25% duties against the European Union which – he said – « was formed to screw the United States ». Yet for now the taking of Trumonomics on the « animal spirits » of the Americans seems strangely weak. Five weeks after the return of the New York immobiliarist to the White House, so much the investors that families transmit if anything, signs of discomfort: they almost suffered from an unspecified malaise, which could fade suddenly or evolve into something more serious.

In America growth and investments continue, without a doubt. But from the oath of Donald Trump, the financial markets and consumers have provided almost only answers with a « less » sign in front. The dollar 2.5% has slipped on the average of the other six main reserve currencies, a symptom of an exit of capital from American titles. He lost 0.74% too The S&Pthe stock index that alone is worth almost half of the gross product of the planet. Wall Street from Trump's return is a trend in contrast to the European indexesinstead they all get up. On Wednesday evening the German Dax had grown 8.6% from January 20, the FTSE MIB in Piazza Affari of 8.5% and the Euro Eurostoxx 600 of 7%.

The threat of duties and the effects on bags

Everything can change quickly, of course. The duties announced on European products also threaten the Lists of Frankfurt, or Milan, especially before their scope is precise. And of course The apparent strength of Europe compared to New York In this glimpse of 2025 it can simply be a rebound, after a long season in which the squares of the old continent had remained behind.
Yet the negative signs in the United States are also noticed by looking elsewhere. It is not surprising the Bitcoinwho lost three hundred billion dollars from the oath of value although Trump promises to put him in the sovereign reserves. Instead, the performance of the American government bonds, despite the inflation that does not descend and the public debt that rises: as if someone started suspecting that America will brake and the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates cuts.

The mood of American consumers

Because the problem is always at the basis, in the behavior of businesses and families. In particular, the mood of American consumers – four fifths of the product of the world's largest economy – seems to have become gloomy. Suddenly.
In February the conference board index Board abruptly descended as regards the current situation but above all the future one (here is on levels compatible with an incoming recession), while inflation expectations date back to 6%. It must take something more than the increase in the eggs with four dollars, one because of the Airport. The survey among the families of the University of Michigan is also in clear fall, especially on long -term expectations. And if they explain that it is early to evaluate the impact of Trump, they are probably giving you a superficial and uninformed reading: both the conference board and the University of Michigan report that families cite the duties of the president as the main cause of their fears about the future.
Ordinary people also understand that the increase in samples at the border is likely to translate into higher prices in supermarkets or autosaloni. They too know that American factories mount Chinese components, now burdened with a 10%balzelle. So the chaos of the threats and announcements launched and withdrawn in series by the president an effect begins to have it: it neurizes the Americans themselves, sowing an uncertainty that can only quell their « animal spirits ».